Arsenal.finance: Free Financial Tools & Live Market Data
Markets
SPXS&P 500
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NDXNasdaq 100
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10YTreasuries
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XAUGold
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WTIOil
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BTCBitcoin
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5Y BEIInflation expect.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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US Economy Score
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Reads growth, jobs and inflation together to answer: is the economy doing well?
US Econ snapshot
GDP growth
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CPI inflation · YoY
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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Fed posture
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Money supply
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Market news
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Daily Brief
Estimated release dates are marked. Model scores and momentum rankings are research signals. Delayed observations and unavailable feeds are never counted as unchanged.
My Arsenal
Create your own arsenal and monitor what you care about
How your widgets changed while you were away.
Compared with observations saved at your previous visit
Start with what matters to you
Choose a category above and add your first widget. Category dividers appear as you build your Arsenal.
Saved data & privacy
Widgets, chart preferences, visit timestamps and comparison snapshots stay in this browser. Privacy · Data policy
Stock Market Dashboard
Real-time equity index prices and annualized returns across major regions. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.
Global equities indexes
| Index | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | ||
| United States | ||||||||||
| SPX S&P 500 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NDX Nasdaq 100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DJI Dow Jones Industrial | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RUT Russell 2000 (small cap) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Global | ||||||||||
| ACWI MSCI All-Country | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| VT Vanguard Total World | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Europe | ||||||||||
| VGK FTSE Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UKX UK · EWU equity ETF (MSCI UK) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DAX Germany · EWG equity ETF (MSCI Germany) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAC France · EWQ equity ETF (MSCI France) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Asia / Pacific | ||||||||||
| EWJ Japan · EWJ equity ETF (MSCI Japan) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MCHI China MSCI | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWY South Korea KOSPI | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWH Hong Kong Hang Seng | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWA Australia ASX 200 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Emerging Markets | ||||||||||
| EEM MSCI Emerging Markets | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| INDA India · INDA equity ETF (MSCI India) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWZ Brazil Bovespa | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWT Taiwan TAIEX | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bonds
US Treasury benchmark, investment-grade and high-yield corporate spreads, emerging-market debt, and 13 sovereign 10Y yields with real-yield adjustments.
Bond market yields
ICE BofA indices, effective yield.
| Class | Yield | Spread vs 10Y |
|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y US Treasury benchmark | - | - |
| TIPS 10Y real yield (inflation-adj) | - | real |
| AAA AAA corporate | - | - |
| AA AA corporate | - | - |
| A A corporate | - | - |
| BBB BBB corporate | - | - |
| BB BB high yield | - | - |
| B B high yield | - | - |
| CCC CCC & below (junk) | - | - |
| EM Emerging markets | - | - |
Sovereign 10Y yields
OECD long-term government bond rates.
| Country | 10Y yield | Avg CPI (10Y) | Real yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 US United States | - | - | - |
| 🇩🇪 DE Germany | - | - | - |
| 🇬🇧 GB United Kingdom | - | - | - |
| 🇯🇵 JP Japan | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇦 CA Canada | - | - | - |
| 🇫🇷 FR France | - | - | - |
| 🇮🇹 IT Italy | - | - | - |
| 🇦🇺 AU Australia | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇭 CH Switzerland | - | - | - |
| 🇪🇸 ES Spain | - | - | - |
| 🇰🇷 KR South Korea | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇳 CN China | - | - | - |
| 🇮🇳 IN India | - | - | - |
ETF & Stock Compare
Put any few ETFs or stocks side by side: fees, returns, risk and yield, all in one view. Pick 2 to 4 to compare.
Build comparison0 of 4 columns
Start typing, then pick from the list. Searches the entire universe of listed ETFs & stocks by ticker or name. Curated names load instantly; any other ticker pulls its live data when you add it.
Side-by-side comparison
Growth of $10,000 over the past 10 years, dividends reinvested
What this shows. How $10,000 would have grown over the past ~10 years in each fund, based on its historical returns and rescaled so every fund starts at $10,000. It is backward-looking: a record of what already happened, not a forecast of future returns and not a forward projection. The dips are real drawdowns along the way; the Max drawdown row above is the single deepest peak-to-trough fall over the period (e.g. −33% means the balance fell to about $6,700 from its prior high before recovering). Dividends reinvested, before tax; representative for the built-in names and computed from actual history for any ticker you add.
Every instrument is computed live from its actual dividend-adjusted price history: price, trailing and since-inception returns, max drawdown, beta, Sharpe, a growth-of-$10k path, and dividend yield from the real distributions paid over the last 12 months. All returns are total returns (dividends and distributions reinvested), which is why a fund that pays large cash distributions (a managed-futures ETF, say) can far outrun its own price chart. Fund-only fields such as expense ratio show for ETFs. "Best" highlights the most favourable value in each row across the selected instruments (lowest fee; highest return, yield or Sharpe; smallest drawdown). Growth of $10,000 is a hypothetical illustration, before tax, and not a live execution quote, so verify numbers with your broker before trading.
Returns use the same dividend-adjusted weekly series and trailing-window calculation as ETF Analyzer. Quotes can update during the session; returns end at the latest available historical observation. Backtester uses monthly observations; partial-month endpoints can differ.
Returns use the same dividend-adjusted weekly series and trailing-window calculation as ETF Analyzer. Quotes can update during the session; returns end at the latest available historical observation. Backtester uses monthly observations; partial-month endpoints can differ.
Crypto
Live prices for the 30 largest digital assets by market capitalization, stablecoins excluded. Annualized returns computed from the earliest available price.
Top 30 by market cap
| Ticker | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | Market cap | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | |||
| BTC Bitcoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ETH Ethereum | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SOL Solana | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XRP XRP (Ripple) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BNB BNB (Binance) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ADA Cardano | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DOGE Dogecoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AVAX Avalanche | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TRX TRON | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LINK Chainlink | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ZEC Zcash | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HYPE Hyperliquid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XMR Monero | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LEO UNUS SED LEO | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XLM Stellar | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UNI Uniswap | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BCH Bitcoin Cash | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NEAR NEAR Protocol | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LTC Litecoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HBAR Hedera | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SUI Sui | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SHIB Shiba Inu | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CRO Cronos | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TAO Bittensor | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OKB OKB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AAVE Aave | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MNT Mantle | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ONDO Ondo | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DOT Polkadot | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ETC Ethereum Classic | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Commodities
Live prices for 21 of the most-traded commodities across metals, energy and agriculture. Annualized returns over 1Y, 5Y, 10Y and max available history.
Top commodities
| Ticker | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | Market cap | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | |||
| Metals | |||||||||||
| XAU Gold (GLD) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XAG Silver (SLV) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PLAT Platinum · PPLT bullion ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PALL Palladium · PALL bullion ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COPPER Copper · CPER futures fund, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ALUM Aluminum futures · USD/metric tonne | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Energy | |||||||||||
| WTI WTI crude oil (USO) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BRENT Brent crude oil (BNO) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NATGAS Natural gas · UNG futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GASOL Gasoline · UGA futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HEATOIL Heating oil futures · USD/gallon | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| URAN Uranium · URA miners/nuclear equity ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Agriculture | |||||||||||
| CORN Corn · CORN futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WHEAT Wheat · WEAT futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SOY Soybeans · SOYB futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COFFEE Coffee futures · US cents/lb | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SUGAR Sugar · CANE futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COCOA Cocoa futures · USD/metric tonne | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COTTON Cotton futures · US cents/lb | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CATTLE Cattle futures · US cents/lb | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AGRI Agriculture · DBA futures ETF, USD/share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
ETF quotes are USD per share, not spot commodity prices. Futures funds can diverge from spot because of contract rolls and expenses; URA owns equities. Return columns and chart actions use the named proxy, which can differ from the spot/futures quote.
