ARSENAL > Trade war

Trade war

Macro
Definition
Escalating round of tariffs and trade restrictions between countries. The 2018-2019 US-China trade war imposed tariffs on $370B+ of goods. Studies estimate it lowered US GDP by 0.3% and added ~$1,200/year in cost to the average household.

Markets typically dislike trade-war headlines (uncertainty, supply-chain disruption) but settle once specifics are known. Long-run effects: supply-chain reshuffling, reshoring, "friend-shoring."
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