Arsenal.finance: Free Financial Tools & Live Market Data
Markets
SPXS&P 500
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NDXNasdaq 100
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10YTreasuries
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XAUGold
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WTIOil
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BTCBitcoin
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5Y BEIInflation expect.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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US Economy Score
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Reads growth, jobs and inflation together to answer: is the economy doing well?
US Econ snapshotFRED
GDP growth
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CPI inflation · YoY
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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Fed posture
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Money supply
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Market news
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Latest articlesSubscribe on Substack →
Stock Market Dashboard
Real-time equity index prices and annualized returns across major regions. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.
Global equities indexes
| Index | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | ||
| United States | ||||||||||
| SPX S&P 500 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NDX Nasdaq 100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DJI Dow Jones Industrial | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RUT Russell 2000 (small cap) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Global | ||||||||||
| ACWI MSCI All-Country | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| VT Vanguard Total World | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Europe | ||||||||||
| VGK FTSE Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UKX UK FTSE 100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DAX Germany DAX | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAC France CAC 40 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Asia / Pacific | ||||||||||
| EWJ Japan Nikkei 225 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MCHI China MSCI | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWY South Korea KOSPI | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWH Hong Kong Hang Seng | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWA Australia ASX 200 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Emerging Markets | ||||||||||
| EEM MSCI Emerging Markets | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| INDA India Sensex (NIFTY 50) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWZ Brazil Bovespa | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EWT Taiwan TAIEX | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bonds
US Treasury benchmark, investment-grade and high-yield corporate spreads, emerging-market debt, and 13 sovereign 10Y yields with real-yield adjustments.
Bond market yieldsFRED
ICE BofA indices, effective yield
| Class | Yield | Spread vs 10Y |
|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y US Treasury benchmark | - | - |
| TIPS 10Y real yield (inflation-adj) | - | real |
| AAA AAA corporate | - | - |
| AA AA corporate | - | - |
| A A corporate | - | - |
| BBB BBB corporate | - | - |
| BB BB high yield | - | - |
| B B high yield | - | - |
| CCC CCC & below (junk) | - | - |
| EM Emerging markets | - | - |
Sovereign 10Y yieldsFRED
OECD long-term government bond rates
| Country | 10Y yield | Avg CPI (10Y) | Real yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 US United States | - | - | - |
| 🇩🇪 DE Germany | - | - | - |
| 🇬🇧 GB United Kingdom | - | - | - |
| 🇯🇵 JP Japan | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇦 CA Canada | - | - | - |
| 🇫🇷 FR France | - | - | - |
| 🇮🇹 IT Italy | - | - | - |
| 🇦🇺 AU Australia | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇭 CH Switzerland | - | - | - |
| 🇪🇸 ES Spain | - | - | - |
| 🇰🇷 KR South Korea | - | - | - |
| 🇨🇳 CN China | - | - | - |
| 🇮🇳 IN India | - | - | - |
ETF & Stock Compare
Put any few ETFs or stocks side by side: fees, returns, risk and yield, all in one view. Pick 2 to 4 to compare.
Build comparison0 of 4 columns
Start typing, then pick from the list. Searches the entire universe of listed ETFs & stocks by ticker or name. Curated names load instantly; any other ticker pulls its live data when you add it.
Side-by-side comparison
Growth of $10,000 over the past 10 yearsDividends reinvested
What this shows. How $10,000 would have grown over the past ~10 years in each fund, based on its historical returns and rescaled so every fund starts at $10,000. It is backward-looking: a record of what already happened, not a forecast of future returns and not a forward projection. The dips are real drawdowns along the way; the Max drawdown row above is the single deepest peak-to-trough fall over the period (e.g. −33% means the balance fell to about $6,700 from its prior high before recovering). Dividends reinvested, before tax; representative for the built-in names and computed from actual history for any ticker you add.
Every instrument is computed live from its actual dividend-adjusted price history: price, trailing and since-inception returns, max drawdown, beta, Sharpe, a growth-of-$10k path, and dividend yield from the real distributions paid over the last 12 months. All returns are total returns (dividends and distributions reinvested), which is why a fund that pays large cash distributions (a managed-futures ETF, say) can far outrun its own price chart. Fund-only fields such as expense ratio show for ETFs. "Best" highlights the most favourable value in each row across the selected instruments (lowest fee; highest return, yield or Sharpe; smallest drawdown). Growth of $10,000 is a hypothetical illustration, before tax, and not a live execution quote, so verify numbers with your broker before trading.
Crypto
Live prices for the 30 largest digital assets by market capitalization, stablecoins excluded. Annualized returns computed from the earliest available price.
Top 30 by market cap
| Ticker | Market cap | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | |||
| BTC Bitcoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ETH Ethereum | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SOL Solana | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XRP XRP (Ripple) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BNB BNB (Binance) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ADA Cardano | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DOGE Dogecoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AVAX Avalanche | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TRX TRON | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LINK Chainlink | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ZEC Zcash | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HYPE Hyperliquid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XMR Monero | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LEO UNUS SED LEO | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XLM Stellar | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UNI Uniswap | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BCH Bitcoin Cash | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NEAR NEAR Protocol | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LTC Litecoin | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HBAR Hedera | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SUI Sui | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SHIB Shiba Inu | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CRO Cronos | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TAO Bittensor | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OKB OKB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AAVE Aave | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MNT Mantle | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ONDO Ondo | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DOT Polkadot | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ETC Ethereum Classic | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Commodities
Live prices for 21 of the most-traded commodities across metals, energy and agriculture. Annualized returns over 1Y, 5Y, 10Y and max available history.
Top commodities
| Ticker | Price | Price change | Annualized returns | Market cap | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max | |||
| Metals | |||||||||||
| XAU Gold (GLD) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| XAG Silver (SLV) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PLAT Platinum (PPLT) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PALL Palladium (PALL) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COPPER Copper (CPER) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ALUM Aluminum ($/t) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Energy | |||||||||||
| WTI WTI crude oil (USO) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BRENT Brent crude oil (BNO) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NATGAS Natural gas (UNG) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GASOL Gasoline RBOB ($/gal) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HEATOIL Heating oil ($/gal) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| URAN Uranium (URA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Agriculture | |||||||||||
| CORN Corn ($/bu) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WHEAT Wheat ($/bu) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SOY Soybeans ($/bu) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COFFEE Coffee ($/lb) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SUGAR Sugar ($/lb) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COCOA Cocoa ($/t) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COTTON Cotton ($/lb) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CATTLE Live cattle ($/lb) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AGRI Agriculture basket (DBA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
US Economy
Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit. Live from FRED.