US Economy
Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit. Live from FRED.
Macro health heatmap
GDP
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CPI
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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Rates & Fed policy
US Treasuries yield curve
FOMC dot plot
Rate expectations
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Implied rates from CME 30-day Fed Funds futures, priced continuously by the market. Odds compare each meeting’s implied step against a standard 0.25pp move.
Interest rates
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
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Policy & money-market rates
Fed funds target range -
Effective fed funds (EFFR) -
Interest on reserves (IORB) -
Overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) -
SOFR -
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Fed funds rate
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Monthly average, latest point is the current target midpoint.
10-year Treasury yield
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Monthly constant-maturity yield.
30-year mortgage rate
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Weekly survey average, plotted monthly.
Prime rate
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What banks charge their best borrowers; credit cards and home-equity lines are priced off it.
Growth & output
US GDP
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Nominal GDP, current dollars, annualized (updated quarterly).
GDP growth
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Real GDP, QoQ annualized rate.
Trade balance
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Net exports of goods and services, in $ billions (updated quarterly).
US population
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Total US resident population, in millions (updated monthly).
Inflation
Inflation
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CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%.
Core CPI -
Everyday inflation: the prices you actually pay
Groceries, gasoline, electricity and rent, each year-over-year, versus headline CPI (the gray line). When the colored lines run above the gray one, real life is inflating faster than the official average.
Jobs & wages
Labor market: supply, demand & price
Unemployment rate
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% of labor force without a job.
Job openings rate
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Open jobs as % of total employment.
Hires rate
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Monthly hires as % of employment.
Real wage growth
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Median weekly real earnings, year-over-year growth (updated quarterly).
Median household income
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Real median household income, annual (inflation-adjusted dollars).
Household credit
Loan delinquency rates
Share of balances 30+ days past due at all US commercial banks, by loan type (updated quarterly). Rising delinquencies are an early sign of household stress. Heads up: this is the all-banks 30+ day rate (cards run ~3%). The 7-8% figures in the headlines are a different cut: smaller banks outside the top 100, or the NY Fed's 90+ day "serious delinquency" transition.
Credit cards
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Mortgages
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All loans & leases
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Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days)
Annualized share of balances newly rolling into 90+ days past due, by loan type, quarterly since 2003.
Share of household debt in any stage of delinquency
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Money & liquidity
Money supply & liquidity
Monetary base (M0)
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Currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed, in $ billions (updated monthly).
Monetary base (M0) growth
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M0 year-over-year growth (updated monthly).
Money supply (M2)
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Total M2 money stock, in $ trillions (updated monthly).
Money supply (M2) growth
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M2 year-over-year growth (updated monthly).
Fed balance sheet
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Total Fed assets, in $ trillions (updated weekly).
Government & the budget
Government finances
Government spending growth
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Federal spending year-over-year growth, in % (updated quarterly).
Debt / GDP
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Federal debt as % of GDP (updated quarterly).
Federal deficit
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Surplus (+) or deficit (−) over the last 12 months, in $ billions (updated monthly).
Personal savings rate
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Personal saving as % of disposable income (updated monthly).
Federal spending by category
Sources: live indicators from FRED. Serious-delinquency and household-debt delinquency charts: NY Fed Household Debt & Credit report, 2026 Q1, released May 2026 (Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax), updated with each quarterly report. The student-loan figure is a four-quarter moving sum, and "delinquent" = 100% minus the share of balances current; the 30+ day delinquency charts are live from FRED. Federal spending by category: live from the US Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), figures rounded to the nearest billion; FYTD = fiscal-year-to-date, and the US fiscal year runs Oct 1 to Sep 30.
Global Economy
GDP share by country and global economic indicators.
World GDP
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Global GDP, in $ trillions. Historical actuals: World Bank via FRED (~12-month lag). Current year + forecasts: IMF World Economic Outlook (tagged "IMF est.").
Global liquidity monitor
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Combined central-bank balance sheets (Fed + ECB + BoJ), in $ trillions.
Energy dashboard: nuclear, solar, wind, petroleumIEA / EIA 2024
Global primary energy by category
Energy consumption by country
Living standards across countries
Purchasing power per person (PPP)IMF WEO Oct 2025
Labor productivity ($ per hour worked)OECD 2024
Quality of life & development (UN Human Development Index)UNDP HDR 2025 (2023 data)
Sources: GDP and liquidity data live from FRED and the IMF World Economic Outlook. Energy dashboard: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024, EIA International Energy Statistics, and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 (figures rounded; updated annually). Living standards: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2025 (GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, 2025, international dollars); OECD Productivity Statistics, 2024 (GDP per hour worked, PPP); UNDP Human Development Report 2025 (HDI for 2023). Figures rounded, refreshed annually.
US Real Estate Tracker
Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.
Case-Shiller
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Median price
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30Y rate
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Starts
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Permits
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Supply
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Home price index
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Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted). S&P computes it from closed repeat sales and publishes on a ~2-month lag, so the newest point here is the newest print that exists.
30Y mortgage rate
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Weekly average, 30-year fixed.
Median sale price
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Median sales price of houses sold in the US: closed transactions, quarterly since 1963.
Median listing price
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Median listing (asking) price of active US listings, monthly since 2016: the earliest read on where sellers think prices are heading.
Mortgage applications
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Weekly purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association survey.
Residential investment
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Real estate investment in new homes and renovations as a share of GDP, quarterly since 1947.
Housing starts & permits
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Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Permits (gold) lead starts (blue) by 1-2 months. When gold turns down before blue, construction is rolling over.
Months of supply
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How long inventory would last at current sales pace.
Seller's mkt <4 mo Balanced 4-6 mo Buyer's mkt >6 mo
Median days on market
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Median days a listing sits before going under contract. Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H1 2026 (published Aug 2026).
| Sector | Cap rate | 10Y Avg | Spread vs 10Y Tsy |
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| All All property | - | - | - |
| Indus Industrial | - | - | - |
| Multi Multifamily | - | - | - |
| Office Office | - | - | - |
| Retail Retail | - | - | - |
| Hotel Hospitality | - | - | - |
Free Portfolio Backtester
Backtest any mix of stocks or ETFs against the S&P 500. Dividends, rebalancing and recurring cashflows included. Every run adds yearly returns, worst drawdowns and an efficient frontier for your own mix.
Inputs
Portfolio builder
ON
Allocation
Results
Growth of $10,000
PortfolioS&P 500
Drawdown
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performance
Annual returns
PortfolioS&P 500
Rolling 3-year return
PortfolioS&P 500
Worst drawdowns
Efficient frontier & optimizer
Run a backtest with 2+ holdings first, then click Build frontier: 6,000 random weight combinations of your assets are tested over the same window. Every gray dot is one portfolio. Hover any dot or marker to see its exact mix, CAGR and volatility. Suggested allocations (max Sharpe, minimum volatility, risk parity, equal weight) appear below. One click applies them to the builder.
ETF and stock backtests use Yahoo monthly adjusted closes when dividend reinvestment is enabled, otherwise closing prices. Monthly bars and partial current months may differ from weekly research charts. SPY is the actual ETF; SPX simulation data is a distinct series.
Market Regime Indicator
Growth × inflation framework inspired by Ray Dalio's macro regime model. Classifies the current US environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.
Current regime
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
Regime classification & what to hold
The four regimes are the combinations of the growth and inflation backdrop, e.g. "GDP ≥2% · CPI <2.5%" means GDP growth of at least 2% and CPI inflation below 2.5%; it does not measure whether either is rising or falling. Winners are the assets that have historically outperformed in that regime; losers are the ones that tend to lag.
