Recession Indicators Dashboard
US recession risk from seven macro indicators, from 0% to 100%. For market-drawdown risk, see Crash Risk.
About this tool
Seven macro indicators feed a weighted average: the yield curve, Sahm rule, jobless claims, Chicago Fed activity index, high-yield credit spreads, consumer sentiment and real money supply. Nonnegative weights and the warning boundary are fitted to historical outcomes; weak factors may receive zero weight.
Readings run from 0% to 100% and describe economic conditions. They are not the probability of a recession. Each factor shows its hit rate, sample count and weight; methodology explains the test.
Crash Risk covers market drawdowns. US Economic Regime compares growth and inflation.
Which indicators carry the most weight?
The cards are ordered by their fitted weights. The model compares combinations against later historical periods; the research audit shows results, misses and selection limits.
What is US recession risk right now?
The gauge shows the fitted combination of current factors. Live feeds refresh on page load; a dated saved reading remains visible if a feed is unavailable.
What is the Sahm rule?
The three-month average unemployment rate minus the lowest three-month average in the previous 12 months. A rise of 0.5 percentage points is its recession threshold. It primarily detects deterioration already underway, which limits its usefulness as an advance warning.
Does an inverted yield curve always mean recession?
No. An inversion can signal expectations of weaker growth and future rate cuts, but it can give false alarms and does not establish when a recession will begin.
What does the historical hit rate measure?
The share of recessions preceded by a factor reading of at least 50% during the prior 12 complete months. It does not count false alarms or establish forecast accuracy. The source data can be revised.
Is recession risk the same as stock market crash risk?
No. A recession is a broad decline in economic activity; a market crash is a sharp fall in stock prices. They can occur at different times.