Macro health heatmapFRED
GDP
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CPI
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Unemployment
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Fed Funds
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Rates & Fed policy
US Treasuries yield curve
FOMC dot plot
Rate expectations
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Implied rates from CME 30-day Fed Funds futures, priced continuously by the market. Odds compare each meeting’s implied step against a standard 0.25pp move.
Interest ratesFRED
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
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Policy & money-market ratesFRED
Fed funds target range -
Effective fed funds (EFFR) -
Interest on reserves (IORB) -
Overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) -
SOFR -
Prime rate (credit cards, HELOCs) -
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Fed funds rateFRED
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Monthly average, latest point is the current target midpoint
10-year Treasury yieldFRED
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Monthly constant-maturity yield
30-year mortgage rateFRED
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Weekly survey average, plotted monthly
Growth & output
US GDPFRED
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Nominal GDP, current dollars, annualized (updated quarterly)
GDP growthFRED
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Real GDP, QoQ annualized rate
Trade balanceFRED
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Net exports of goods and services, in $ billions (updated quarterly)
US populationFRED
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Total US resident population, in millions (updated monthly)
Inflation
InflationFRED
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CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%
Core CPI -
Everyday inflation: the prices you actually payFRED
Groceries, gasoline, electricity and rent, each year-over-year, versus headline CPI (the gray line). When the colored lines run above the gray one, real life is inflating faster than the official average.
Jobs & wages
Labor market: supply, demand & priceFRED
Unemployment rateSupply
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% of labor force without a job
Job openings rateDemand
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Open jobs as % of total employment
Hires rateDemand
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Monthly hires as % of employment
Real wage growthPrice
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Median weekly real earnings, year-over-year growth (updated quarterly)
Median household incomePrice
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Real median household income, annual (inflation-adjusted dollars)
Household credit
Loan delinquency ratesFRED
Share of balances 30+ days past due at all US commercial banks, by loan type (updated quarterly). Rising delinquencies are an early sign of household stress. Heads up: this is the all-banks 30+ day rate (cards run ~3%). The 7-8% figures in the headlines are a different cut: smaller banks outside the top 100, or the NY Fed's 90+ day "serious delinquency" transition.
Credit cards
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Mortgages
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All loans & leases
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Transition into serious delinquency (90+ days)NY Fed · Q1 2026
Annualized share of balances newly rolling into 90+ days past due, by loan type, quarterly since 2003.
Share of household debt in any stage of delinquencyNY Fed · Q1 2026
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Money & liquidity
Money supply & liquidityFRED
Monetary base (M0)Narrowest
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Currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed, in $ billions (updated monthly)
Monetary base (M0) growthYoY
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M0 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Money supply (M2)Broader
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Total M2 money stock, in $ trillions (updated monthly)
Money supply (M2) growthBroader
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M2 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Fed balance sheetQE / QT
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Total Fed assets, in $ trillions (updated weekly)
Government & the budget
Government financesFRED
Government spending growthYoY growth
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Federal spending year-over-year growth, in % (updated quarterly)
Debt / GDPStock
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Federal debt as % of GDP (updated quarterly)
Federal deficitGap
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Surplus (+) or deficit (−), in $ billions (updated annually)
Personal savings rateFRED
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Personal saving as % of disposable income (updated monthly)
Federal spending by category
Sources: live indicators from FRED. Serious-delinquency and household-debt delinquency charts: NY Fed Household Debt & Credit report, 2026 Q1, released May 2026 (Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax), updated with each quarterly report. The student-loan figure is a four-quarter moving sum, and "delinquent" = 100% minus the share of balances current; the 30+ day delinquency charts are live from FRED. Federal spending by category: live from the US Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), figures rounded to the nearest billion; FYTD = fiscal-year-to-date, and the US fiscal year runs Oct 1 to Sep 30.
Global Economy
GDP share by country and global economic indicators. (FX pairs moved to the dedicated Foreign Exchange page.)
World GDPFRED + IMF WEO
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Global GDP, in $ trillions. Historical actuals: World Bank via FRED (~12-month lag). Current year + forecasts: IMF World Economic Outlook (tagged "IMF est.").
Global liquidity monitorFRED
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Combined central-bank balance sheets (Fed + ECB + BoJ), trillions $
Energy dashboard: nuclear, solar, wind, petroleumIEA / EIA 2024
Global primary energy by category2024
Energy consumption by country2024
Living standards across countriesAnnual data
Purchasing power per person (PPP)IMF WEO Oct 2025
Labor productivity ($ per hour worked)OECD 2024
Quality of life & development (UN Human Development Index)UNDP HDR 2025 (2023 data)
Sources: GDP and liquidity data live from FRED and the IMF World Economic Outlook. Energy dashboard: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024, EIA International Energy Statistics, and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 (figures rounded; updated annually). Living standards: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2025 (GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, 2025, international dollars); OECD Productivity Statistics, 2024 (GDP per hour worked, PPP); UNDP Human Development Report 2025 (HDI for 2023). Figures rounded, refreshed annually.
US Real Estate Tracker
Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.
Case-Shiller
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Median price
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30Y rate
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Starts
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Permits
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Supply
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Home price indexFRED
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Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted). S&P computes it from closed repeat sales and publishes on a ~2-month lag, so the newest point here is the newest print that exists.
30Y mortgage rateFRED
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Weekly average, 30-year fixed
Median sale priceFRED
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Median sales price of houses sold in the US: closed transactions, quarterly since 1963.
Median listing priceFRED
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Median listing (asking) price of active US listings, monthly since 2016: the earliest read on where sellers think prices are heading.
Housing starts & permitsFRED
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Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Permits (gold) lead starts (blue) by 1-2 months. When gold turns down before blue, construction is rolling over.
Months of supplyFRED
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How long inventory would last at current sales pace.
