NAIRU
MacroDefinition
Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. The unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation. Below NAIRU = wage pressure builds → inflation rises. Above NAIRU = labor slack → disinflation.
Typically estimated 4.0-4.5% for modern US. Has likely been falling thanks to immigration and remote-work-driven slack. Can't be observed directly — only inferred from inflation outcomes.
Typically estimated 4.0-4.5% for modern US. Has likely been falling thanks to immigration and remote-work-driven slack. Can't be observed directly — only inferred from inflation outcomes.