A taste of what readers think - vote here, then see every market-sentiment poll.
Market Sentiment
Vote on the questions traders are actually debating - recession odds, crash risk, the Fed’s next move, Bitcoin’s year-end price and the AI-bubble question - and see how the crowd is leaning in real time.
Reader pollsUpdated as you vote
Vote on the questions traders are debating right now. Your votes are stored on this device and aggregated with the running count.
Sentiment only - reader votes, not a forecast or financial advice. Tallies blend your device’s vote into a running seed count, so the bars always show something useful. Not a substitute for your own research.
Equities
Real-time equity index prices and annualized returns across major regions. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.
Global equities indexesLive
Index
Price
1D %
Annualized returns (price only)
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
United States
SPX S&P 500
-
-
-
-
-
-
NDX Nasdaq 100
-
-
-
-
-
-
DJI Dow Jones Industrial
-
-
-
-
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RUT Russell 2000 (small cap)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Global
ACWI MSCI All-Country
-
-
-
-
-
-
VT Vanguard Total World
-
-
-
-
-
-
Europe
VGK FTSE Europe
-
-
-
-
-
-
UKX UK FTSE 100
-
-
-
-
-
-
DAX Germany DAX
-
-
-
-
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-
CAC France CAC 40
-
-
-
-
-
-
Asia / Pacific
EWJ Japan Nikkei 225
-
-
-
-
-
-
MCHI China MSCI
-
-
-
-
-
-
EWY South Korea KOSPI
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-
-
-
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EWH Hong Kong Hang Seng
-
-
-
-
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EWA Australia ASX 200
-
-
-
-
-
-
Emerging Markets
EEM MSCI Emerging Markets
-
-
-
-
-
-
INDA India Sensex (NIFTY 50)
-
-
-
-
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-
EWZ Brazil Bovespa
-
-
-
-
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-
EWT Taiwan TAIEX
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bonds
US Treasury benchmark, investment-grade and high-yield corporate spreads, emerging-market debt, and 13 sovereign 10Y yields with real-yield adjustments.
Bond market yieldsFRED
ICE BofA indices, effective yield
Class
Yield
Spread vs 10Y
UST 10Y US Treasury benchmark
-
-
TIPS 10Y real yield (inflation-adj)
-
real
AAA AAA corporate
-
-
AA AA corporate
-
-
A A corporate
-
-
BBB BBB corporate
-
-
BB BB high yield
-
-
B B high yield
-
-
CCC CCC & below (junk)
-
-
EM Emerging markets
-
-
Sovereign 10Y yieldsFRED
OECD long-term government bond rates
Country
10Y yield
Avg CPI (10Y)
Real yield
🇺🇸 US United States
-
-
-
🇩🇪 DE Germany
-
-
-
🇬🇧 GB United Kingdom
-
-
-
🇯🇵 JP Japan
-
-
-
🇨🇦 CA Canada
-
-
-
🇫🇷 FR France
-
-
-
🇮🇹 IT Italy
-
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🇦🇺 AU Australia
-
-
-
🇨🇭 CH Switzerland
-
-
-
🇪🇸 ES Spain
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-
🇰🇷 KR South Korea
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-
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🇨🇳 CN China
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🇮🇳 IN India
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ETF & Stock Compare
Put any few ETFs or stocks side by side - fees, returns, risk and yield, all in one view. Pick 2 to 4 to compare.
Build comparison0 of 4 columns
Start typing, then pick from the list - searches the entire universe of listed ETFs & stocks by ticker or name. Curated names load instantly; any other ticker pulls its live data when you add it.
Side-by-side comparisonBest in green
Add at least one instrument to start comparing.
Growth of $10,000 over the past 10 yearsIndicative
What this shows. How $10,000 would have grown over the past ~10 years in each fund, based on its historical returns and rescaled so every fund starts at $10,000. It is backward-looking - a record of what already happened, not a forecast of future returns and not a forward projection. The dips are real drawdowns along the way; the Max drawdown row above is the single deepest peak-to-trough fall over the period (e.g. −33% means the balance fell to about $6,700 from its prior high before recovering). Dividends reinvested, before tax; representative for the built-in names and computed from actual history for any ticker you add.
The curated names are representative snapshots refreshed periodically; any other ticker you add is computed live from Yahoo Finance (price, trailing returns, max drawdown, beta, yield and a growth-of-$10k path from its actual history) - some fields (e.g. expense ratio, top holdings) only show when the feed provides them. Returns and risk are indicative, not live execution quotes, so verify current numbers before trading. "Best" highlights the most favourable value in each row across the selected instruments (lowest fee; highest return, yield or Sharpe; smallest drawdown). Growth of $10,000 is a hypothetical illustration, reinvested and before tax.
Hedge Fund Tracker
The track records of the most famous hedge-fund managers - returns, assets, and whether they have actually beaten the market.
Hedge funds aren't required to disclose returns, so most figures here are compiled from financial-press reporting (LCH Investments / FT, Bloomberg, CNBC, fund letters). Pershing Square is the exception - it's publicly listed with audited NAV. Treat everything else as best-available estimates and verify before relying on a number.
Performance - funds with disclosed track recordsClick a header to sort
Trailing periods are annualized through each fund's most recently reported year; "n/d" = not disclosed. "Beats S&P?" compares the fund's since-inception annualized return to the S&P 500's long-run total return of about 10.5% a year.
Since-inception annualized return vs S&P 500vs ~10.5%/yr
Legendary & now-private fundsReference
These managers are too secretive, closed, or converted to family offices to publish reliable year-by-year returns - shown as historical profiles, not in the table above.
Sources: LCH Investments annual manager rankings (via the Financial Times / Institutional Investor); Pershing Square Holdings audited annual reports and published NAV; Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters and Hedgeweek reporting; fund investor letters; and Gregory Zuckerman's The Man Who Solved the Market for Renaissance. AUM and returns are point-in-time and approximate; hedge funds are not required to disclose performance, so all figures other than Pershing Square are compiled from press reporting and may be revised. Not investment advice.
Crypto
Live spot prices for the top digital assets by market capitalization. Annualized returns computed from earliest available price.
Top 10 by market capLive
Ticker
Market cap
Price
1D %
Annualized returns
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
BTC Bitcoin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ETH Ethereum
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
SOL Solana
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
XRP XRP (Ripple)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BNB BNB (Binance)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ADA Cardano
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
DOGE Dogecoin
-
-
-
-
-
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AVAX Avalanche
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-
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-
-
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TRX TRON
-
-
-
-
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LINK Chainlink
-
-
-
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-
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Commodities
Live spot prices for the most-traded commodities. Annualized returns over 1Y, 5Y, 10Y and max available history.