GoldilocksGDP ≥2% · CPI <2.5%
WinnersEquities, credit, growth stocks
LosersGold, commodities, cash
ReflationGDP ≥2% · CPI ≥2.5%
WinnersCommodities, value, TIPS, EM
LosersLong-duration bonds
DeflationGDP <2% · CPI <2.5%
WinnersTreasuries, cash, quality bonds
LosersEquities, commodities, credit
StagflationGDP <2% · CPI ≥2.5%
WinnersGold, TIPS, commodities, cash
LosersEquities, long bonds, credit
Growth axis
Input: GDP YoY (
GDPC1)Rule: > 2% → growth+ · ≤ 2% → growth−
Score:
tanh((GDP − 2) / 4)Inflation axis
Input: CPI YoY (
CPIAUCSL)Rule: > 2.5% → inflation+ · ≤ 2.5% → inflation−
Score:
tanh((CPI − 2.5) / 3)Regime history (1970-present)
Goldilocks Reflation Deflation Stagflation
Regime rotation backtest
Regime rotation - applies the live detector. Rebalances quarterly using last quarter's regime call, mirroring what an investor could have actually done in real time.
Perfect foresight - cheats. Rebalances using next quarter's regime call as if you already knew it (impossible in practice, shown as the theoretical ceiling the detector could reach).
S&P 500 buy & hold - the passive benchmark. 100% S&P 500 through the full period, no decisions.
Asset mix per regime
Goldilocks
Reflation
Deflation
Stagflation
Growth vs inflation signals
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Recession Dodge Strategy
Hold the S&P 500 while the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index (NFCI) says credit is loose, and switch to T-bills when it tightens. Checked once a quarter.
In the market
- OR -
Hold cash
Current Recession Dodge call
Detecting…
Reading the latest NFCI to decide: stay invested or hold cash.
shaded = in T-bills
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Rule: 100% in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested when the NFCI averaged 0 or below in the month before each quarter, otherwise 100% in 3-month T-bills. Daily prices from January 1988, the first year of the daily total-return index. After tax assumes a taxable account: 15% on dividends and on gains held over a year, 24% on shorter gains and on T-bill interest, losses carried forward, no state tax, everything sold at the end. The NFCI's past values are revised as new data arrives, so the backtest uses today's version of the index.
Global Economic Calendar
The major releases outside the US: euro-area CPI and GDP, ECB, BoE and BoJ decisions, UK CPI, China PMI and GDP. Times in ET, with impact ratings. Central-bank dates follow each bank’s published schedule.
Building calendar…
Schedule: each release's standard pattern (euro-area flash CPI at month-end, UK CPI mid-month, China PMI on the month's last day) plus the published 2026 meeting calendars of the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Previous prints and actuals: live from each region's official statistical source, the ECB Data Portal (euro-area and German inflation, euro-area unemployment and GDP), the UK Office for National Statistics (UK CPI, unemployment and retail sales) and FRED (ECB deposit rate). A value appears only once the source has published the event's own reference period, so a release the source hasn't posted yet shows '-' rather than an older number. Releases whose official sources publish too slowly for a live feed show schedule only. Times in ET: overnight Asian releases appear the ET evening before their local morning.
US Economic Calendar
Every major US release: payrolls, CPI, PCE, FOMC, GDP, ISM, jobless claims and more. Times in ET, impact ratings, and the prior print live from FRED. Dates are recurring estimates.
Building calendar…
Schedule: each indicator's standard release pattern (CPI mid-month, jobs report the first Friday, FOMC eight times a year). Previous prints and actuals: live from FRED. Times in ET.
Recession Indicators Dashboard
A heuristic US recession risk score from seven macro indicators. It is not a calibrated forecast probability or a claim of validated hit rates. For market-drawdown risk, see Crash Risk.
US economic recession risk score
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Heuristic score / 100, not a calibrated probability. No held-out forecast validation or prospective accuracy is claimed.
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LowModerateHigh
Indicator scorecard
Yield curve inversion history
Shaded red regions show when the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread went negative (inverted). Every one of those windows since 1969 preceded a recession, except the 2022-24 period which has so far only produced slowing growth.
Stock Market Crash Indicators
Market fragility scored from six stress and valuation indicators. This is an uncalibrated score, not the chance of a drawdown over a specified horizon. For economic-recession risk, see Recession Risk.
US drawdown risk score
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CheapFairBubble
Reading live valuation metrics against their 30-year history…
Indicator scorecard
Composite risk score history
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Composite drawdown risk score over time, recomputed each month from the same threshold table the live gauge uses. Spikes above 60% lined up with 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007-08, 2020, 2022 and 2025-26; dips below 25% lined up with 1982 and 2009. Months Shiller's dataset hasn't finalized yet use the latest published monthly CAPE / P/E / dividend-yield readings, so the newest data points match the freshest available values.
Bubble meter
A different question from the drawdown gauge above: not "will the market fall?" but "does today look like a bubble?" Inspired by Ray Dalio's six classic bubble questions: are prices high relative to traditional measures, are prices counting on unsustainable growth, are new buyers flooding in, is sentiment broadly bullish, are purchases being financed with leverage, and is corporate investment running at boom levels. Each gauge is scored 0-100 against its own full history and the dial averages the six. Past bubble peaks (1929, 2000, 2021) pushed most gauges into their top deciles; washed-out bottoms (1982, 2009) sat near the floor. Click any gauge for what it measures and how.
Bubbliness
-
loading
DepressedFairBubble
Scoring the six bubble questions against their full history…
Bubble score history
-
The six bubble questions asked of every past month, each scored the way the dial above scores today and averaged over the gauges with a reading at the time.
Buffett indicator
-
US stock market value as a share of GDP, the gauge Warren Buffett once called the best single measure of where valuations stand.
Bubble score history. Gauges enter the average as their data begins: the CAPE and the growth gap from the 1870s (Shiller), margin debt and business investment from the late 1940s (Federal Reserve Z.1, BEA via FRED), the VIX over the last ten years and trading turnover over the last three. Each month’s score is the plain average of the gauges available then; the rightmost point is the live dial.
Buffett indicator. Stock market value is the Federal Reserve’s quarterly market value of US nonfinancial corporate stock (Z.1 Financial Accounts, via FRED), divided by nominal GDP (BEA, via FRED), from 1947. The latest quarter is carried to today with the daily move of the Wilshire 5000 total market index, and GDP is the latest reported quarter. The Fed’s measure leaves out banks and insurers, so readings sit a little below total-market versions; every point in the history is measured the same way.
Buffett indicator. Stock market value is the Federal Reserve’s quarterly market value of US nonfinancial corporate stock (Z.1 Financial Accounts, via FRED), divided by nominal GDP (BEA, via FRED), from 1947. The latest quarter is carried to today with the daily move of the Wilshire 5000 total market index, and GDP is the latest reported quarter. The Fed’s measure leaves out banks and insurers, so readings sit a little below total-market versions; every point in the history is measured the same way.
Compound Interest
Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.
Inputs
$
$
%
yrs
$
Results
Total interest earned
$0
Total contributed
$0
Interest % of total
0%
Final value
$0
Growth chart
Annual contribution Cumulative contributions Cumulative interest Annual interest
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Annual Contribution | Cumulative Contributions | Cumulative Interest | Annual Interest | Balance |
|---|
Congress Stock Trades Tracker
A live feed of stock-trade disclosures from the US Senate and House. Plus a profile of every member of Congress: their latest filings and most-traded tickers.
Latest disclosed trades
| Traded | Filed | Member | Party | Chamber | Ticker | Name | Type | Amount |
|---|
Congressional traders
Every periodic transaction report filed with the Clerk of the House and the Secretary of the Senate since January 1 of last year, read from the official filings each night, plus a live disclosure feed checked every hour for reports filed in between. Each Filed date links to the original report. Reports filed on paper are scanned pages, so they are listed with a link and no trades rather than transcribed; so is a report with an entry that cannot be read with certainty, such as a trade dated after the report itself. An amended Senate report replaces the report it corrects. Amounts are the ranges the law requires, not exact values.
