Composite drawdown probability over time, recomputed each month from the same threshold table the live gauge uses. Spikes above 60% lined up with 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007–08, 2020, 2022 and 2025–26; dips below 25% lined up with 1982 and 2009. Months Shiller's dataset hasn't finalized yet use the latest published monthly CAPE / P/E / dividend-yield readings, so the newest data points match the freshest available values.

A different question from the drawdown gauge above: not "will the market fall?" but "does today look like a bubble?" Inspired by Ray Dalio's six classic bubble questions: are prices high relative to traditional measures, are prices counting on unsustainable growth, are new buyers flooding in, is sentiment broadly bullish, are purchases being financed with leverage, and is corporate investment running at boom levels. Each gauge is scored 0–100 against its own full history and the dial averages the six. Past bubble peaks (1929, 2000, 2021) pushed most gauges into their top deciles; washed-out bottoms (1982, 2009) sat near the floor. Click any gauge for what it measures and how.