Top commoditiesLive
Ticker
Price
1D %
Annualized returns
Market cap
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
XAU Gold (GLD)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
XAG Silver (SLV)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
PLAT Platinum (PPLT)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
PALL Palladium (PALL)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
COPPER Copper (CPER)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
WTI WTI crude oil (USO)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BRENT Brent crude oil (BNO)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
NATGAS Natural gas (UNG)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
URAN Uranium (URA)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AGRI Agriculture basket (DBA)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
US Economy
Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit - live from FRED.
Macro health heatmapFRED
GDP
-
loading
CPI
-
loading
Unemployment
-
loading
Fed Funds
-
loading
US Treasuries yield curveLive
FOMC dot plot
US GDPFRED
-
Nominal GDP, current dollars, annualized (updated quarterly)
GDP growthFRED
-
Real GDP, QoQ annualized rate
InflationFRED
-
CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%
Core CPI -
Interest ratesFRED
-
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
Trade balanceFRED
-
Net exports of goods and services, in $ billions (updated quarterly)
US populationFRED
-
Total US resident population, in millions (updated monthly)
Labor market - supply, demand & priceFRED
Unemployment rateSupply
-
% of labor force without a job
Job openings rateDemand
-
Open jobs as % of total employment
Hires rateDemand
-
Monthly hires as % of employment
Real wage growthPrice
-
Median weekly real earnings, year-over-year growth (updated quarterly)
Loan delinquency ratesFRED
Share of balances 30+ days past due at all US commercial banks, by loan type (updated quarterly). Rising delinquencies are an early sign of household stress. Heads up: this is the all-banks 30+ day rate (cards run ~3%). The 7-8% figures in the headlines are a different cut - smaller banks outside the top 100, or the NY Fed's 90+ day "serious delinquency" transition.
Credit cards
-
Mortgages
-
All loans & leases
-
Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days)NY Fed · Q1 2026
Annualized share of balances newly rolling into 90+ days past due, by loan type. Overall, 4.8% of all household debt is now in some stage of delinquency.
Source: NY Fed Household Debt & Credit report, 2026 Q1 (released May 2026). Student-loan figure is a four-quarter moving sum. Curated quarterly; the 30+ day charts above are live from FRED.
Money supply & liquidityFRED
Monetary base (M0)Narrowest
-
Currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed, in $ billions (updated monthly)
Monetary base (M0) growthYoY
-
M0 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Money supply (M2)Broader
-
M2 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Fed balance sheetQE / QT
-
Total Fed assets, in $ trillions (updated weekly)
Government financesFRED
Government spending growthYoY growth
-
Federal spending year-over-year growth, in % (updated quarterly)
Debt / GDPStock
-
Federal debt as % of GDP (updated quarterly)
Federal deficitGap
-
Surplus (+) or deficit (−), in $ billions (updated annually)
Personal savings rateFRED
-
Personal saving as % of disposable income (updated monthly)
Federal spending by categoryLive
Sources: Live data from the US Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS). Figures rounded to the nearest billion. FYTD = fiscal-year-to-date; US fiscal year runs Oct 1 to Sep 30.
Private capital dry powderTop 5 public PEas of Q1 2026
Uncalled committed capital at the largest publicly-traded private-equity managers - the closest free proxy for total US PE dry powder. Sum of these five firms represents ~50-60% of the industry.
BX · Blackstone
$200B
vs Q4: +16%
KKR
$115B
vs Q4: +6%
APO · Apollo
$73B
vs Q4: +9%
BAM · Brookfield
$111B
vs Q4: +1%
ARES · Ares
$156B
vs Q4: +64%
Top 5 combined
$655B
~50-60% of total US private-market dry powder (Bain estimates the industry total at ~$2.5T including all PE/VC/infrastructure)
Source: each firm's most recent quarterly disclosures (uncalled commitments / "available capital"); figures approximate and definitions vary slightly by firm (e.g. Ares' "available capital" spans its credit franchises). Updated quarterly. Industry context: Bain & Co Global Private Equity Report.
Global Economy
GDP share by country and global economic indicators. (FX pairs moved to the dedicated Foreign Exchange page.)
GDP by countryFRED + IMF
Nominal GDP in current US dollars, with each country's share of the ~$110T world total.
World GDPFRED + IMF WEO
-
Global GDP, in $ trillions. Historical actuals: World Bank via FRED (~12-month lag). Current year + forecasts: IMF World Economic Outlook (tagged "IMF est.").
Energy dashboard - nuclear, solar, wind, petroleumIEA / EIA 2024
Global primary energy by category2024
Energy consumption by country2024
Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024; EIA International Energy Statistics; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Figures rounded; updated annually.
US Real Estate Tracker
Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.
Case-Shiller
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loading
Median price
-
loading
30Y rate
-
loading
Starts
-
loading
Permits
-
loading
Supply
-
loading
Home price indexFRED
-
Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted)
30Y mortgage rateFRED
-
Weekly average, 30-year fixed
Housing starts & permitsFRED
-
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Permits (gold) lead starts (blue) by 1–2 months - when gold turns down before blue, construction is rolling over.
Months of supplyFRED
-
How long inventory would last at current sales pace.
Seller's mkt <4 moBalanced 4–6 moBuyer's mkt >6 mo
Median days on marketVelocity
-
Median days a listing sits before going under contract. Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H2 2025 · Updated 2026-01
Sector
Cap rate
10Y Avg
Spread vs 10Y Tsy
Indus Industrial
-
-
-
Multi Multifamily
-
-
-
Office Office
-
-
-
Retail Retail
-
-
-
Hotel Hospitality
-
-
-
Portfolio Backtester
Pick any stocks or ETFs, set weights, pick a time horizon (preset or custom years), and backtest against the S&P 500. Toggle dividend reinvestment on or off.
Portfolio builder
Pro syntax · simulated history: SPXSIM (S&P 500 to 1871), TLTSIM / IEFSIM (Treasuries from 1953), TBILLSIM (cash from 1934) · leverage & fees: QQQ?L=3&E=0.95 = 3x QQQ with a 0.95% fee
ON
Allocation
Growth of $10,000
PortfolioS&P 500
Drawdown
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performance
Annual returns
PortfolioS&P 500
Rolling 3-year return
PortfolioS&P 500
Needs at least 3.5 years of overlapping data - extend the time horizon to see rolling returns.
