ARSENAL > Soft data

Soft data

Macro
Definition
Survey-based economic indicators: PMI, consumer sentiment, NFIB small business optimism, regional Fed surveys. Captures expectations and sentiment rather than realized activity.

Leads "hard data" by 1-3 months but is noisy. Soft data routinely diverges from hard data (e.g., 2022-2024 sentiment was historically depressed while hard data showed growth) — tells you about psychology more than reality.
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