Seller's mkt <4 mo Balanced 4-6 mo Buyer's mkt >6 mo
Median days on marketVelocity
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Median days a listing sits before going under contract. Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H1 2026 (published Aug 2026).
| Sector | Cap rate | 10Y Avg | Spread vs 10Y Tsy |
|---|---|---|---|
| All All property | - | - | - |
| Indus Industrial | - | - | - |
| Multi Multifamily | - | - | - |
| Office Office | - | - | - |
| Retail Retail | - | - | - |
| Hotel Hospitality | - | - | - |
Free Portfolio Backtester
Backtest any mix of stocks or ETFs against the S&P 500. Dividends, rebalancing and recurring cashflows included. Every run also x-rays the portfolio: sector mix, hidden overlap, blended fee, real diversification.
Portfolio builder
ON
Allocation
Growth of $10,000
PortfolioS&P 500
Drawdown
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performance
Annual returns
PortfolioS&P 500
Rolling 3-year return
PortfolioS&P 500
Worst drawdowns
Efficient frontier & optimizer
Run a backtest with 2+ holdings first, then click Build frontier: 6,000 random weight combinations of your assets are tested over the same window. Every gray dot is one portfolio. Hover any dot or marker to see its exact mix, CAGR and volatility. Suggested allocations (max Sharpe, minimum volatility, risk parity, equal weight) appear below. One click applies them to the builder.
US Economic Regime Detector
Growth × inflation framework inspired by Ray Dalio's macro regime model. Classifies the current US environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.
Current regime
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
Regime classification & what to hold
The four regimes are the combinations of the growth and inflation backdrop, e.g. "growth+ · inflation−" means growth running above trend while inflation falls. Winners are the assets that have historically outperformed in that regime; losers are the ones that tend to lag.
Goldilocksgrowth+ · inflation−
WinnersEquities, credit, growth stocks
LosersGold, commodities, cash
Reflationgrowth+ · inflation+
WinnersCommodities, value, TIPS, EM
LosersLong-duration bonds
Deflationgrowth− · inflation−
WinnersTreasuries, cash, quality bonds
LosersEquities, commodities, credit
Stagflationgrowth− · inflation+
WinnersGold, TIPS, commodities, cash
LosersEquities, long bonds, credit
+ scoring methodology
Regime history (1970-present)FRED
Goldilocks Reflation Deflation Stagflation
Regime rotation backtest
Regime rotation - applies the live detector. Rebalances quarterly using last quarter's regime call, mirroring what an investor could have actually done in real time.
Perfect foresight - cheats. Rebalances using next quarter's regime call as if you already knew it (impossible in practice, shown as the theoretical ceiling the detector could reach).
S&P 500 buy & hold - the passive benchmark. 100% S&P 500 through the full period, no decisions.
Asset mix per regime
Goldilocks
Reflation
Deflation
Stagflation
Growth vs inflation signalsFRED
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Recession Dodge Strategy Alternative
An alternative detector that turns one forward-looking signal, the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), into a simple binary call: stay fully invested when financial conditions are loose, step aside to cash when they tighten. Conditions are loose about 71% of the time, so the strategy is usually invested and its whole edge comes from sitting out the few real credit-stress windows (2008, briefly 2020 and 2022) that tend to lead major drawdowns by a few weeks. Risk-on / risk-off, no four-quadrant rotation.
In the market
- OR -
Hold cash
Current Recession Dodge call
Detecting…
Reading the latest NFCI to decide: stay invested or hold cash.
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+ scoring methodology
Series: NFCI · S&P 500 total return · 3-month T-bill (cash). Backtest window starts when NFCI begins (≈ 1971). Binary risk-on / risk-off: 100% S&P when NFCI ≤ 0, 100% cash when NFCI > 0, rebalanced quarterly on the prior quarter's reading.
Global Economic Calendar
The major releases outside the US: euro-area CPI and GDP, ECB, BoE and BoJ decisions, UK CPI, China PMI and GDP. Times in ET, with impact ratings. Central-bank dates follow each bank’s published schedule.
Building calendar…
Schedule: each release's standard pattern (euro-area flash CPI at month-end, UK CPI mid-month, China PMI on the month's last day) plus the published 2026 meeting calendars of the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Previous prints and actuals: live from each region's official statistical source, the ECB Data Portal (euro-area and German inflation, euro-area unemployment and GDP), the UK Office for National Statistics (UK CPI, unemployment and retail sales) and FRED (ECB deposit rate). A value appears only once the source has published the event's own reference period, so a release the source hasn't posted yet shows '-' rather than an older number. Releases whose official sources publish too slowly for a live feed show schedule only. Times in ET: overnight Asian releases appear the ET evening before their local morning.
US Economic Calendar
Every major US release: payrolls, CPI, PCE, FOMC, GDP, ISM, jobless claims and more. Times in ET, impact ratings, and the prior print live from FRED. Dates are recurring estimates.
Building calendar…
Schedule: each indicator's standard release pattern (CPI mid-month, jobs report the first Friday, FOMC eight times a year). Previous prints and actuals: live from FRED. Times in ET.
Recession Risk Calculator
Odds of a US recession (the kind the NBER declares) in the next 12 months. Built from 7 leading indicators, each showing its real hit rate. For market-drawdown risk, see Crash Risk.
US economic recession probability
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LowModerateHigh
Indicator scorecard
Yield curve inversion historyFRED
Shaded red regions show when the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread went negative (inverted). Every one of those windows since 1969 preceded a recession, except the 2022-24 period which has so far only produced slowing growth.
Crash Risk Calculator
Chance of a big market drawdown, from 6 strictly-leading indicators. Each shows the hit rate it actually earned. For economic-recession risk, see Recession Risk.
US drawdown probability
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CheapFairBubble
Reading live valuation metrics against their 30-year history…
Indicator scorecard
Composite probability history
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Composite drawdown probability over time, recomputed each month from the same threshold table the live gauge uses. Spikes above 60% lined up with 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007-08, 2020, 2022 and 2025-26; dips below 25% lined up with 1982 and 2009. Months Shiller's dataset hasn't finalized yet use the latest published monthly CAPE / P/E / dividend-yield readings, so the newest data points match the freshest available values.
Bubble meter
A different question from the drawdown gauge above: not "will the market fall?" but "does today look like a bubble?" Inspired by Ray Dalio's six classic bubble questions: are prices high relative to traditional measures, are prices counting on unsustainable growth, are new buyers flooding in, is sentiment broadly bullish, are purchases being financed with leverage, and is corporate investment running at boom levels. Each gauge is scored 0-100 against its own full history and the dial averages the six. Past bubble peaks (1929, 2000, 2021) pushed most gauges into their top deciles; washed-out bottoms (1982, 2009) sat near the floor. Click any gauge for what it measures and how.