Earnings & IPO Calendar
The week ahead for US equities. Who reports earnings, with consensus EPS, and which IPOs are coming. Spot volatility events before they hit your holdings.
Upcoming earnings, next 14 days
| Date | Symbol | Company | When | EPS est. | Revenue est. |
|---|
Upcoming IPOs, next 30 days
| Date | Symbol | Company | Exchange | Price | Shares |
|---|
Live earnings-consensus and IPO-schedule data. Estimates and IPO terms are revised often and can be withdrawn, so confirm against the company's filings before trading. "When" is Pre-mkt (before the open), After close, or Midday.
Rental Property Analyzer
Institutional-style underwriting for a single rental. Cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR and IRR, plus a full value-add story. Year-by-year cash flows included.
Inputs
Core property assumptions
Financing
Value-add assumptions
The renovation/stabilization ramp and capital spend. Leave at defaults (or set current = renovated = stabilized rent and capex to 0) for a straightforward buy-and-hold.
Results
Cap rate
0%
Cash-on-cash
0%
Monthly cash flow
$0
IRR (hold period)
0%
Cash flow & equity over time
Year-by-year projection
| Year | Rent | Op. exp. | NOI | Debt svc | Cash flow | Property value | Loan balance | Equity |
|---|
IRR uses the exit-cap assumption to mark the property at sale (NOI at exit ÷ exit cap), net of selling costs and remaining loan balance. Renovation period = months with no rent and full capex burn; stabilization period = months with current-rent inflow ramping toward stabilized rent. Excludes income taxes, depreciation recapture and 1031 exchanges.
Mortgage Calculator
Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.
Inputs
Loan inputs
$
%
Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
%
$
%/yr
Results
Monthly debt service
$0
Total interest
$0
Total paid
$0
all payments + down
Loan-to-value
0%
Amortization chart
15-year vs 30-year comparison
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization schedule
| Year | Month | Payment | Principal | Interest | Balance | Home equity | Home value | Unreal. appr. | Total equity |
|---|
Buy vs Rent Property Calculator
Buy a home, or rent the same place and invest the difference? Enter one property’s real numbers. See who comes out ahead, year by year.
Inputs
Personal assumptionsSame for both Sally and Jack
$
$/mo
yrs
%
Sally's home purchase
$
%
%
yrs
%
$/mo
$/mo
$/mo
%/yr
%
%
%/yr
$0
Jack's rental life
$
%
Results
Breakeven year
-
When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Jack's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Advantage
-
At end of time horizon
Net worth over time
Monthly cost comparison
Year-by-year comparison
| Year | Sally cost/yr | Jack cost/yr | Sally's principal pay down | Sally's appreciation | Sally's investments | Sally total NW | Jack total NW | Who wins |
|---|
Use the same property for both sides: the home's listing price on the buy side, its asking rent on the rent side. Sally buys the home; Jack rents the very same place. Both start with the same savings and earn the same monthly income, so it's a true apples-to-apples comparison.
Sally deploys her down payment plus closing costs into the home and keeps the rest invested. She pays mortgage P&I plus property taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance every month. Jack invests his entire starting savings and pays the asking rent each month.
Each month both characters take their identical income, pay their housing cost, and invest the leftover at your chosen return rate (e.g. S&P 500 ~8% long-run). End-of-horizon net worth = invested portfolio (both) + home equity (Sally only).
Sally deploys her down payment plus closing costs into the home and keeps the rest invested. She pays mortgage P&I plus property taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance every month. Jack invests his entire starting savings and pays the asking rent each month.
Each month both characters take their identical income, pay their housing cost, and invest the leftover at your chosen return rate (e.g. S&P 500 ~8% long-run). End-of-horizon net worth = invested portfolio (both) + home equity (Sally only).
Buy vs Lease Car Calculator
Donald pays cash, Frank finances, Nancy rolls leases: identical income, savings and hold period. Each invests whatever is left after car costs. Ending net worth = portfolio + car equity.
Inputs
Personal assumptionsSame for Donald, Frank, and Nancy
$
$/mo
yrs
%
%
%
24%
VehicleSame car for both scenarios
$
%
mi
$/mo
%/yr
$0
Tax incentives & business use
2026 prospective acquisitions: federal new, used and commercial clean-vehicle credits ended for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. No federal EV credit is modeled. Any dealer discount should be reflected in your actual price or lease quote. IRS eligibility and historical exceptions.
%
Pick an EV status or LLC category to see tax savings applied to the winner.
Donald buys (cash)
$/yr
$0
Frank finances
%
%
mo
$/yr
$0/mo
Nancy leases
$/mo
mo
$
$
$
/yr
$/mi
$700/mo
Results
Donald total / mo
$0
insurance + maintenance only (paid cash)
Frank total / mo
$0
loan + insurance + maintenance
Nancy total / mo
$0
lease + insurance + fees
Donald (buy cash)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Frank (finance)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Nancy (lease)
$0
Invested portfolio only
Best scenario
-
Who wins, by how much
Net worth over time
Cumulative out-of-pocket cost
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Donald net worth | Frank net worth | Nancy net worth | Donald spent | Frank spent | Nancy spent |
|---|
FIRE Calculator and Early Retirement Planner
When can you reach financial independence? Enter what you have, what you save, and what you’ll spend. You get your FIRE year on the 4% rule, plus Coast FIRE, all in today’s dollars.
FIRE = a portfolio big enough to cover your living costs for good. Your target is 25× your annual spending (the 4% rule). The tabs above pressure-test it.
Inputs
FIRE style shortcuts, or just type your own spending below
yrs
$
$
$
%
%
Results
Your FI number
$0
Years to FI
-
FI age
-
Coast FIRE number
$0
Progress to your FI number
$0
Path to financial independenceFI number
Contributions Total balance (green above blue = growth) FI number (target)
Year-by-year projection
| Age | Year | Contributed (yr) | Growth (yr) | Balance | % to FI |
|---|
All figures are in today's dollars, so use a real (after-inflation) return: the long-run real return of a 100% stock portfolio has been ~7%, a 60/40 ~5%. The 4% rule (25× spending) comes from the Trinity study and assumes a ~30-year retirement; longer retirements or early retirement argue for 3.25-3.5%. Coast FIRE assumes a target retirement age of 65 and no further contributions. Excludes Social Security, pensions and taxes on withdrawals.
One average return hides the risk. This runs 1,000 randomized market paths through your plan. You see the full fan of outcomes, and the odds your money lasts.
Inputs
$
$
yrs
$
yrs
%
%
1,000 paths, drawn from a normal return each year.
Results
Chance money lasts
-
Median at retirement
$0
Median at end
$0
Unlucky case (10th %)
$0
Fan of outcomes in today's dollars
10th-90th percentile 25th-75th percentile Median path
Each of 1,000 paths draws an independent annual return from a normal distribution with your mean and volatility, compounding the balance while adding contributions before retirement and subtracting spending after. "Chance money lasts" is the fraction of paths that never hit zero during retirement. Real markets have fat tails, autocorrelation and sequence risk that a normal distribution understates, so treat this as a guide, not a guarantee. Results are seeded so they're stable as you adjust inputs.
A DRIP reinvests every dividend into more shares automatically. Those shares pay dividends too, compounding for decades. Taxable accounts pay tax each year; an IRA / 401(k) compounds untouched.
Inputs
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Account type
Results
Value (reinvested)
$0
Total dividends
$0
Reinvesting adds
$0
Lost to tax drag
$0
Reinvest vs take the cash
Dividends reinvested Dividends taken as cash
Annual dividend income
The income snowball: dividends paid each year as your reinvested share count grows.