Worst drawdowns
Efficient frontier & optimizer
Run a backtest with 2+ holdings first, then click Build frontier: 6,000 random weight combinations of your assets are tested over the same window. Suggested allocations (max Sharpe, minimum volatility, risk parity, equal weight) appear below - one click applies them to the builder.
US Economic Regime Detector
Growth × inflation framework inspired by Ray Dalio's macro regime model. Classifies the current US environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.
Framework: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Current regimeLive
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
Regime classification & what to hold
The four regimes are the combinations of the growth and inflation backdrop — e.g. "growth+ · inflation−" means growth running above trend while inflation falls. Winners are the assets that have historically outperformed in that regime; losers are the ones that tend to lag.
Goldilocksgrowth+ · inflation−
WinnersEquities, credit, growth stocks
LosersGold, commodities, cash
Reflationgrowth+ · inflation+
WinnersCommodities, value, TIPS, EM
LosersLong-duration bonds
Deflationgrowth− · inflation−
WinnersTreasuries, cash, quality bonds
LosersEquities, commodities, credit
Stagflationgrowth− · inflation+
WinnersGold, TIPS, commodities, cash
LosersEquities, long bonds, credit
+ scoring methodology
Growth axis
Input: GDP YoY (GDPC1)
Rule: > 2% → growth+ · ≤ 2% → growth−
Score:tanh((GDP − 2) / 4)
Inflation axis
Input: CPI YoY (CPIAUCSL)
Rule: > 2.5% → inflation+ · ≤ 2.5% → inflation−
Score:tanh((CPI − 2.5) / 3)
Regime history (1970–present)FRED
GoldilocksReflationDeflationStagflation
Regime rotation backtestLive
Regime rotation- applies the live detector. Rebalances quarterly using last quarter's regime call, mirroring what an investor could have actually done in real time.
Perfect foresight- cheats. Rebalances using next quarter's regime call as if you already knew it (impossible in practice - shown as the theoretical ceiling the detector could reach).
S&P 500 buy & hold- the passive benchmark. 100% S&P 500 through the full period, no decisions.
Asset mix per regime
Goldilocks
STOCKS 50%
BONDS 50%
Reflation
STOCKS 50%
COMMOD 50%
Deflation
BONDS 50%
CASH 50%
Stagflation
COMMOD 50%
CASH 50%
-
Growth vs inflation signalsFRED
-
Recession Dodge StrategyAlternative
An alternative detector that turns one forward-looking signal, the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), into a simple binary call: stay fully invested in the market when financial conditions are loose, step aside to cash when they tighten. Risk-on / risk-off, no four-quadrant rotation.
Why "recession dodge". NFCI is loose (≤ 0) about 71% of the time historically, so the strategy is invested in the market in the large majority of quarters and only steps aside to cash during real credit-market stress (2008, brief 2020, brief 2022). The whole edge comes from sitting out those few high-stress windows (picking the right side of recessions) rather than trying to time anything in between. Tight financial conditions tend to lead drawdowns, so NFCI gives you a few weeks of warning.
In the market
- OR -
Hold cash
Current Recession Dodge call
Detecting…
Reading the latest NFCI to decide: stay invested or hold cash.
-
+ scoring methodology
Stay invested
Input: Chicago Fed NFCI (NFCI)
Rule: NFCI ≤ 0 (loose conditions) → hold the S&P 500
Idea: credit and markets are calm - own the risk asset
Idea: credit stress leads drawdowns - dodge it in T-bills
Series: NFCI · S&P 500 total return · 3-month T-bill (cash). Backtest window starts when NFCI begins (≈ 1971). Binary risk-on / risk-off: 100% S&P when NFCI ≤ 0, 100% cash when NFCI > 0, rebalanced quarterly on the prior quarter's reading.
US Economic Calendar
Every major US economic release - Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, PCE, FOMC, GDP, retail sales, ISM, jobless claims and more - with release times in ET, impact ratings, and the previous print from FRED. Dates are recurring estimates; exact dates are pinned per release as data lands.
Impact: High Medium LowET
Building calendar…
Schedule: hand-curated recurring rules. Previous prints and actuals: FRED (live on the deployed site). Surprise compares each actual to the prior print. Times in ET.
Recession Risk Calculator
Probability of a US economic recession (GDP contraction + rising unemployment, the kind the NBER officially declares) over the next 12 months. Weighted blend of 7 macro leading indicators - hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For market-drawdown risk (stock prices falling, not the economy contracting) see the separate Crash Risk tool.
US economic recession probability
-
loading
LowModerateHigh
Indicator scorecardFRED · LIVE
Yield curve inversion historyFRED
Shaded red regions show when the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread went negative (inverted). Every one of those windows since 1969 preceded a recession, except the 2022-24 period which has so far only produced slowing growth.
Crash Risk Calculator
Probability of a major US stock-market drawdown (20%+) ahead. Weighted blend of 6 strictly-leading indicators - each one moves BEFORE drawdowns, never with or after them. Three short-lead stress signals (HY credit spread, 10Y−2Y yield curve, NFCI financial conditions) and three long-lead valuation signals (CAPE, EY spread, dividend yield). Hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For US economic-recession risk (GDP / unemployment) see the separate Recession Risk tool.
US drawdown probability
-
loading
CheapFairBubble
Reading live valuation metrics against their 30-year history…
Indicator scorecardShiller · FRED · LIVE
Composite probability historyLive
-
Composite drawdown probability over time, recomputed each month from the same threshold table the live gauge uses. Spikes above 60% lined up with 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007–08, and 2022; dips below 25% lined up with 1982 and 2009.
Compound Interest
Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.
The most-watched stock traders in the US Senate and House - current holdings and most recent trades per member, color-coded by party, with links to each official congressional website.
Most-watched congressional traders
Live tracker of current holdings and most recent trades for each profiled US Senator and Representative. Click any ticker for its chart.
Earnings & IPO Calendar
The week ahead for US equities - which companies report earnings (with the consensus EPS estimate) and which new names are about to go public. A quick way to spot volatility events before they hit your holdings.
Upcoming earningsNext 14 days
Date
Symbol
When
EPS est.
Revenue est.
Upcoming IPOsNext 30 days
Date
Symbol
Company
Exchange
Price
Shares
Data from Finnhub (earnings consensus and the IPO schedule). Estimates and IPO terms are revised often and can be withdrawn - confirm against the company's filings before trading. "When" is Pre-mkt (before the open), After close, or Midday.
Rental Property Analyzer
Institutional-style underwriting for a single rental: cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, IRR - with a full value-add story (renovation period, stabilization period, exit cap, interior + exterior capex) and a year-by-year cash flow projection.