Bubbliness
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DepressedFairBubble
Scoring the six bubble questions against their full history…
Bubble score history
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The six bubble questions asked of every past month, each scored the way the dial above scores today and averaged over the gauges with a reading at the time.
Gauges enter the average as their data begins: the CAPE and the growth gap from the 1870s (Shiller), margin debt and business investment from the late 1940s (Federal Reserve Z.1, BEA via FRED), the VIX over the last ten years and trading turnover over the last three. Each month’s score is the plain average of the gauges available then; the rightmost point is the live dial.
Compound Interest
Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.
Inputs
$
$
%
yrs
$
Results
Total interest earned
$0
Total contributed
$0
Interest % of total
0%
Final value
$0
Growth chart
Annual contribution Cumulative contributions Cumulative interest Annual interest
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Annual Contribution | Cumulative Contributions | Cumulative Interest | Annual Interest | Balance |
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Congressional Trading
A live feed of stock-trade disclosures from the US Senate and House. Plus live profiles of the most-watched traders: their latest filings and most-traded tickers.
Latest disclosed trades
| Traded | Filed | Member | Party | Chamber | Ticker | Name | Type | Amount |
|---|
Most-watched congressional traders
Earnings & IPO Calendar
The week ahead for US equities. Who reports earnings, with consensus EPS, and which IPOs are coming. Spot volatility events before they hit your holdings.
Upcoming earningsNext 14 days
| Date | Symbol | Company | When | EPS est. | Revenue est. |
|---|
Upcoming IPOsNext 30 days
| Date | Symbol | Company | Exchange | Price | Shares |
|---|
Live earnings-consensus and IPO-schedule data. Estimates and IPO terms are revised often and can be withdrawn, so confirm against the company's filings before trading. "When" is Pre-mkt (before the open), After close, or Midday.
Rental Property Analyzer
Institutional-style underwriting for a single rental. Cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR and IRR, plus a full value-add story. Year-by-year cash flows included.
Inputs
Core property assumptionsSteady-state
FinancingDebt & equity
Value-add assumptionsRenovation & capex
The renovation/stabilization ramp and capital spend. Leave at defaults (or set current = renovated = stabilized rent and capex to 0) for a straightforward buy-and-hold.
Results
Cap rate
0%
Cash-on-cash
0%
Monthly cash flow
$0
IRR (hold period)
0%
Cash flow & equity over time Per year
Year-by-year projection
| Year | Rent | Op. exp. | NOI | Debt svc | Cash flow | Property value | Loan balance | Equity |
|---|
IRR uses the exit-cap assumption to mark the property at sale (NOI at exit ÷ exit cap), net of selling costs and remaining loan balance. Renovation period = months with no rent and full capex burn; stabilization period = months with current-rent inflow ramping toward stabilized rent. Excludes income taxes, depreciation recapture and 1031 exchanges.
Mortgage Calculator
Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.
Inputs
Loan inputs
$
%
Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
%
$
%/yr
Results
Monthly debt service
$0
Total interest
$0
Total paid
$0
all payments + down
Loan-to-value
0%
Amortization chart
15-year vs 30-year comparison
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization schedule
| Year | Month | Payment | Principal | Interest | Balance | Home equity | Home value | Unreal. appr. | Total equity |
|---|
Buy vs Rent Property Calculator
Buy a home, or rent the same place and invest the difference? Enter one property’s real numbers. See who comes out ahead, year by year.
Inputs
Personal assumptionsSame for both Sally and Jack
$
$/mo
yrs
%
Sally's home purchase
$
%
%
yrs
%
$/mo
$/mo
$/mo
%/yr
%
%
%/yr
$0
Jack's rental life
$
%
Results
Breakeven year
-
When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Jack's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Advantage
-
At end of time horizon
Net worth over time
Monthly cost comparison
Year-by-year comparison
| Year | Sally cost/yr | Jack cost/yr | Sally's principal pay down | Sally's appreciation | Sally's investments | Sally total NW | Jack total NW | Who wins |
|---|
Buy vs Lease Car Calculator
Donald pays cash, Frank finances, Nancy rolls leases: identical income, savings and hold period. Each invests whatever is left after car costs. Ending net worth = portfolio + car equity.
Inputs
Personal assumptionsSame for Donald, Frank, and Nancy
$
$/mo
yrs
%
%
%
24%
VehicleSame car for both scenarios
$
%
mi
$/mo
%/yr
$0
Tax incentives & business use
%
Pick an EV status or LLC category to see tax savings applied to the winner.
Donald buys (cash)
$/yr
$0
Frank finances
%
%
mo
$/yr
$0/mo
Nancy leases
$/mo
mo
$
$
$
/yr
$/mi
$700/mo
Results
Donald total / mo
$0
insurance + maintenance only (paid cash)
Frank total / mo
$0
loan + insurance + maintenance
Nancy total / mo
$0
lease + insurance + fees
Donald (buy cash)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Frank (finance)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Nancy (lease)
$0
Invested portfolio only
Best scenario
-
Who wins, by how much
Net worth over time
Cumulative out-of-pocket cost
Year-by-year breakdown
| Year | Donald net worth | Frank net worth | Nancy net worth | Donald spent | Frank spent | Nancy spent |
|---|
FIRE Calculator and Early Retirement Planner
When can you reach financial independence? Enter what you have, what you save, and what you’ll spend. You get your FIRE year on the 4% rule, plus Coast FIRE, all in today’s dollars.
FIRE = a portfolio big enough to cover your living costs for good. Your target is 25× your annual spending (the 4% rule). The tabs above pressure-test it.
Inputs
FIRE style shortcuts, or just type your own spending below
yrs
$
$
$
%
%
Results
Your FI number
$0
Years to FI
-
FI age
-
Coast FIRE number
$0
Progress to your FI number
$0
Path to financial independenceFI number
Contributions Total balance (green above blue = growth) FI number (target)
Year-by-year projection
| Age | Year | Contributed (yr) | Growth (yr) | Balance | % to FI |
|---|
All figures are in today's dollars, so use a real (after-inflation) return: the long-run real return of a 100% stock portfolio has been ~7%, a 60/40 ~5%. The 4% rule (25× spending) comes from the Trinity study and assumes a ~30-year retirement; longer retirements or early retirement argue for 3.25-3.5%. Coast FIRE assumes a target retirement age of 65 and no further contributions. Excludes Social Security, pensions and taxes on withdrawals.