Models a starting price of $100/share scaled to your investment. Each year, dividends are paid on shares held (growing at the dividend-growth rate), taxed if the account is taxable, and the after-tax amount buys more shares at the year-end price. The cash path holds shares constant and accumulates after-tax dividends without reinvesting. Tax drag is the value a taxable account loses versus the same holding in a tax-advantaged account. Excludes share-price volatility, fees and dividend cuts; assumes dividends stay qualified.
House Affordability Calculator
How much house can you actually afford? Lenders cap housing near 28% of gross income and total debt near 36%. Enter income and debts. We solve for the max price.
Inputs
Lending standard
$
$
$
%
yrs
%
%
$/mo
Results
Max home price
$0
Loan amount
$0
Monthly payment
$0
Down payment
0%
Monthly payment breakdown
Affordable price vs mortgage rate
How your max home price shrinks as rates rise. The dot marks your current rate.
Front-end ratio caps housing cost (principal, interest, tax, insurance, HOA, PMI) at a share of gross income; back-end ratio caps housing plus all other debt. The binding constraint sets your price. PMI of 0.5%/yr is added automatically when the down payment is under 20%. This estimates borrowing capacity, not a recommendation. Many buyers choose to spend well below the max. Excludes maintenance, utilities and closing costs.
Debt Payoff Planner
List your debts and your monthly budget. Get a concrete plan: what to pay, to which debt, starting when. Uses the avalanche method, the mathematically cheapest way out.
Inputs
Your monthly budget
$
$
$
Your debts
Debt nameBalanceAPR %Min /mo
Results
Total debt
$0
Debt-free in
-
Total interest
$0
Saves vs minimums
$0
Balance over time
Your plan Minimums only
Your payoff plan: what to pay, and when
Each month, every debt accrues interest at APR÷12, minimum payments are made on all active debts, and your budget surplus (take-home income minus essentials, minus the flexible spending you keep, minus all minimums) goes to the highest-APR debt, plus the minimums freed up by already-cleared debts. Attacking the highest rate first is always the cheapest path out of debt. If a debt's minimum doesn't cover its monthly interest, it will never amortize. The plan will flag it.
Roth vs Traditional IRA / 401(k)
One question decides this: pay tax now, or pay tax later? This tool puts the same dollars into each and shows what you actually keep.
ROTH · tax now, never again
−Paycheck is taxed first: you contribute after-tax dollars
↓
◈Grows tax-free for decades: no tax on dividends or gains, ever
↓
✓Withdraw 100% tax-free in retirement (59½+)
TRADITIONAL · tax later
✓Contribute pre-tax: the contribution is deducted, cutting this year's tax bill
↓
◈Grows tax-deferred: nothing taxed while it compounds
↓
−Every withdrawal is taxed as ordinary income in retirement
Rule of thumb Higher retirement tax rates favor Roth; lower rates favor Traditional. The break-even rate below also accounts for tax on the invested deduction’s gains.
Inputs
$
yrs
yrs
%
%
%
Results
Roth (after tax)
$0
Traditional (after tax)
$0
Winner
-
Total contributed
$0
After-tax value in retirement
Roth advantage vs your retirement tax rate
The higher your retirement tax rate, the more Roth's tax-free withdrawals are worth versus Traditional. The dot marks your assumption.
Both paths use the same annual take-home budget. Each retirement account receives the entered contribution; Traditional also invests its tax deduction in a taxable side account. We assume full deductibility, tax the Traditional withdrawal at your retirement rate, and tax positive side-account gains once at 15% at retirement. No annual side-account tax drag, income limits, employer match, required distributions, state taxes or future tax-law changes are modeled. Check eligibility and contribution limits separately.
Net Worth Calculator
Add what you own, subtract what you owe. Custom items welcome. See how you rank against US households and every adult on Earth. Overall, and for your age group.
Inputs
Assets: what you own$0
Liabilities: what you owe$0
Results
Net worth
$0
Total assets
$0
Total liabilities
$0
US percentile
-
Asset composition
Where you stand
10-year net worth projection
Type an expected percentage return for each asset, year by year (negative is fine), or set one number for everything with "Apply to all". Each asset compounds on its own, today's liabilities are subtracted, and each year's savings (income minus expenses) is added to your investments.
%
$
$
Ending balance by year and asset
Projected net worth in 10 years
$0
US household net worth percentiles and age-group medians from the Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (released October 2023; figures via DQYDJ). Net worth = assets minus liabilities. Percentile is interpolated from the published distribution and is an estimate. Median US household net worth in 2022 was about $192,000; the top 10% started near $1.9M and the top 1% near $13.7M. Global figures: UBS Global Wealth Report 2023 (per adult, year-end 2022): global median wealth ~$8,654, top 10% from ~$137,000, top 1% from ~$1.08M. US net worth is per household and global per adult, so the two aren't strictly comparable.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Estimator
Selling a loser banks a capital loss and saves tax now. But it lowers your cost basis, so much of the saving is deferred, not erased. This estimates the honest, net value.
Inputs
$
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Results
Tax saved this year
$0
Loss carried forward
$0
Net benefit (today's $)
$0
Value kept per $ loss
0%
Where your loss goes, and what you actually keep
The economics, in today's dollars
Net benefit vs how long you defer
The longer until you sell, the more the deferred tax shrinks in present value. The dot marks your horizon.
30-day wash-sale rule
Purchasing a substantially identical security within 30 days before or after a loss sale can disallow the loss. There is no deadline to buy a replacement. Review purchases across accounts, including automatic reinvestment and IRA or spousal accounts. A different ticker alone does not establish that an investment is sufficiently different. IRS Publication 550.
Deferral, not free money
Your basis drops by the harvested loss, so a bigger gain is taxed when you eventually sell.
Where the real value is
Time value of investing the up-front saving, plus offsetting high-rate income now vs low-rate gains later.
Estimate only
Ignores AMT, net investment income tax and the long/short-term split within gains; assumes the replacement recovers. Not tax advice.
The net-benefit scenario counts current-year tax savings only. Carryforward is shown separately with no assumed use date or present value. Future basis-recovery tax assumes the full modeled gain is taxable and no carryforward offsets it; actual carryforward usage can lower that cost. Filing status is assumed single or married filing jointly ($3,000 ordinary-income offset).
Lump Sum vs Dollar-Cost Averaging
Got a windfall? Markets rise more often than they fall, so investing it all at once usually wins. Here’s the backtest across every starting point since 1928.
Inputs
$
Results
Lump sum won
0%
Avg lump advantage
0%
DCA won
0%
DCA's best win
-
Lump sum vs DCA, by starting year
Lump sum ended ahead DCA ended ahead. Each bar is how much lump sum beat (or trailed) DCA for that start year.
Backtest uses annual S&P 500 total returns (Damodaran/NYU), 1928-2025. "Lump sum" invests the whole amount at the start of year one; "DCA" invests an equal slice at the start of each year over the spread, with uninvested cash assumed to earn nothing. Both are valued at the end of the spread. Because stocks rise in about two-thirds of years, lump sum usually wins. Dollar-cost averaging mainly helps when you'd have bought right before a crash, and its real value is behavioral (it's easier to stomach). The classic Vanguard study finds lump sum wins ~68% of rolling 12-month periods; spreading over more years widens the lump-sum edge.
Dividend Calculator & Income Calendar
Turn your portfolio into a paycheck schedule. Enter your dividend stocks, ETFs and Treasuries with amounts held. See monthly income, blended yield, and 20 years of compounding.
Your holdings
Add a Treasury / bond
Factor Regression
A few academic “factors” explain most of what any fund does. Regress any US ticker on them: market, size, value, profitability, investment, momentum. See what you really own, and whether any alpha is left.
Portfolio X-Ray
The X-Ray has been retired. The Portfolio Backtester tests your exact mix: returns, drawdowns, yearly results and the efficient frontier.
Taking you there... if nothing happens, open the Portfolio Backtester.
