US Economic Regime Detector

Growth × inflation framework inspired by Ray Dalio's macro regime model. Classifies the current US environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.

Current regimeLive

Detecting...

Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.

GDP growth -

CPI inflation -

Regime classification & what to hold

The four regimes are the combinations of the growth and inflation backdrop - e.g. "growth+ · inflation−" means growth running above trend while inflation falls. Winners are the assets that have historically outperformed in that regime; losers are the ones that tend to lag.

Goldilocksgrowth+ · inflation−

WinnersEquities, credit, growth stocks

LosersGold, commodities, cash

Reflationgrowth+ · inflation+

WinnersCommodities, value, TIPS, EM

LosersLong-duration bonds

Deflationgrowth− · inflation−

WinnersTreasuries, cash, quality bonds

LosersEquities, commodities, credit

Stagflationgrowth− · inflation+

WinnersGold, TIPS, commodities, cash

LosersEquities, long bonds, credit

+ scoring methodology

Regime history (1970–present)FRED

Goldilocks Reflation Deflation Stagflation

Regime rotation backtestLive

Regime rotation - applies the live detector. Rebalances quarterly using last quarter's regime call, mirroring what an investor could have actually done in real time.

Perfect foresight - cheats. Rebalances using next quarter's regime call as if you already knew it (impossible in practice - shown as the theoretical ceiling the detector could reach).

S&P 500 buy & hold - the passive benchmark. 100% S&P 500 through the full period, no decisions.

Asset mix per regime

Goldilocks

STOCKS 50%

BONDS 50%

Reflation

STOCKS 50%

COMMOD 50%

Deflation

BONDS 50%

CASH 50%

Stagflation

COMMOD 50%

CASH 50%

Growth vs inflation signalsFRED

Recession Dodge Strategy Alternative

An alternative detector that turns one forward-looking signal, the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), into a simple binary call: stay fully invested when financial conditions are loose, step aside to cash when they tighten. Conditions are loose about 71% of the time, so the strategy is usually invested and its whole edge comes from sitting out the few real credit-stress windows (2008, briefly 2020 and 2022) that tend to lead major drawdowns by a few weeks. Risk-on / risk-off, no four-quadrant rotation.

In the market

- OR -

Hold cash

Current Recession Dodge call

Detecting…

Reading the latest NFCI to decide: stay invested or hold cash.

+ scoring methodology

Series: NFCI · S&P 500 total return · 3-month T-bill (cash). Backtest window starts when NFCI begins (≈ 1971). Binary risk-on / risk-off: 100% S&P when NFCI ≤ 0, 100% cash when NFCI > 0, rebalanced quarterly on the prior quarter's reading.