One average return hides the risk. This runs 1,000 randomized market paths through your plan. You see the full fan of outcomes, and the odds your money lasts.
Inputs
$
$
yrs
$
yrs
%
%
1,000 paths, drawn from a normal return each year.
Results
Chance money lasts
-
Median at retirement
$0
Median at end
$0
Unlucky case (10th %)
$0
Fan of outcomestoday's dollars
10th-90th percentile 25th-75th percentile Median path
Each of 1,000 paths draws an independent annual return from a normal distribution with your mean and volatility, compounding the balance while adding contributions before retirement and subtracting spending after. "Chance money lasts" is the fraction of paths that never hit zero during retirement. Real markets have fat tails, autocorrelation and sequence risk that a normal distribution understates, so treat this as a guide, not a guarantee. Results are seeded so they're stable as you adjust inputs.
A DRIP reinvests every dividend into more shares automatically. Those shares pay dividends too, compounding for decades. Taxable accounts pay tax each year; an IRA / 401(k) compounds untouched.
Inputs
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Account type
Results
Value (reinvested)
$0
Total dividends
$0
Reinvesting adds
$0
Lost to tax drag
$0
Reinvest vs take the cash
Dividends reinvested Dividends taken as cash
Annual dividend income
The income snowball: dividends paid each year as your reinvested share count grows.
Models a starting price of $100/share scaled to your investment. Each year, dividends are paid on shares held (growing at the dividend-growth rate), taxed if the account is taxable, and the after-tax amount buys more shares at the year-end price. The cash path holds shares constant and accumulates after-tax dividends without reinvesting. Tax drag is the value a taxable account loses versus the same holding in a tax-advantaged account. Excludes share-price volatility, fees and dividend cuts; assumes dividends stay qualified.
House Affordability Calculator
How much house can you actually afford? Lenders cap housing near 28% of gross income and total debt near 36%. Enter income and debts. We solve for the max price.
Inputs
Lending standard
$
$
$
%
yrs
%
%
$/mo
Results
Max home price
$0
Loan amount
$0
Monthly payment
$0
Down payment
0%
Monthly payment breakdown
Affordable price vs mortgage rate
How your max home price shrinks as rates rise. The dot marks your current rate.
Front-end ratio caps housing cost (principal, interest, tax, insurance, HOA, PMI) at a share of gross income; back-end ratio caps housing plus all other debt. The binding constraint sets your price. PMI of 0.5%/yr is added automatically when the down payment is under 20%. This estimates borrowing capacity, not a recommendation. Many buyers choose to spend well below the max. Excludes maintenance, utilities and closing costs.
Debt Payoff Planner
List your debts and your monthly budget. Get a concrete plan: what to pay, to which debt, starting when. Uses the avalanche method, the mathematically cheapest way out.
Inputs
Your monthly budget
$
$
$
Your debts
Debt nameBalanceAPR %Min /mo
Results
Total debt
$0
Debt-free in
-
Total interest
$0
Saves vs minimums
$0
Balance over time
Your plan Minimums only
Your payoff plan: what to pay, and when
Each month, every debt accrues interest at APR÷12, minimum payments are made on all active debts, and your budget surplus (take-home income minus essentials, minus the flexible spending you keep, minus all minimums) goes to the highest-APR debt, plus the minimums freed up by already-cleared debts. Attacking the highest rate first is always the cheapest path out of debt. If a debt's minimum doesn't cover its monthly interest, it will never amortize. The plan will flag it.
Roth vs Traditional IRA / 401(k)
One question decides this: pay tax now, or pay tax later? This tool puts the same dollars into each and shows what you actually keep.
ROTH · tax now, never again
−Paycheck is taxed first: you contribute after-tax dollars
↓
◈Grows tax-free for decades: no tax on dividends or gains, ever
↓
✓Withdraw 100% tax-free in retirement (59½+)
TRADITIONAL · tax later
✓Contribute pre-tax: the contribution is deducted, cutting this year's tax bill
↓
◈Grows tax-deferred: nothing taxed while it compounds
↓
−Every withdrawal is taxed as ordinary income in retirement
Rule of thumb Expect a higher tax rate in retirement → Roth wins · expect lower → Traditional wins · same rate → mathematically a tie
IRA limit $7,000/yr 401(k) limit $23,500/yr What can they hold?
Inputs
$
yrs
yrs
%
%
%
Results
Roth (after tax)
$0
Traditional (after tax)
$0
Winner
-
Total contributed
$0
After-tax value in retirement
Roth advantage vs your retirement tax rate
The higher your retirement tax rate, the more Roth's tax-free withdrawals are worth versus Traditional. The dot marks your assumption.
Both paths contribute the same dollar amount each year from your current age to your retirement age. Roth is funded with after-tax dollars and withdrawn tax-free; Traditional is contributed pre-tax (so it costs less take-home today), grows tax-deferred, and is taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal. We show the actual after-tax balance each leaves you at retirement. No hypothetical side account. Ignores income limits, employer match, required minimum distributions, state taxes and future tax-law changes. An employer match (free money) makes capturing the 401(k) match worth it regardless of which type you choose.
Net Worth Tracker
Add what you own, subtract what you owe. Custom items welcome. See how you rank against US households and every adult on Earth. Overall, and for your age group.
Inputs
Assets: what you own$0
Liabilities: what you owe$0
Results
Net worth
$0
Total assets
$0
Total liabilities
$0
US percentile
-
Asset composition
Where you stand
Future net worth projection10-year
Type an expected percentage return for each asset, year by year (negative is fine), or set one number for everything with "Apply to all". Each asset compounds on its own, today's liabilities are subtracted, and each year's savings (income minus expenses) is added to your investments.