Cap rate
0%
Cash-on-cash
0%
Monthly cash flow
$0
IRR (hold period)
0%
Core property assumptionsSteady-state
FinancingDebt & equity
Value-add assumptionsRenovation & capex
The renovation/stabilization ramp and capital spend. Leave at defaults (or set current = renovated = stabilized rent and capex to 0) for a straightforward buy-and-hold.
Cash flow & equity over timePer year
Year-by-year projection
Year
Rent
Op. exp.
NOI
Debt svc
Cash flow
Property value
Loan balance
Equity
IRR uses the exit-cap assumption to mark the property at sale (NOI at exit ÷ exit cap), net of selling costs and remaining loan balance. Renovation period = months with no rent and full capex burn; stabilization period = months with current-rent inflow ramping toward stabilized rent. Excludes income taxes, depreciation recapture and 1031 exchanges.
Mortgage Calculator
Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.
Monthly debt service
$0
Total interest
$0
Total paid
$0
all payments + down
Loan-to-value
0%
Loan inputs
$
%
Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
%
$
%/yr
Amortization chart
15-year vs 30-year comparison
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization schedule
Year
Month
Payment
Principal
Interest
Balance
Home equity
Home value
Unreal. appr.
Total equity
Buy vs Rent Property Calculator
Should you buy a home or rent the same place and invest the difference? Plug in real numbers for one specific property and see who comes out ahead, year by year.
▸How this works
Use the same property for both sides - the home's listing price on the buy side, its asking rent on the rent side. Sally buys the home; Jack rents the very same place. Both start with the same savings and earn the same monthly income, so it's a true apples-to-apples comparison.
Sally deploys her down payment plus closing costs into the home and keeps the rest invested. She pays mortgage P&I plus property taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance every month. Jack invests his entire starting savings and pays the asking rent each month.
Each month both characters take their identical income, pay their housing cost, and invest the leftover at your chosen return rate (e.g. S&P 500 ~8% long-run). End-of-horizon net worth = invested portfolio (both) + home equity (Sally only).
Breakeven year
-
When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Jack's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Advantage
-
At end of time horizon
Personal assumptionsSame for both Sally and Jack
$
$/mo
yrs
%
Sally's home purchase
$
%
%
yrs
%
$/mo
$/mo
$/mo
%/yr
%
%
%/yr
$0
Jack's rental life
$
%
Net worth over time
Monthly cost comparison
Year-by-year comparison
Year
Sally cost/yr
Jack cost/yr
Sally's loan equity
Sally's appreciation
Sally's investments
Sally total NW
Jack total NW
Who wins
Buy vs Lease Car Calculator
Donald pays cash, Frank finances, Nancy rolls leases - all on identical income, savings, and hold period. Each one invests whatever income is left over after their own car payments and expenses every month; ending net worth = portfolio + car equity.
Donald (buy cash)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Frank (finance)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Nancy (lease)
$0
Invested portfolio only
Best scenario
-
Who wins, by how much
Donald total / mo
$0
insurance + maintenance only (paid cash)
Frank total / mo
$0
loan + insurance + maintenance
Nancy total / mo
$0
lease + insurance + fees
Personal assumptionsSame for Donald, Frank, and Nancy
$
$/mo
yrs
%
%
%
24%
VehicleSame car for both scenarios
$
%
mi
$/mo
%/yr
$0
Tax incentives & business use
%
Pick an EV status or LLC category to see tax savings applied to the winner.
Donald buys (cash)
$/yr
$0
Frank finances
%
%
mo
$/yr
$0/mo
Nancy leases
$/mo
mo
$
$
$
/yr
$/mi
$700/mo
Net worth over time
Cumulative out-of-pocket cost
Year-by-year breakdown
Year
Donald net worth
Frank net worth
Nancy net worth
Donald spent
Frank spent
Nancy spent
FIRE & Retirement Calculator
When can you reach financial independence? Enter what you have, what you save, and what you'll spend in retirement - see the year your portfolio can fund your life on the 4% rule, plus your Coast FIRE number. Everything is in today's dollars (use a real, after-inflation return).
FIRE = a portfolio big enough to cover your living costs for good. Your target is 25× your annual spending (the 4% rule). The tabs below pressure-test it.
Your FI number
$0
Years to FI
-
FI age
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Coast FIRE number
$0
FIRE styleshortcuts - or just type your own spending below
yrs
$
$
$
%
%
Path to financial independenceFI number
Contributions Total balance (green above blue = growth) FI number (target)
Year-by-year projection
Age
Year
Contributed (yr)
Growth (yr)
Balance
% to FI
All figures are in today's dollars, so use a real (after-inflation) return - the long-run real return of a 100% stock portfolio has been ~7%, a 60/40 ~5%. The 4% rule (25× spending) comes from the Trinity study and assumes a ~30-year retirement; longer retirements or early retirement argue for 3.25–3.5%. Coast FIRE assumes a target retirement age of 65 and no further contributions. Excludes Social Security, pensions and taxes on withdrawals.
Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
A single average return hides the risk. This runs 1,000 randomized market paths through your accumulation and retirement years - so instead of one tidy number you see the full fan of outcomes and the real probability your money lasts. Everything is in today's dollars (use a real return).
Chance money lasts
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Median at retirement
$0
Median at end
$0
Unlucky case (10th %)
$0
Market outlook
$
$
yrs
$
yrs
%
%
1,000 paths, drawn from a normal return each year.
Fan of outcomestoday's dollars
10th–90th percentile 25th–75th percentile Median path
Each of 1,000 paths draws an independent annual return from a normal distribution with your mean and volatility, compounding the balance while adding contributions before retirement and subtracting spending after. "Chance money lasts" is the fraction of paths that never hit zero during retirement. Real markets have fat tails, autocorrelation and sequence risk that a normal distribution understates, so treat this as a guide, not a guarantee. Results are seeded so they're stable as you adjust inputs.
Safe Withdrawal Rate - The 4% Rule, Backtested
Would your retirement have survived the Depression, the 1970s stagflation, the dot-com bust and 2008? This runs your withdrawal plan through every historical starting year since 1928 using real S&P 500 and Treasury returns adjusted for actual inflation - the same rolling-period test behind the famous 4% rule.
Historical success rate
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Periods tested
0
Median ending (real)
$0
Worst case
$0
$
%
yrs
Try
Every historical retirement, overlaidtoday's dollars
Survived Ran out of money Median path - each line is one starting year's inflation-adjusted balance.
