Recession Risk Calculator
Odds of a US recession (the kind the NBER declares) in the next 12 months. Built from 7 leading indicators, each showing its real hit rate. For market-drawdown risk, see Crash Risk.
About this tool
A live probability that the US economy enters recession within 12 months, computed as a weighted blend of seven leading indicators: the yield curve, the Sahm rule, a composite of leading data, high-yield credit spreads, jobless claims, consumer sentiment and real money supply.
No single indicator survives contact with every cycle, which is the argument for an ensemble: the yield curve called recessions the Sahm rule missed and vice versa. Read the output as odds, not prophecy; a 30% probability means recessions happen from that reading roughly one time in three.
What is the Sahm rule?
A recession marker created by economist Claudia Sahm: when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises half a point off its 12-month low, a recession has essentially always already begun. It detects rather than predicts, which makes it a valuable confirmation signal.
Does an inverted yield curve always mean recession?
It has preceded every US recession since the 1960s with one debatable false alarm, but with lags ranging from 6 months to 2 years. Inversion says the market expects rate cuts; it does not time the downturn.
How accurate are recession models?
Modest, honestly. Economists as a profession have missed most recessions in real time, which is exactly why this tool blends independent signals and reports a probability instead of a verdict.