Stock Market Heatmap
A live heat map of the 160 largest S&P 500 companies: tile size is live market cap, color is today’s move. Green up, red down. Click any tile for its full chart. Below the map, every sector’s total return by window.
S&P 500 · today
Zoom in to read smaller tiles; scroll to explore.
Tile size = live market cap · color = % change vs previous close · auto-refreshes every 5 minutes while you're on this page · universe = the 160 largest S&P 500 companies, grouped by sector.
Sector Return Chart
All 11 GICS sectors across time windows, color-coded so leadership and laggards jump out: green = outperforming, red = underperforming.
Daily dividend-adjusted closes (total return) of the SPDR sector ETFs against SPY; the table re-pulls on its own every five minutes while the page is open.
Yield Curve Chart and Inversion History
The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Every inversion is visible. Short above long has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.
Showing
-
2s10s spread
-
10y-3m spread
-
Shape
-
Drag to scrub · 1976 → today
The curve on this date
2s10s spread through history
Below zero (shaded red) = inverted. The marker tracks the date shown at left.
Monthly constant-maturity US Treasury yields from FRED (TB3MS, GS1, GS2, GS5, GS10, GS30), 1976-present, with the final frame rebuilt from the daily series (DGS3MO, DGS1, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30) so the curve ends on the latest close. The 30-year series has a gap from 2002-2006 when the bond was discontinued. An inverted curve (2s10s or 10y-3m below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6-18 months, though timing varies. Yields are nominal.
Foreign Exchange
Live currency conversion, historical charts for major pairs, and cross rates.
Converter
Result
-- --
Fetching rates...
USD/EUR1 year
-
Dollar index (DXY)
Spot
--
5Y change
--
Basket composition
| Currency | Weight |
|---|---|
| EUR · Euro | 57.6% |
| JPY · Japanese yen | 13.6% |
| GBP · British pound | 11.9% |
| CAD · Canadian dollar | 9.1% |
| SEK · Swedish krona | 4.2% |
| CHF · Swiss franc | 3.6% |
A weaker dollar tends to lift gold, EM equities, commodities, and US large-cap earnings from foreign sales. A stronger dollar does the opposite.
EUR / USD
-
US dollars per 1 euro (updated daily).
USD / JPY
-
Japanese yen per 1 US dollar (updated daily).
GBP / USD
-
US dollars per 1 British pound (updated daily).
USD / CNY
-
Chinese yuan per 1 US dollar (updated daily).
Top 10 weekly appreciating vs USD
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
| Currency | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||
Top 10 weekly depreciating vs USD
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
| Currency | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||
Cross rates vs USD
| Currency | Rate (per 1 USD) | Inverse (USD per 1) |
|---|
Stock Screener
Filter every US-listed stock by valuation, profitability, growth, dividend, leverage, and risk.
Filters
Style presets Famous investors
Top Stocks
Every listed US company, ranked by annual return since it started trading, dividends included. The risk-return chart plots the top 25.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
ETF Analyzer
Type any ETF ticker for a one-screen breakdown. Holdings and weights, performance vs a benchmark you pick, fees vs peers, leverage and risk. Everything computed live.
Enter an ETF ticker above, or tap one of the popular picks, to analyze it.
Market history and dated fund reports are combined here. Returns, volatility, max drawdown and Sharpe are computed from weekly dividend-adjusted history: the same series and method behind the Equities page and the ETF, stock and REIT pickers, so the same fund shows the same number everywhere; fund facts use live fields when supplied and dated SEC/issuer snapshots otherwise. Fees vs peers compares the expense ratio, when the fund discloses one, to a representative category average. The risk read is an indicative, rules-based summary, not advice. Verify before investing.
Momentum Monitor
Every US-listed stock ranked by momentum: how much each gained over the last 12 months, leaving out the latest month. The top fifth are the leaders.
Universe: every US-listed company the Stock Screener covers, one row per company (the S&P 500 plus every listed company and REIT), with at least a year of trading history. Momentum is the total return, dividends included, from 12 months ago to one month ago; the latest month is left out because the biggest recent winners tend to give some back first. Rankings are recomputed every night from daily prices after the close; prices and daily moves on screen are live. The long-run record comes from Kenneth French’s data library at Dartmouth: every NYSE, AMEX and Nasdaq stock since 1927, with the top fifth by the same 12-month-minus-one-month return rebalanced monthly and compared with the average stock. The live record in the chart buys the leaders at each of the last twelve month-ends and compares them with every ranked stock, equally weighted. Small and thinly traded companies are included, as they are in the research; their prices swing more. Momentum describes recent price strength only. It says nothing about valuation and is not investment advice.
Stock Analyzer
Type any US stock ticker for a full research report. DCF, comps, ratios, management, risks, and a conviction price target.
Top Bond ETFs
Every bond ETF listed in the US, ranked by annual return since launch and compared on yield, risk and tax efficiency. The risk-return chart plots the top 25.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Yields are live. Risk metrics are from published fund data.
Top REITs
Every US-listed REIT and REIT ETF, ranked by annual return since it started trading, dividends included. The risk-return chart plots the top 25.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Best ETFs, Compared
Every ETF listed in the US, overall and by category, ranked by annual return since launch (net of fees). The risk-return chart plots each list’s top 25.
Factor Loading…
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Academic Study Analyzer
Landmark finance studies explained in plain English. What each found, how strong the evidence is, and the catch. Search the library and open any study for the full breakdown.
Study library-
Plain-English summaries are editorial interpretations written for learning, not a substitute for the original papers. Follow each link to read the source. Citation counts are undated editorial estimates, not current verified Google Scholar totals; influence levels are editorial.
Alpha Room
My personal, timestamped calls on generating alpha. Each idea carries a trade, a time horizon, and a return tracked live from the day of the call.
Free preview Membership coming soon Read more ▾
Every tool on this site is free, forever. They let you do your own research and reach your own conclusions, and that will never change.
The Alpha Room is different. It’s my personal, specific calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. It’s free for now, but it will move behind a yearly membership soon. Every call below is timestamped, carries a trade and a time horizon, and is tracked in an honest rolling scorecard, so you can see exactly how each idea has done since I called it.
The Alpha Room is different. It’s my personal, specific calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. It’s free for now, but it will move behind a yearly membership soon. Every call below is timestamped, carries a trade and a time horizon, and is tracked in an honest rolling scorecard, so you can see exactly how each idea has done since I called it.
Current Calls
The names I’d actually buy right now: core conviction holds plus a few tactical momentum rides. Each return is tracked live from the day I called it.
Track record-
Current Tips
What to do with the money you’re not putting to work, and how to protect the downside if you’d rather play defense.
Rolling history of calls
Every call ever made, open or closed, with how it’s done since the timestamp. This is an append-only record: calls are never edited or removed, and the misses stay too.
Not investment advice. The Alpha Room is one person’s opinion, shared for education and discussion. Returns are tracked from public market data (price return since the call date, before dividends), not actual fills, and past calls do not predict future results. Do your own research; positions and prices change. Nothing here is advice personalized to you.
Famous Investors & Their Portfolios
The 28 most influential investors in history: the firms they built, what they believed in their own words, the positions that made them famous and the trades that defined them.
The legends
Sort
Big Trades
What the most-watched money managers are doing, and how the biggest hedge funds have actually performed. Live 13F and 13D/G filings from SEC EDGAR with each manager’s latest buys and sells, a read on their posture, and the track records of the most famous funds against the S&P 500.
What they bought and sold last quarter
How this is measured
| Manager | Snapshot | Bought | Sold |
|---|
Latest SEC filings
What these filings mean
| Filed | Trades as of | Manager | Form | What it is |
|---|
Current posture, manager by manager
The publicly-known posture and most recent notable moves of today’s biggest active investors, compiled from their filings, shareholder letters and interviews.