Uses annual S&P 500 total returns and 10-year US Treasury returns (Damodaran/NYU Stern) deflated by actual CPI inflation (BLS), 1928–2025. Each rolling period withdraws an inflation-adjusted amount from a portfolio rebalanced annually to your stock/bond mix; a period "fails" if the balance hits zero before the end. The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study; it held up across nearly all historical 30-year windows but is not guaranteed - future returns, longer retirements and a 2025-style starting valuation can differ. Ignores fees, taxes and Social Security.
Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) Calculator
See the power of reinvesting dividends versus taking the cash - the income snowball that compounds share count over decades. Toggle the tax drag to see how much a taxable account loses to dividend taxes each year versus an IRA or 401(k).
Value (reinvested)
$0
Total dividends
$0
Reinvesting adds
$0
Lost to tax drag
$0
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Reinvest vs take the cash
Dividends reinvested Dividends taken as cash
Annual dividend income
The income snowball: dividends paid each year as your reinvested share count grows.
Models a starting price of $100/share scaled to your investment. Each year, dividends are paid on shares held (growing at the dividend-growth rate), taxed if the account is taxable, and the after-tax amount buys more shares at the year-end price. The cash path holds shares constant and accumulates after-tax dividends without reinvesting. Tax drag is the value a taxable account loses versus the same holding in a tax-advantaged account. Excludes share-price volatility, fees and dividend cuts; assumes dividends stay qualified.
House Affordability Calculator
How much house can you actually afford? Lenders cap your housing payment at ~28% of gross income (front-end) and your total debt at ~36% (back-end). Enter your income and debts and we'll solve for the max home price - the inverse of a mortgage calculator.
Max home price
$0
Loan amount
$0
Monthly payment
$0
Down payment
0%
Lending standard
$
$
$
%
yrs
%
%
$/mo
Monthly payment breakdown
Affordable price vs mortgage rate
How your max home price shrinks as rates rise - the dot marks your current rate.
Front-end ratio caps housing cost (principal, interest, tax, insurance, HOA, PMI) at a share of gross income; back-end ratio caps housing plus all other debt. The binding constraint sets your price. PMI of 0.5%/yr is added automatically when the down payment is under 20%. This estimates borrowing capacity, not a recommendation - many buyers choose to spend well below the max. Excludes maintenance, utilities and closing costs.
Debt Payoff: Snowball vs Avalanche
List your debts and an extra monthly payment. The avalanche method attacks the highest interest rate first (mathematically cheapest); the snowball attacks the smallest balance first (psychologically easier). See which clears your debt faster and how much interest each saves - both keep your total monthly payment constant and roll each cleared debt's payment into the next.
Total debt
$0
Debt-free in
-
Interest (avalanche)
$0
Avalanche saves
$0
Your debts
Debt nameBalanceAPR %Min /mo
$
Method comparison
Balance over time
Avalanche Snowball
Your payoff plan - what to pay, and when
Each month, every debt accrues interest at APR÷12, minimum payments are made on all active debts, and all remaining money (extra payment plus the minimums freed up by already-paid debts) is thrown at the target debt - highest APR for avalanche, smallest balance for snowball. Avalanche always pays the least total interest. Snowball can feel better because you clear individual debts sooner. If a debt's minimum doesn't cover its monthly interest, it will never amortize - raise the minimum or extra payment.
Roth vs Traditional IRA / 401(k)
Pay tax now or later? Roth contributions are taxed today and grow tax-free; Traditional contributions are deducted today and taxed when you withdraw. This puts the same dollars into each and shows what you actually keep at the end of retirement, after tax - plus what each costs you in take-home pay today.
2025 contribution limits.IRA: $7,000/yr ($8,000 if 50+) combined across Roth + Traditional. The Roth IRA phases out at higher income (~$150k single / $236k married); a Traditional IRA is always allowed, but its deduction phases out if you (or a spouse) have a workplace plan. 401(k): $23,500/yr ($31,000 if 50+) - both Roth and Traditional versions, with no income limit.
What you can hold. An IRA can hold almost anything a brokerage can - stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, bonds, CDs (and, through a self-directed custodian, even real estate or crypto) - but not life insurance or collectibles (art, gems, most coins). A 401(k) is limited to the plan's menu, usually a short list of index and target-date funds, unless it offers a self-directed brokerage window.
Roth (after tax)
$0
Traditional (after tax)
$0
Winner
-
Total contributed
$0
$
yrs
yrs
%
%
%
After-tax value in retirement
Roth advantage vs your retirement tax rate
The higher your retirement tax rate, the more Roth's tax-free withdrawals are worth versus Traditional - the dot marks your assumption.
Both paths contribute the same dollar amount each year from your current age to your retirement age. Roth is funded with after-tax dollars and withdrawn tax-free; Traditional is contributed pre-tax (so it costs less take-home today), grows tax-deferred, and is taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal. We show the actual after-tax balance each leaves you at retirement - no hypothetical side account. Ignores income limits, employer match, required minimum distributions, state taxes and future tax-law changes. An employer match (free money) makes capturing the 401(k) match worth it regardless of which type you choose.
Net Worth Tracker
Add up what you own and subtract what you owe - add custom items like jewelry, art or crypto - then see how your net worth ranks against US households (Fed Survey of Consumer Finances) and against every adult on Earth (UBS Global Wealth Report), overall and for your age group.
Net worth
$0
Total assets
$0
Total liabilities
$0
US percentile
-
Assets - what you own$0
Liabilities - what you owe$0
Asset composition
Where you stand
Future net worth projection10-year
Type an expected percentage return for each asset, year by year (negative is fine). Each asset compounds on its own; liabilities are held at today's balance. The chart projects your net worth from now through year 10.
Projected net worth in 10 years
$0
US household net worth percentiles and age-group medians from the Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (released October 2023; figures via DQYDJ). Net worth = assets minus liabilities. Percentile is interpolated from the published distribution and is an estimate. Median US household net worth in 2022 was about $192,000; the top 10% started near $1.9M and the top 1% near $13.7M. Global figures: UBS Global Wealth Report 2023 (per adult, year-end 2022): global median wealth ~$8,654, top 10% from ~$137,000, top 1% from ~$1.08M. US net worth is per household and global per adult, so the two aren't strictly comparable.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Estimator
Selling a loser to bank a capital loss saves tax now - but it also lowers your cost basis, so most of that saving is deferred, not erased. This estimates the real, honest value: the up-front saving you can reinvest, minus the tax you'll eventually owe, plus the rate arbitrage on the $3,000 ordinary-income offset.