%
$
$
Ending balance by year and asset
Projected net worth in 10 years
$0
US household net worth percentiles and age-group medians from the Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (released October 2023; figures via DQYDJ). Net worth = assets minus liabilities. Percentile is interpolated from the published distribution and is an estimate. Median US household net worth in 2022 was about $192,000; the top 10% started near $1.9M and the top 1% near $13.7M. Global figures: UBS Global Wealth Report 2023 (per adult, year-end 2022): global median wealth ~$8,654, top 10% from ~$137,000, top 1% from ~$1.08M. US net worth is per household and global per adult, so the two aren't strictly comparable.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Estimator
Selling a loser banks a capital loss and saves tax now. But it lowers your cost basis, so much of the saving is deferred, not erased. This estimates the honest, net value.
Inputs
$
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Results
Tax saved this year
$0
Loss carried forward
$0
Net benefit (today's $)
$0
Value kept per $ loss
0%
Where your loss goes, and what you actually keep
The economics, in today's dollars
Net benefit vs how long you defer
The longer until you sell, the more the deferred tax shrinks in present value. The dot marks your horizon.
30-day wash-sale rule
Rebuy a similar asset, not a substantially identical one, within 30 days, or the loss is disallowed.
Deferral, not free money
Your basis drops by the harvested loss, so a bigger gain is taxed when you eventually sell.
Where the real value is
Time value of investing the up-front saving, plus offsetting high-rate income now vs low-rate gains later.
Estimate only
Ignores AMT, net investment income tax and the long/short-term split within gains; assumes the replacement recovers. Not tax advice.
Lump Sum vs Dollar-Cost Averaging
Got a windfall? Markets rise more often than they fall, so investing it all at once usually wins. Here’s the backtest across every starting point since 1928.
Inputs
$
Results
Lump sum won
0%
Avg lump advantage
0%
DCA won
0%
DCA's best win
-
Lump sum vs DCA, by starting year
Lump sum ended ahead DCA ended ahead. Each bar is how much lump sum beat (or trailed) DCA for that start year.
Backtest uses annual S&P 500 total returns (Damodaran/NYU), 1928-2025. "Lump sum" invests the whole amount at the start of year one; "DCA" invests an equal slice at the start of each year over the spread, with uninvested cash assumed to earn nothing. Both are valued at the end of the spread. Because stocks rise in about two-thirds of years, lump sum usually wins. Dollar-cost averaging mainly helps when you'd have bought right before a crash, and its real value is behavioral (it's easier to stomach). The classic Vanguard study finds lump sum wins ~68% of rolling 12-month periods; spreading over more years widens the lump-sum edge.
Dividend Calculator & Income Calendar
Turn your portfolio into a paycheck schedule. Enter your dividend stocks, ETFs and Treasuries with amounts held. See monthly income, blended yield, and 20 years of compounding.
Your holdings
Add a Treasury / bond
Factor Regression
A few academic “factors” explain most of what any fund does. Regress any US ticker on them: market, size, value, profitability, investment, momentum. See what you really own, and whether any alpha is left.
Portfolio X-Ray
The X-Ray now lives inside the Portfolio Backtester. One tool backtests your mix and looks inside it. Sector exposure, overlap, blended fee, stress test, correlations.
Taking you there... if nothing happens, open the Portfolio Backtester.
Stock Market Heatmap
A live heat map of the largest US companies: tile size is market cap, color is today’s move. Green up, red down. Click any tile for its full chart. Below the map, every sector’s total return by window.
US large caps · today
Tile size = market cap · color = % change vs previous close · auto-refreshes every 5 minutes while you're on this page · universe = the ~160 largest US stocks, grouped by sector.
Sector rotation: total return by window
All 11 GICS sectors across time windows, color-coded so leadership and laggards jump out: green = outperforming, red = underperforming.
Daily dividend-adjusted closes (total return) of the SPDR sector ETFs against SPY; the table re-pulls on its own every five minutes while the page is open.
Yield Curve Chart and Inversion History
The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Every inversion is visible. Short above long has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.
Showing
-
2s10s spread
-
10y-3m spread
-
Shape
-
Drag to scrub · 1976 → today
The curve on this date
2s10s spread through history
Below zero (shaded red) = inverted. The marker tracks the date shown at left.
Monthly constant-maturity US Treasury yields from FRED (TB3MS, GS1, GS2, GS5, GS10, GS30), 1976-present, with the final frame rebuilt from the daily series (DGS3MO, DGS1, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30) so the curve ends on the latest close. The 30-year series has a gap from 2002-2006 when the bond was discontinued. An inverted curve (2s10s or 10y-3m below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6-18 months, though timing varies. Yields are nominal.
Foreign Exchange
Live currency conversion, historical charts for major pairs, and cross rates.
ConverterLive rates
Result
-- --
Fetching rates...
USD/EUR1 year
-
Dollar index (DXY) FRED
Spot
--
5Y change
--
Basket composition
| Currency | Weight |
|---|---|
| EUR · Euro | 57.6% |
| JPY · Japanese yen | 13.6% |
| GBP · British pound | 11.9% |
| CAD · Canadian dollar | 9.1% |
| SEK · Swedish krona | 4.2% |
| CHF · Swiss franc | 3.6% |
A weaker dollar tends to lift gold, EM equities, commodities, and US large-cap earnings from foreign sales. A stronger dollar does the opposite.
EUR / USDFRED
-
US dollars per 1 euro (updated daily)
USD / JPYFRED
-
Japanese yen per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
GBP / USDFRED
-
US dollars per 1 British pound (updated daily)
USD / CNYFRED
-
Chinese yuan per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
Top 10 weekly appreciating vs USD Weekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
| Currency | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||
Top 10 weekly depreciating vs USD Weekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
| Currency | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||||
Cross rates vs USD
| Currency | Rate (per 1 USD) | Inverse (USD per 1) |
|---|
Stock Screener
Filter the largest US stocks by valuation, profitability, growth, dividend, leverage, and risk.
Filters
Style presets Famous investors
Top Stocks
Compare the top 25 US stocks (by total return since inception, across major sectors) on risk and return metrics.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
ETF Analyzer
Type any ETF ticker for a one-screen breakdown. Holdings and weights, performance vs a benchmark you pick, fees vs peers, leverage and risk. Everything computed live.
Enter an ETF ticker above, or tap one of the popular picks, to analyze it.
