Sentiment indicators
MacroDefinition
Surveys of consumer or business expectations. Well-known: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, ISM PMI (manufacturing + services), AAII bull-bear, NFIB Small Business Optimism.
Sentiment leads economic data by 1-3 months but is noisy. Extreme readings (sub-50 PMI, sub-60 Michigan) tend to mean-revert. Useful as cross-checks against hard data, not as standalone signals.
Sentiment leads economic data by 1-3 months but is noisy. Extreme readings (sub-50 PMI, sub-60 Michigan) tend to mean-revert. Useful as cross-checks against hard data, not as standalone signals.