Tax saved this year
$0
Loss carried forward
$0
Net benefit (today's $)
$0
Value kept per $ loss
0%
$
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
The economics, in today's dollars
Net benefit vs how long you defer
The longer until you sell, the more the deferred tax shrinks in present value - the dot marks your horizon.
Tax-loss harvesting is mostly tax deferral, not free money. Selling at a loss and rebuying a similar (not substantially identical - beware the 30-day wash-sale rule) asset lowers your basis, so you'll owe tax on a larger gain later. The real value is (1) the time value of investing the up-front saving, and (2) rate arbitrage - offsetting ordinary income at a high rate now versus paying the lower cap-gains rate later. This is an estimate; it ignores AMT, net investment income tax, the long-term/short-term distinction within gains, and assumes the replacement recovers. Not tax advice.
Lump Sum vs Dollar-Cost Averaging
Got a windfall - a bonus, an inheritance, a 401(k) rollover? Conventional wisdom says ease in slowly. But because markets rise more often than they fall, investing it all at once has historically beaten spreading it out most of the time. Here's the backtest across every starting point since 1928.
Lump sum won
0%
Avg lump advantage
0%
DCA won
0%
DCA's best win
-
$
S&P 500 (total return), each tranche at the start of the year
Lump sum vs DCA, by starting year
Lump sum ended ahead DCA ended ahead - each bar is how much lump sum beat (or trailed) DCA for that start year.
Backtest uses annual S&P 500 total returns (Damodaran/NYU), 1928–2025. "Lump sum" invests the whole amount at the start of year one; "DCA" invests an equal slice at the start of each year over the spread, with uninvested cash assumed to earn nothing. Both are valued at the end of the spread. Because stocks rise in about two-thirds of years, lump sum usually wins - dollar-cost averaging mainly helps when you'd have bought right before a crash, and its real value is behavioral (it's easier to stomach). The classic Vanguard study finds lump sum wins ~68% of rolling 12-month periods; spreading over more years widens the lump-sum edge.
Dividend Income
Turn your portfolio into a paycheck schedule: enter your dividend stocks and ETFs with the dollar amount you hold, and see how much lands each month, your blended yield, and how dividend growth + reinvestment compounds that income over the next 20 years.
Your holdings
Monthly income calendar
Income growth projection
Factor Regression
Academics found that a handful of "factors" explain most of what any stock or fund does: the market itself, size (small vs big), value (cheap vs expensive), profitability, investment style, and momentum. This tool regresses any US ticker's monthly returns on those factors (Ken French's data, the academic standard) and tells you in plain English what your investment REALLY is - and whether it has any skill (alpha) left after the factors are stripped out.
Factor loadings
Portfolio X-Ray
You might own 4 "different" funds that are all secretly the same Big Tech bet. Enter your ETFs and stocks with weights and this looks inside the funds: your true sector mix, your real stock/bond/cash split, the hidden overlap between funds, and the blended fee you're actually paying.
Your portfolio
True sector exposure
Biggest underlying positions
Asset mix & fees
Market Heatmap
The US stock market at a glance: every tile is one of the largest US-listed companies, sized by market cap and colored by today's move. Green is up, red is down, and the big tiles are the ones that move your index funds. Click any tile for its full price chart.
US large caps · today
Tile size = market cap · color = % change vs previous close (refreshes hourly) · universe = the ~160 largest US stocks, grouped by sector. Data: Yahoo Finance.
Yield Curve History
The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Watch it twist from the towering double-digit rates of the Volcker era through every inversion - when short rates rise above long rates, a signal that has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.
Showing
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2s10s spread
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10y–3m spread
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Shape
-
Drag to scrub · 1976 → today
The curve on this date
2s10s spread through history
Below zero (shaded red) = inverted. The marker tracks the date shown at left.
Monthly constant-maturity US Treasury yields from FRED (TB3MS, GS1, GS2, GS5, GS10, GS30), 1976–present. The 30-year series has a gap from 2002–2006 when the bond was discontinued. An inverted curve (2s10s or 10y–3m below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–18 months, though timing varies. Yields are nominal.
Foreign Exchange
Live currency conversion, historical charts for major pairs, and cross rates.
ConverterLive rates
Result
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Fetching rates...
USD/EUR1 year
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Dollar index (DXY)FRED
Spot
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5Y change
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Basket composition
Currency
Weight
EUR · Euro
57.6%
JPY · Japanese yen
13.6%
GBP · British pound
11.9%
CAD · Canadian dollar
9.1%
SEK · Swedish krona
4.2%
CHF · Swiss franc
3.6%
A weaker dollar tends to lift gold, EM equities, commodities, and US large-cap earnings from foreign sales. A stronger dollar does the opposite.
EUR / USDFRED
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US dollars per 1 euro (updated daily)
USD / JPYFRED
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Japanese yen per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
GBP / USDFRED
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US dollars per 1 British pound (updated daily)
USD / CNYFRED
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Chinese yuan per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
Top 10 weekly appreciating vs USDWeekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
Currency
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
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Top 10 weekly depreciating vs USDWeekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
Currency
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
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Cross rates vs USD
Currency
Rate (per 1 USD)
Inverse (USD per 1)
Stock Screener
Filter the largest US stocks by valuation, profitability, growth, dividend, leverage, and risk. Click any column header to sort.
Filters
Style presets
Famous investors
Results
Top Stocks
Compare the top 25 US stocks (by total return since inception, across major sectors) on risk and return metrics.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
ETF Analyzer
Type any ETF ticker for a full breakdown in one screen - what it holds, who runs it, how it has performed, its fees versus category peers, leverage, and a plain-English read on how risky it is. Live from Yahoo Finance.
Enter an ETF ticker above, or tap one of the popular picks, to analyze it.
Live from Yahoo Finance (price history, fund profile, holdings). Returns, volatility, max drawdown, Sharpe and growth of $10,000 are computed from monthly history; some fields (expense ratio, holdings, issuer) only show when the feed provides them, with a curated fallback for popular funds. Fees-vs-peers compares the expense ratio to a representative category average. The risk read is an indicative, rules-based summary - not advice. Verify before investing.
Technical Monitor
A live technical scan of the 100 largest US-listed stocks and ETFs. Each ticker is scored on 12 classic signals - six moving-average trend checks and six oscillators (RSI, MACD, stochastic, CCI, Williams %R, momentum) - computed from a year of daily prices. Tickers with a strong consensus float into the buy and sell lists; click any ticker for its full breakdown. These are price-action signals, not investment advice.