Computed live from market price history, fund profiles and holdings data. Returns, volatility, max drawdown and Sharpe are computed from weekly dividend-adjusted history: the same series and method behind the Equities page and the ETF, stock and REIT pickers, so the same fund shows the same number everywhere; some fields (expense ratio, holdings, issuer) only show when the feed provides them, with a curated fallback for popular funds. Fees vs peers compares the expense ratio, when the fund discloses one, to a representative category average. The risk read is an indicative, rules-based summary, not advice. Verify before investing.
Technical Monitor
A live technical scan of the 100 largest US stocks and ETFs. Each is scored on 12 classic signals from a year of daily prices. Strong consensus floats tickers into the buy and sell lists.
Universe: the 100 largest US-listed stocks and ETFs by market cap / fund assets (as of July 2026). Prices are live: one year of daily bars per ticker. Signals: price vs SMA 10/20/50/100/200, the 50/200-day cross, RSI(14), stochastic %K(14,3), CCI(20), Williams %R(14), MACD(12,26,9) vs its signal line, and 10-day rate of change. Oscillators need threshold AND direction to fire: oversold and turning up is a buy, overbought and turning down is a sell; overbought alone in a steady uptrend stays neutral. The composite rating averages buy(+1)/neutral(0)/sell(-1) across all 12: Strong buy at +0.5 and above, Strong sell at -0.5 and below (standard screener bands). Technical signals describe recent price action only. They say nothing about valuation or fundamentals and are not investment advice.
Stock Analyzer
Type any US stock ticker for a full research report. DCF, comps, ratios, management, risks, and a conviction price target.
Top Bonds
The top 25 bond and income products, compared on yield, risk and tax efficiency. Ranked by total return since inception within each category. Treasuries, munis, corporates, REITs and dividend payers.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Yields are live. Risk metrics are from published fund data.
Top REITs
Compare the top 25 REITs and REIT ETFs (by total return since inception) on risk and return.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Best ETFs, Compared
Compare the top ETFs across 10 categories, ranked by long-run CAGR (net of fees), with filters for size, age, and expense ratio.
Factor Loading…
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Academic Study Analyzer
Landmark finance studies explained in plain English. What each found, how strong the evidence is, and the catch. Search the library and open any study for the full breakdown.
Study library-
Plain-English summaries are editorial interpretations written for learning, not a substitute for the original papers. Follow each link to read the source. Citation counts are approximate (Google Scholar) and influence levels are editorial.
Alpha Room
My personal, timestamped calls on generating alpha. Each idea carries a trade, a time horizon, and a return tracked live from the day of the call.
Free preview Membership coming soon Read more ▾
Every tool on this site is free, forever. They let you do your own research and reach your own conclusions, and that will never change.
The Alpha Room is different. It’s my personal, specific calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. It’s free for now, but it will move behind a yearly membership soon. Every call below is timestamped, carries a trade and a time horizon, and is tracked in an honest rolling scorecard, so you can see exactly how each idea has done since I called it.
The Alpha Room is different. It’s my personal, specific calls on what I’d actually do to generate alpha and make more money. It’s free for now, but it will move behind a yearly membership soon. Every call below is timestamped, carries a trade and a time horizon, and is tracked in an honest rolling scorecard, so you can see exactly how each idea has done since I called it.
Current CallsWhat I’d own
The names I’d actually buy right now: core conviction holds plus a few tactical momentum rides. Each return is tracked live from the day I called it.
Track record-
Current TipsCash & defense
What to do with the money you’re not putting to work, and how to protect the downside if you’d rather play defense.
Rolling history of callsPermanent ledger · newest first
Every call ever made, open or closed, with how it’s done since the timestamp. This is an append-only record: calls are never edited or removed, and the misses stay too.
Not investment advice. The Alpha Room is one person’s opinion, shared for education and discussion. Returns are tracked from public market data (price return since the call date, before dividends), not actual fills, and past calls do not predict future results. Do your own research; positions and prices change. Nothing here is advice personalized to you.
Famous Investors & Their Portfolios
The 28 most influential investors in history. What each believed, and what they’d likely do today. Each card links to the closest backtestable portfolio.
The legends
Sort
28 investors Click any card for the full profile: philosophy, what they’d likely be doing right now, and the closest matching portfolio. For what today’s big managers are actually filing, see Manager Moves.
Big Trades
What the most-watched money managers are doing, and how the biggest hedge funds have actually performed. Live 13F and 13D/G filings from SEC EDGAR with each manager’s latest buys and sells, a read on their posture, and the track records of the most famous funds against the S&P 500.
Latest SEC filings
What these filings mean
| Filed | Trades as of | Manager | Form | What it is |
|---|
What they bought and sold last quarter
How this is measured
| Manager | Snapshot | Bought | Sold |
|---|
Current posture, manager by managerCurated
The publicly-known posture and most recent notable moves of today’s biggest active investors, compiled from their filings, shareholder letters and interviews.
Filings load live from SEC EDGAR (each manager’s public submissions feed) and link to the original documents; 13F positions are disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end, so even "live" filings describe last quarter’s book. Bought / Sold compares the two most recent quarterly snapshots (equity positions only), so it shows net quarter-over-quarter changes: a position bought and sold within the same quarter never appears. Posture cards are editorial summaries of public statements, not filings data. Not investment advice.
Hedge fund track records: funds with disclosed returns
Since-inception annualized return vs S&P 500vs ~10.5%/yr
Legendary & now-private fundsReference
These managers are too secretive, closed, or converted to family offices to publish reliable year-by-year returns. Shown as historical profiles, not in the table above.
About these numbers. Hedge funds aren't required to disclose returns, so everything here except Pershing Square (publicly listed, audited NAV) is compiled from press reporting: LCH Investments annual manager rankings (via the Financial Times / Institutional Investor), Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Hedgeweek, fund investor letters, and Gregory Zuckerman's The Man Who Solved the Market for Renaissance. AUM and returns are point-in-time, approximate and may be revised. Trailing periods (1Y to 20Y) are annualized through calendar 2025, not live, so a brokerage quote will differ: Pershing Square rows are fund NAV performance, while the listed shares (PSH / PSHZF) trade daily at a discount to NAV and reflect the current year's moves. "n/d" = not disclosed; "Beats S&P?" compares since-inception annualized return to the S&P 500's long-run ~10.5%/yr total return. Not investment advice.