Hedge fund track records: funds with disclosed returns
Since-inception annualized return vs S&P 500
Legendary & now-private funds
These managers are too secretive, closed, or converted to family offices to publish reliable year-by-year returns. Shown as historical profiles, not in the table above.
Manager filings. Filings load live from SEC EDGAR (each manager’s public submissions feed) and link to the original documents; 13F positions are disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end, so even "live" filings describe last quarter’s book. Bought / Sold compares the two most recent quarterly snapshots (equity positions only), so it shows net quarter-over-quarter changes: a position bought and sold within the same quarter never appears. Posture cards are editorial summaries of public statements, not filings data. Not investment advice.
About these numbers. Hedge funds aren't required to disclose returns, so everything here except Pershing Square (publicly listed, audited NAV) is compiled from press reporting: LCH Investments annual manager rankings (via the Financial Times / Institutional Investor), Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Hedgeweek, fund investor letters, and Gregory Zuckerman's The Man Who Solved the Market for Renaissance. AUM and returns are point-in-time, approximate and may be revised. Trailing periods (1Y to 20Y) are annualized through calendar 2025, not live, so a brokerage quote will differ: Pershing Square rows are fund NAV performance, while the listed shares (PSH / PSHZF) trade daily at a discount to NAV and reflect the current year's moves. "n/d" = not disclosed; "Beats S&P?" compares since-inception annualized return to the S&P 500's long-run ~10.5%/yr total return. Not investment advice.
About these numbers. Hedge funds aren't required to disclose returns, so everything here except Pershing Square (publicly listed, audited NAV) is compiled from press reporting: LCH Investments annual manager rankings (via the Financial Times / Institutional Investor), Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Hedgeweek, fund investor letters, and Gregory Zuckerman's The Man Who Solved the Market for Renaissance. AUM and returns are point-in-time, approximate and may be revised. Trailing periods (1Y to 20Y) are annualized through calendar 2025, not live, so a brokerage quote will differ: Pershing Square rows are fund NAV performance, while the listed shares (PSH / PSHZF) trade daily at a discount to NAV and reflect the current year's moves. "n/d" = not disclosed; "Beats S&P?" compares since-inception annualized return to the S&P 500's long-run ~10.5%/yr total return. Not investment advice.
Asset Correlations Updated yearly
How assets move together, in normal times and in crashes. Averages for ~2010-2025, crash windows, and a longest-term matrix. Or build your own with any tickers and any window.
Build your own correlation matrix
Add 2-8 tickers (any stock, ETF or crypto, plus US housing from the Case-Shiller index), pick the return interval and lookback, and the matrix computes from live price history.
Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrix
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs 30-49 yrs 10-29 yrs <10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Build your own matrix. Pearson correlation of overlapping periodic returns (dividend-adjusted closes; "US housing" uses the monthly Case-Shiller national index from FRED, so adding it forces monthly returns). Short windows and few observations make correlations noisy. The observation count is shown so you can judge. Market-price requests cover up to 10 years at each interval, subject to available overlapping data. The housing series is monthly only.
Fixed matrices.
Fixed matrices.
The AI Race
Country and company scorecards on the metrics that define the AI race: model quality, model velocity, training compute, investment, chips, patents, talent, and data-center power.
Country scorecard: share of globalStanford HAI · WIPO · Synergy
Each country's share of the global total on six measurable AI-race metrics. Darker bar = bigger share.
| Country | Private $ | Models | Talent | Patents | DC capacity | DC power |
|---|
Data-center power capacitySynergy '24
Top countries by total data-center capacity (GW). Compute = power; these are the physical plants where AI gets built.
Data-center electricity useIEA '24
Annual TWh consumed by data centers. 2026 projections shown as lighter bars.
Private AI investment (cumulative 2013-2024)Stanford HAI '25
Notable AI models released (2025)Stanford HAI '26
Top AI labs by training computeEpoch AI '26
Flagship-model training compute, log scale. Bigger = more compute thrown at the largest public model.
| Lab | Country | Flagship model | Training FLOPs | Log10(FLOPs) |
|---|
Best AI models by benchmark intelligenceArtificial Analysis '26
Frontier models ranked by composite benchmark score. Bar color = country of origin lab.
| # | Model | Lab | Country | Intelligence index |
|---|
Notable AI models released per year, globalEpoch AI '25
Top-tier AI talent concentrationMacroPolo '23
AI patent share (WIPO 2024)WIPO '24
| Metric | Series | Provider |
|---|---|---|
| Private $ | Cumulative private AI investment (2013-2024) | Stanford HAI: AI Index Report 2025 |
| Models | Notable Models database (model counts + training compute) | Epoch AI |
| Model quality | Frontier-model intelligence index (composite reasoning / coding / math evals, max reasoning settings; August 2026) | Artificial Analysis |
| DC power | National electricity consumption by data centers (2024 estimate) | IEA: Electricity 2024 (Data Centres chapter) |
| DC capacity | Hyperscale data-center capacity (quarterly) | Synergy Research Group |
| Patents | Global AI patent filings by country (2024) | WIPO |
| Talent | Top-tier researcher distribution (Global AI Talent Tracker, 2023) | MacroPolo |
| Training FLOPs | Frontier-model training compute (Epoch credible estimates) | Epoch AI |
Caveats: compute and chip figures are estimates; labs and chipmakers rarely disclose exact numbers. Values are point-in-time figures from the reports above (latest editions: Stanford HAI AI Index Report 2026, Epoch AI Oct 2026, IEA), not live feeds.
Model Portfolios, Backtested
Famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. Data is approximate and historical. Past performance is not a guarantee.
Portfolios
0
Highest CAGR
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Best Sharpe
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Shallowest DD
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Comparison table
| Portfolio | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Best year | Worst year | Stocks % |
|---|
Card stats are full-history reference values (US data, 1972-2025, annual rebalancing) from published long-run asset-class returns; click any card to recompute live from its ETFs over their actual overlap. Sharpe ratios assume Rf ≈ 3-month T-bill (~4% long-run avg); ±0.05 vs source is normal due to differing Rf and rebalance assumptions. Excludes taxes and transaction costs.
Articles
Original research and analysis by Luis Nunez. Also available on Substack for email delivery.
Gold as a Crisis Asset
Research article in preparation
This article is not available yet
The historical analysis and interactive charts have not been published. Explore gold and other commodity exposures or read our published articles.
Asset Class Returns by Decade Updated yearly
Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.
negativestrong positive
Total returns heatmap
| Decade | Stocks | Cash | Gov Bonds | Corp Bonds | Housing | REITs | Gold | Inflation |
|---|
| Asset | Series | Provider |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks | S&P 500 total return (incl. dividends) | NYU Stern / Damodaran |
| Cash | 3-Month US Treasury Bills | NYU Stern / FRED |
| Gov Bonds | 10-Year US Treasury total return | NYU Stern / Damodaran |
| Corp Bonds | Moody's BAA Corporate Bond total return | Damodaran / Barclays |
| Housing | Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (price only) | Robert Shiller / FRED |
| REITs | FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs total return (since 1972) | NAREIT |
| Gold | Year-end spot price per troy oz | Kitco / World Gold Council |
| Inflation | CPI-U annual average | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Annualized geometric means for the full decade (Jan 1 of start year to Dec 31 of end year). 2020s covers 2020-2024. Real estate reflects home-price appreciation only. Total return including rental income would be higher. "N/A" indicates data not available for that period.
Financial Dictionary
Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Click any cross-referenced term inside a definition to jump straight to it.
Return Drivers
The S&P 500 moved this year, but why? Gains can only come from earnings, the P/E multiple, buybacks, and currency. This page splits the move into those pieces.
