Crash Risk Calculator

Probability of a major US stock-market drawdown (20%+) ahead. Weighted blend of 6 strictly-leading indicators - each one moves BEFORE drawdowns, never with or after them. Three short-lead stress signals (HY credit spread, 10Y−2Y yield curve, NFCI financial conditions) and three long-lead valuation signals (CAPE, EY spread, dividend yield). Hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For US economic-recession risk (GDP / unemployment) see the separate Recession Risk tool.