Strong buy signals
Strong sell signals
Full monitorclick a column header to sort · click a row for the breakdown
Universe: the 100 largest US-listed stocks and ETFs by market cap / fund assets (list pinned July 2026, refreshed periodically). Prices live from Yahoo Finance - one year of daily bars per ticker. Signals: price vs SMA 10/20/50/100/200, the 50/200-day cross, RSI(14), stochastic %K(14,3), CCI(20), Williams %R(14), MACD(12,26,9) vs its signal line, and 10-day rate of change. Oscillators need threshold AND direction to fire - oversold and turning up is a buy, overbought and turning down is a sell; overbought alone in a steady uptrend stays neutral. The composite rating averages buy(+1)/neutral(0)/sell(-1) across all 12: Strong buy at +0.5 and above, Strong sell at -0.5 and below (TradingView-style bands). Technical signals describe recent price action only - they say nothing about valuation or fundamentals and are not investment advice.
Stock Analyzer
Type any US stock ticker for a full equity research report: DCF, comps, ratio analysis, management, risks, and a conviction price target. Stocks only - not for ETFs, mutual funds, or closed-end funds (use the Portfolio Backtester for those).
Compare the top 25 fixed-income products (by total return since inception, within each category) on yields, risk metrics, and tax efficiency across treasuries, munis, corporates, REITs, and dividend equities.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universeLive
Yields refreshed live. Risk metrics from Morningstar/PortfoliosLab.
Top REITs
Compare the top 25 REITs and REIT ETFs (by total return since inception) on risk and return.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Top ETFs
Compare the top ETFs across 10 categories - ranked by long-run CAGR (net of fees), with filters for size, age, and expense ratio.
FactorLoading…
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
No ETFs match this sub-category.
Academic Study Analyzer
The research that shaped how markets are understood - each landmark study explained in plain English: what it found, how strong the evidence is, why it matters, and the catch. Search the library below and open any study for the full breakdown.
Analyze your own paperOptional AI add-on
Paste an abstract (or upload a PDF/TXT) and get the same plain-English breakdown - significance, statistical strength, and real-world impact - written by AI.
Study library-
Plain-English summaries are editorial interpretations written for learning - not a substitute for the original papers. Follow each link to read the source. Citation counts are approximate (Google Scholar) and influence levels are editorial.
Alpha Room
My personal, timestamped calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. Each idea comes with a trade, a time horizon, and a return tracked live from the day I call it.
Free previewMembership coming soonRead more ▾
Every tool on this site is free, forever. They let you do your own research and reach your own conclusions, and that will never change. The Alpha Room is different. It’s my personal, specific calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. It’s free for now, but it will move behind a yearly membership soon. Every call below is timestamped, carries a trade and a time horizon, and is tracked in an honest rolling scorecard, so you can see exactly how each idea has done since I called it.
House view-
Current CallsWhat I’d own
The names I’d actually buy right now - core conviction holds plus a few tactical momentum rides. Each return is tracked live from the day I called it.
Track record-
Current TipsCash & defense
What to do with the money you’re not putting to work, and how to protect the downside if you’d rather play defense.
Rolling history of callsPermanent ledger · newest first
Every call ever made, open or closed, with how it’s done since the timestamp. This is an append-only record - calls are never edited or removed, and the misses stay too.
Not investment advice. The Alpha Room is one person’s opinion, shared for education and discussion. Returns are tracked from public market data (price return since the call date, before dividends), not actual fills, and past calls do not predict future results. Do your own research; positions and prices change. Nothing here is advice personalized to you.
Great Investors
The 28 most influential investors in history - what each believed and what they’d likely do in today’s market. Each card links to the closest backtestable portfolio in the Killer Portfolios library.
The legends
Sort
28 investors
Each card: the core philosophy, what they’d likely be doing right now, and a link to the closest matching portfolio.
What active managers are doing nowSnapshot
The publicly-known posture and most-recent notable moves of today’s biggest active investors - curated from their filings, shareholder letters and interviews. A snapshot for context, not live 13F data, and it changes.
Asset Correlations Updated yearly
Normal-period averages (~2010–2025) vs crash periods (GFC, COVID, 2022 bear). Plus longest-term matrix using maximum overlapping data - and a live builder: pick any stocks, ETFs or asset classes and any window, and see how they move together.
Build your own correlation matrixLive
Add 2-8 tickers (any stock, ETF or crypto - plus US housing from the Case-Shiller index), pick the return interval and lookback, and the matrix computes from live price history.
Pearson correlation of overlapping periodic returns (adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance; "US housing" uses the monthly Case-Shiller national index from FRED, so adding it forces monthly returns). Short windows and few observations make correlations noisy - the observation count is shown so you can judge. Daily data reaches back ~10 years; weekly and monthly go back decades.
Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrix
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs30–49 yrs10–29 yrs<10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Database sources+ expand
The AI Race
Country and company scorecards on the eight metrics that define the AI race: compute, models, training flops, investment, chips, patents, talent, and data-center power.
Country scorecard - share of globalStanford HAI · WIPO · Synergy
Each country's share of the global total on six measurable AI-race metrics. Darker bar = bigger share.
Country
Private $
Models
Talent
Patents
DC capacity
DC power
Data-center power capacitySynergy '24
Top countries by total data-center capacity (GW). Compute = power; these are the physical plants where AI gets built.
Data-center electricity useIEA '24
Annual TWh consumed by data centers. 2026 projections shown as lighter bars.
Private AI investment (cumulative 2013–2024)Stanford HAI '25
Notable AI models released (2025)Stanford HAI '26
Top AI labs by training computeEpoch AI '26
Flagship-model training compute, log scale. Bigger = more compute thrown at the largest public model.
Lab
Country
Flagship model
Training FLOPs
Log10(FLOPs)
Notable AI models released per year, globalEpoch AI '25
Top-tier AI talent concentrationMacroPolo '23
AI patent share (WIPO 2024)WIPO '24
Data sources+ expand
Metric
Series
Provider
Private $
Cumulative private AI investment (2013–2024)
Stanford HAI - AI Index Report 2025
Models
Notable Models database (model counts + training compute)
Epoch AI
DC power
National electricity consumption by data centers (2024 estimate)
IEA - Electricity 2024 (Data Centres chapter)
DC capacity
Hyperscale data-center capacity (quarterly)
Synergy Research Group
Patents
Global AI patent filings by country (2024)
WIPO
Talent
Top-tier researcher distribution (Global AI Talent Tracker, 2023)
MacroPolo
Training FLOPs
Frontier-model training compute (Epoch credible estimates)
Epoch AI
Caveats: compute and chip figures are estimates - labs and chipmakers rarely disclose exact numbers. All values are static snapshots, not live. Last refreshed July 2026 (Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2026, Epoch AI mid-2026, IEA); the site's quarterly data routine re-checks it, with the next full refresh due with the AI Index Report 2027 (~April 2027).
