Initial jobless claims
MacroDefinition
Weekly release from the Department of Labor. Number of new unemployment-insurance filings. Most timely US labor-market indicator (released every Thursday for the prior week).
Below 200K = healthy labor market. Above 300K = early warning. Above 400K = recessionary territory. Continuing claims (those on UI for multiple weeks) is a slower but cleaner gauge of underlying labor conditions.
Below 200K = healthy labor market. Above 300K = early warning. Above 400K = recessionary territory. Continuing claims (those on UI for multiple weeks) is a slower but cleaner gauge of underlying labor conditions.
Related tool
Open the recession tool on Arsenal.finance →