Soft data
MacroDefinition
Survey-based economic indicators: PMI, consumer sentiment, NFIB small business optimism, regional Fed surveys. Captures expectations and sentiment rather than realized activity.
Leads "hard data" by 1-3 months but is noisy. Soft data routinely diverges from hard data (e.g., 2022-2024 sentiment was historically depressed while hard data showed growth) — tells you about psychology more than reality.
Leads "hard data" by 1-3 months but is noisy. Soft data routinely diverges from hard data (e.g., 2022-2024 sentiment was historically depressed while hard data showed growth) — tells you about psychology more than reality.