Killer Portfolios
A library of famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. All data is approximate and based on historical returns - past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Portfolios
0
Highest CAGR
-
Best Sharpe
-
Shallowest DD
-
Comparison table
Portfolio
CAGR
Max drawdown
Sharpe
Best year
Worst year
Stocks %
Card stats are full-history reference values (US data, 1972–2025, annual rebalancing) sourced from Portfolio Charts / Portfolio Visualizer, refreshed annually; click any card to recompute live from its ETFs over their actual overlap. Sharpe ratios assume Rf ≈ 3-month T-bill (~4% long-run avg); ±0.05 vs source is normal due to differing Rf and rebalance assumptions. Excludes taxes and transaction costs.
Articles
Original research and analysis by Luis Nunez. Also available on Substack for email delivery.
Gold as a Crisis Asset
War, inflation, Fed cycles - since 1971.
Article12 min
Full interactive articleWartime data, inflation onset, Fed cycles, CAGR, charts
Asset Class Returns by Decade Updated yearly
Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.
negativestrong positive
Total returns heatmap
Decade
Stocks
Cash
Gov Bonds
Corp Bonds
Housing
REITs
Gold
Inflation
Data sources+ expand
Asset
Series
Provider
Stocks
S&P 500 total return (incl. dividends)
NYU Stern / Damodaran
Cash
3-Month US Treasury Bills
NYU Stern / FRED
Gov Bonds
10-Year US Treasury total return
NYU Stern / Damodaran
Corp Bonds
Moody's BAA Corporate Bond total return
Damodaran / Barclays
Housing
Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (price only)
Robert Shiller / FRED
REITs
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs total return (since 1972)
NAREIT
Gold
Year-end spot price per troy oz
Kitco / World Gold Council
Inflation
CPI-U annual average
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Annualized geometric means for the full decade (Jan 1 of start year to Dec 31 of end year). 2020s covers 2020–2024. Real estate reflects home-price appreciation only - total return including rental income would be higher. "N/A" indicates data not available for that period.
Finance Dictionary
Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Click any cross-referenced term inside a definition to jump straight to it.
No terms match your search.
Return Drivers
The S&P 500 moved this year - but why? Any stock-market gain can only come from a few places: companies earning more, investors paying more per $1 of earnings (the P/E multiple), buybacks shrinking the share count, and currency effects on overseas profits. This page splits the index's move into those pieces so you can see what's really doing the work.
The rally is mostly multiple expansion + Mag-7 earnings, with a drag from a stronger dollar. The five slices below add up to the index’s YTD price return - tap any one to see how it’s calculated.
The six forces in play
Mag-7 contribution to SPX returnYTD
Decomposition is approximate, hand-curated quarterly from public sources. Updated Jul 2026 - FactSet Earnings Insight (Jul 2, 2026), S&P Dow Jones Indices buyback data, Yahoo Finance closes through Jun 30, 2026. Not a real-time feed.
Capital Flows
Where the money is moving - US-listed ETF flows by asset class, region and sector, plus income, thematic and alt channels. Compiled from monthly fund-flow reports (State Street / Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Farside). Data as of -.
Total ETF net flows YTD
-
US-listed, all asset classes
Where it’s going
-
largest inflow
Where it’s leaving
-
largest outflow
Fastest mover
-
biggest momentum shift
Asset class flows · YTD net-
US sector flows · YTD-
US vs international · equity flows-
Income, thematic & alt flowsMixed sources
Sources: State Street “US-Listed ETF Flash Flows” (Bloomberg data) for asset-class, sector, regional, thematic and income figures; World Gold Council for global gold ETFs; Farside Investors and press reporting for US spot-crypto ETFs. Figures are hand-refreshed when each monthly report publishes - the as-of date on every card tells you exactly how fresh the numbers are.
Sector rotation - total return by windowLive
All 11 GICS sectors across time windows, color-coded so leadership and laggards jump out. Click a column header to sort; green = outperforming, red = underperforming. Returns are price-based from the SPDR sector ETFs.
Live data from the SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLY, XLP, XLI, XLB, XLU, XLRE, XLC) versus SPY for the S&P 500. Returns are price-only (excluding dividends) over trailing trading-day windows and year-to-date, from one year of daily closes. Sectors beating SPY are gaining leadership; markets data may be delayed, so refresh to re-pull.
Strategy Tracker
Side-by-side performance of the most-discussed long-term portfolio strategies. Same period, same fee assumption, same rebalance cadence - so the numbers are actually comparable.
10Y winner
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highest CAGR
Best Sharpe
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risk-adjusted leader
Smallest drawdown
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most defensive
YTD leader
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current momentum
Strategy scoreboardHover a name for what it is · click any column to sort
Strategy
YTD
1Y
3Y CAGR
5Y CAGR
10Y CAGR
15Y CAGR
20Y CAGR
Vol
Max DD
Sharpe
Calendar-year heatmap10Y · annual
Strategy returns approximated from their underlying ETF baskets (Yahoo prices), monthly rebalancing, net of 0.05% blended fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
// About this site
Arsenal.finance is an open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Everything is meticulously built from scratch.
// Why
To give retail investors institutional-grade tools without the institutional price tag, and help them make substantially smarter financial decisions in the process.
// About me, Luis Nunez
Finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.
// Investment philosophy
Most people should own the market and skip the stock picking, market timing, and price predictions. The data backs this up. Unless you work inside a company, you have no real insight into what's happening there. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good couple of years before ending up roughly where they started. Beating the market over a long horizon is rare enough to qualify as a statistical anomaly.
Rare is not impossible however. And picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms is genuinely fun, part of why we're here in the first place. So I advocate for a hybrid approach: split your portfolio disproportionately in two. A core portfolio that holds the majority of your money and lets you sleep at night, and a betting portfolio that lets you age without the regret of missing the trade you were sure about.
Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous country, it shouldn't be a surprise that I'm more a fan of Smith, Friedman and Hayek than Keynes. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.
I also believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually nothing. That's prosperity at scale.
// Support
I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.
55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. That mix is 80% of my portfolio; the other 20% is my Alpha Room calls. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.