Yield Curve Chart and Inversion History
The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Every inversion is visible. Short above long has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.
About this page
This yield curve chart plots US Treasury yields from 3 months out to 30 years, and it moves: press play to run from 1976 to today, or drag the scrubber to any month you want to look at. The last frame is built from the most recent daily close, so the shape at the end of the run is the curve as it stands now.
Two spreads sit above the chart, the 10-year yield minus the 2-year and the 10-year minus the 3-month. Both are quoted in basis points and turn red when they go negative, which is what people mean by an inverted curve. The Shape tile reads the same two numbers and calls the curve normal, flat or inverted.
Inversion is worth watching because it has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, usually by several quarters, though the lag has varied widely and the downturn has often begun only after the curve turned positive again. The second chart tracks the 10-year minus 2-year spread across the whole period, shaded red below zero, so every past inversion is visible in one place.
What does the US Treasury yield curve look like today?
The last frame of the animation is built from the daily constant-maturity Treasury yields published by FRED, so the tiles above the chart read the most recent close rather than a month average. The Showing tile names the date you are looking at, and the Shape tile calls the curve normal, flat or inverted.
What is an inverted yield curve?
A curve where short-term Treasury yields sit above long-term ones, so the line slopes down instead of up. On this page the spread tiles turn red and the spread-history chart shades red below zero whenever that happens. It usually means the market expects the Fed to cut rates, which is rarely a vote of confidence in growth.
What is the 10-year minus 2-year spread?
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, quoted in basis points. It is the most watched measure of the curve's slope: positive means long rates pay more than short ones, negative means the curve is inverted. The chart on the right plots it for the full period covered here.
Why does the 10-year minus 3-month spread matter as well?
The 3-month bill tracks the current policy rate closely, so the 10-year minus 3-month spread is the version Federal Reserve research has leaned on most as a recession signal. The two spreads usually tell the same story, and when they disagree it is worth knowing which end of the curve moved.
How far back does this yield curve history go?
To 1976, which covers the Volcker years of double-digit rates, every inversion since, and the recessions that followed each one. Press play to run through the whole period at speed, or drag the scrubber to a single month.
Does an inverted yield curve mean a recession is coming?
Inversion has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, but the lag has run from roughly half a year to two years, and the recession has often started only once the curve had turned positive again. Treat it as one warning among several rather than a timing tool.