Yield Curve History

The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Watch it twist from the towering double-digit rates of the Volcker era through every inversion - when short rates rise above long rates, a signal that has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.

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2s10s spread

10y–3m spread

Shape

Drag to scrub · 1976 → today

The curve on this date

2s10s spread through history

Below zero (shaded red) = inverted. The marker tracks the date shown at left.

Monthly constant-maturity US Treasury yields from FRED (TB3MS, GS1, GS2, GS5, GS10, GS30), 1976–present. The 30-year series has a gap from 2002–2006 when the bond was discontinued. An inverted curve (2s10s or 10y–3m below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–18 months, though timing varies. Yields are nominal.