Recession Risk Calculator
Probability of a US economic recession (GDP contraction + rising unemployment, the kind the NBER officially declares) over the next 12 months. Weighted blend of 7 macro leading indicators - hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For market-drawdown risk (stock prices falling, not the economy contracting) see the separate Crash Risk tool.
US economic recession probability
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Indicator scorecardFRED · LIVE
Yield curve inversion historyFRED
Shaded red regions show when the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread went negative (inverted). Every one of those windows since 1969 preceded a recession, except the 2022-24 period which has so far only produced slowing growth.