Leading economic indicators
MacroDefinition
Composite of 10 forward-looking series — yield curve, building permits, consumer expectations, PMI new orders, jobless claims, money supply, leading credit, S&P 500, etc. Conference Board publishes the LEI monthly.
LEI declines for 6+ months have preceded every US recession since 1970. The 2022-2023 LEI fall was the longest sustained decline outside a recession in the series' history (now arguably late, suggesting the recession either was averted or is yet to come).
LEI declines for 6+ months have preceded every US recession since 1970. The 2022-2023 LEI fall was the longest sustained decline outside a recession in the series' history (now arguably late, suggesting the recession either was averted or is yet to come).
Related tool
Open the recession tool on Arsenal.finance →