SPX YTD
-
refreshed daily
Earnings contribution
-
Mag-7 share of growth
P/E multiple
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trailing P/E change
Top-10 concentration
-
top 10 companies · % of S&P 500
Driver decomposition · return contribution
Mag-7 contribution to SPX return this year
Computed at load time from live S&P 500, Mag-7 and dollar-index closes plus dated published anchors: trailing P/E 27.98 (Jan 1, 2026), 28.42 (Oct 1, 2025, the start anchor for the T12 view) and 26.15 (Oct 1, 2026) from published S&P index data; Mag-7 EPS share and foreign-revenue share from FactSet Earnings Insight (Jul 2, 2026); forward P/E context from FactSet Earnings Insight (Oct 2, 2026); buyback pace from S&P Dow Jones Indices; start-of-2026 index weights as of Dec 31, 2025; top-10 concentration from State Street SPY daily holdings (Oct 1, 2026). Anchors update as each new quarterly report is published.
Fund flows by asset class
Where the money is moving: US-listed ETF flows by asset class, region and sector, plus income, thematic and alt channels. Data as of -.
Total ETF net flows YTD
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US-listed, all asset classes
Latest month
-
net flows, most recent month
Where it’s going
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largest inflow
Where it’s leaving
-
largest outflow
Fastest mover
-
biggest momentum shift
Monthly net flows by asset class
Asset class flows · month & YTD
US sector flows · month & YTD
Equity flows by geography
Income, thematic & alt flows
Every figure comes from a dated monthly report, as of the date in the page header.
Asset class, sector, regional, thematic and income flows: State Street Investment Management’s “US-Listed ETF Flash Flows” monthly report (Bloomberg data).
Global gold ETFs: World Gold Council gold ETF flows research (monthly).
US spot-crypto ETFs: an independent tracker’s daily creation and redemption tallies, plus press reporting.
Monthly net flows chart: each bar is that report’s own month column, split into equity, fixed income and every other asset class combined. No archived report exists for January, February or May 2026, so those three months are worked out from later reports’ trailing three-month and year-to-date columns.
Asset class, sector, regional, thematic and income flows: State Street Investment Management’s “US-Listed ETF Flash Flows” monthly report (Bloomberg data).
Global gold ETFs: World Gold Council gold ETF flows research (monthly).
US spot-crypto ETFs: an independent tracker’s daily creation and redemption tallies, plus press reporting.
Monthly net flows chart: each bar is that report’s own month column, split into equity, fixed income and every other asset class combined. No archived report exists for January, February or May 2026, so those three months are worked out from later reports’ trailing three-month and year-to-date columns.
Strategy Comparison
Side-by-side performance of the most-discussed long-term portfolio strategies, each tracked through ETFs over the same dates. Every figure is a total return: price change plus reinvested dividends.
10Y winner
-
highest CAGR
Best Sharpe
-
risk-adjusted leader
Smallest drawdown
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most defensive
YTD leader
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current momentum
Strategy scoreboard
| Strategy | YTD | 1Y | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 15Y CAGR | 20Y CAGR | Vol | Max DD | Sharpe |
|---|
Calendar-year heatmap
Scoreboard. All figures are TOTAL returns (dividends reinvested), computed from dividend-adjusted weekly prices of each strategy’s ETF proxies. Multi-asset strategies are constant-mix baskets at their standard sleeve weights (rebalanced weekly) for the trailing windows, volatility, drawdown and Sharpe; YTD rebalances once a year, on Dec 31. Volatility, drawdown and Sharpe cover each strategy’s full available history, from its youngest sleeve’s launch. “--” means not enough history for that window. Sleeves: SPX = SPY, Buffett = 90 SPY / 10 SHY, 3-fund = equal thirds VTI / VXUS / BND, 60/40 = SPY / AGG, Golden Butterfly = 20 each SPY / IJS / TLT / SHY / GLD, All Weather = 30 SPY / 40 TLT / 15 IEF / 7.5 GLD / 7.5 DBC, Permanent = 25 each SPY / TLT / GLD / BIL, risk parity = RPAR, Dragon = 24 SPY / 18 TLT / 19 GLD / 18 KMLM / 21 TAIL, dividend growth = VIG, trend following = KMLM, cash = BIL; factor and sector rows are the single ETF named in the row. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Calendar-year heatmap. Calendar-year TOTAL returns (dividends included) for every strategy on the scoreboard, computed live from each one’s ETF proxies using dividend-adjusted month-end prices, rebalanced annually on Dec 31. Years before a proxy’s launch show as “--”. ETF proxies track each strategy’s intent closely but are approximations of the published portfolios.
Calendar-year heatmap. Calendar-year TOTAL returns (dividends included) for every strategy on the scoreboard, computed live from each one’s ETF proxies using dividend-adjusted month-end prices, rebalanced annually on Dec 31. Years before a proxy’s launch show as “--”. ETF proxies track each strategy’s intent closely but are approximations of the published portfolios.
About this site
Arsenal.finance is an open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Everything is meticulously built from scratch.
Why
To give retail investors institutional-grade tools without the institutional price tag, and help them make substantially smarter financial decisions in the process.
About me, Luis Nunez
Finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.
Investment philosophy
Most people should own the market and skip the stock picking, market timing, and price predictions. The data backs this up. Unless you work inside a company, you have no real insight into what's happening there. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good couple of years before ending up roughly where they started. Beating the market over a long horizon is rare enough to qualify as a statistical anomaly.
Rare is not impossible however. And picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms is genuinely fun, part of why we're here in the first place. So I advocate for a hybrid approach: split your portfolio disproportionately in two. A core portfolio that holds the majority of your money and lets you sleep at night, and a betting portfolio that lets you age without the regret of missing the trade you were sure about.
Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous country, it shouldn't be a surprise that I'm more a fan of Smith, Friedman and Hayek than Keynes. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.
I also believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually nothing. That's prosperity at scale.
Support
I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.
Contact
Collaborate, hire, or argue about cap rates.
My portfolio
55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. That mix is 80% of my portfolio; the other 20% is my own tactical calls. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.
Terms of Service
Last updated April 14, 2026
Welcome to arsenal.finance ("the Site"), operated by Luis Nunez. By using this Site you agree to the terms below. If you don't agree, please don't use the Site.
Not financial advice
Every tool, calculator, article, dictionary definition, data feed, and piece of commentary on arsenal.finance is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this Site is financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Do not make financial decisions based solely on what you read here. Consult a licensed professional who knows your personal situation.
No warranty, no guarantee
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All original content on arsenal.finance, including the calculator logic, custom dictionary definitions, articles, visual design, and "LN take" commentary, is the copyrighted work of Luis Nunez. You may:
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Changes
These terms may change without notice. The version posted at this URL is the current version. Material changes will be noted at the top.
Contact
Questions about these terms or content licensing? Reach out via the email listed on the About page.
Privacy Policy
Last updated September 28, 2026
The short version: arsenal.finance has no accounts, no sign-up and no login. It does not ask you who you are, it does not build a profile of you, and it does not sell or share anything about you with anyone. Everything below is the long version of that.
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Contact
Questions about privacy, or a request to delete something you sent? Reach out via the About page. The Terms of Service cover everything else.
Data Policy
Last updated October 5, 2026
Arsenal combines third-party financial data with browser-local selections and observations. This policy explains what is saved and how Daily Brief is assembled. See also the Privacy Policy.
What your browser saves
My Arsenal saves asset symbols, followed economic and real-estate widgets, fixed category assignments, saved learning widgets and calculator, chart ranges and expanded or collapsed states. Daily Brief saves visit-start and last-seen timestamps, the latest successful comparison observations, momentum readings, risk and regime model outputs, and identifiers of disclosures already seen. Older saved watchlists are migrated automatically. We keep a bounded latest snapshot plus up to 600 recent chart observations per followed indicator, rather than an unlimited browsing history.
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How Daily Brief is written
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