Asset Correlations Updated yearly
How assets move together, in normal times and in crashes. Averages for ~2010-2025, crash windows, and a longest-term matrix. Or build your own with any tickers and any window.
Build your own correlation matrix
Add 2-8 tickers (any stock, ETF or crypto, plus US housing from the Case-Shiller index), pick the return interval and lookback, and the matrix computes from live price history.
Pearson correlation of overlapping periodic returns (dividend-adjusted closes; "US housing" uses the monthly Case-Shiller national index from FRED, so adding it forces monthly returns). Short windows and few observations make correlations noisy. The observation count is shown so you can judge. Daily data reaches back ~10 years; weekly and monthly go back decades.
Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrix
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs 30-49 yrs 10-29 yrs <10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Database sources + expand
The AI Race
Country and company scorecards on the metrics that define the AI race: model quality, model velocity, training compute, investment, chips, patents, talent, and data-center power.
Country scorecard: share of globalStanford HAI · WIPO · Synergy
Each country's share of the global total on six measurable AI-race metrics. Darker bar = bigger share.
| Country | Private $ | Models | Talent | Patents | DC capacity | DC power |
|---|
Data-center power capacitySynergy '24
Top countries by total data-center capacity (GW). Compute = power; these are the physical plants where AI gets built.
Data-center electricity useIEA '24
Annual TWh consumed by data centers. 2026 projections shown as lighter bars.
Private AI investment (cumulative 2013-2024)Stanford HAI '25
Notable AI models released (2025)Stanford HAI '26
Top AI labs by training computeEpoch AI '26
Flagship-model training compute, log scale. Bigger = more compute thrown at the largest public model.
| Lab | Country | Flagship model | Training FLOPs | Log10(FLOPs) |
|---|
Best AI models by benchmark intelligenceArtificial Analysis '26
Frontier models ranked by composite benchmark score. Bar color = country of origin lab.
| # | Model | Lab | Country | Intelligence index |
|---|
Notable AI models released per year, globalEpoch AI '25
Top-tier AI talent concentrationMacroPolo '23
AI patent share (WIPO 2024)WIPO '24
Data sources + expand
Model Portfolios, Backtested
Famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. Data is approximate and historical. Past performance is not a guarantee.
Portfolios
0
Highest CAGR
-
Best Sharpe
-
Shallowest DD
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Comparison table
| Portfolio | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe | Best year | Worst year | Stocks % |
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Card stats are full-history reference values (US data, 1972-2025, annual rebalancing) from published long-run asset-class returns; click any card to recompute live from its ETFs over their actual overlap. Sharpe ratios assume Rf ≈ 3-month T-bill (~4% long-run avg); ±0.05 vs source is normal due to differing Rf and rebalance assumptions. Excludes taxes and transaction costs.
Articles
Original research and analysis by Luis Nunez. Also available on Substack for email delivery.
Gold as a Crisis Asset
War, inflation, Fed cycles. Since 1971.
Article12 min
Full interactive articleWartime data, inflation onset, Fed cycles, CAGR, charts
Asset Class Returns by Decade Updated yearly
Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.
negativestrong positive
Total returns heatmap
| Decade | Stocks | Cash | Gov Bonds | Corp Bonds | Housing | REITs | Gold | Inflation |
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Data sources + expand
Financial Dictionary
Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Click any cross-referenced term inside a definition to jump straight to it.
Return Drivers
The S&P 500 moved this year, but why? Gains can only come from earnings, the P/E multiple, buybacks, and currency. This page splits the move into those pieces.
SPX YTD
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refreshed daily
Earnings contribution
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Mag-7 share of growth
P/E multiple
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trailing P/E change
Top-10 concentration
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top 10 companies · % of S&P 500
Driver decomposition · return contribution Stacked attribution
The rally is mostly multiple expansion + Mag-7 earnings, with a drag from a stronger dollar. The five slices below add up to the index’s YTD price return. Tap any one to see how it’s calculated.
The six forces in play
Mag-7 contribution to SPX returnYTD
Computed at load time from live S&P 500, Mag-7 and dollar-index closes plus dated published anchors: trailing P/E 29.60 (Jan 1, 2026), 27.81 (Jul 1, 2025, the start anchor for the T12 view) and 32.60 (Jul 10, 2026) from published S&P index data; Mag-7 EPS share, foreign-revenue share and forward P/E context from FactSet Earnings Insight (Jul 2, 2026); buyback pace from S&P Dow Jones Indices; start-of-2026 index weights as of Dec 31, 2025; top-10 concentration from State Street SPY daily holdings (Jul 10, 2026). Anchors update as each new quarterly report is published.
Capital Flows
Where the money is moving: US-listed ETF flows by asset class, region and sector, plus income, thematic and alt channels. Data as of -.
Total ETF net flows YTD
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US-listed, all asset classes
Latest month
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net flows, most recent month
Where it’s going
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largest inflow
Where it’s leaving
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largest outflow
Fastest mover
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biggest momentum shift
Asset class flows · month & YTD-
US sector flows · month & YTD-
Equity flows by geography-
Income, thematic & alt flowsMixed sources
Data sources + expand
Flow figures are compiled from dated monthly fund-flow reports: State Street Investment Management's "US-Listed ETF Flash Flows" (Bloomberg data), the World Gold Council and an independent daily crypto-ETF flow tracker, as of the date shown on each card. The sector-rotation table is live from the SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLY, XLP, XLI, XLB, XLU, XLRE, XLC) versus SPY for the S&P 500: every column is a total return (computed from ten years of daily dividend-adjusted closes), with trailing windows from 1 day to 6 months, year-to-date, and cumulative 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. "--" means the fund is younger than the window (XLRE launched in 2015, XLC in 2018). Sectors beating SPY are gaining leadership. The table re-pulls itself every few minutes; market data may be briefly delayed.
Strategy Scorecard
Side-by-side performance of the most-discussed long-term portfolio strategies, computed live from each one’s ETF proxies on the same dates and the same total-return basis as the Equities page and the pickers, so the numbers are actually comparable.
10Y winner
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highest CAGR
Best Sharpe
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risk-adjusted leader
Smallest drawdown
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most defensive
YTD leader
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current momentum
Strategy scoreboard
| Strategy | YTD | 1Y | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 15Y CAGR | 20Y CAGR | Vol | Max DD | Sharpe |
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All figures are TOTAL returns (dividends reinvested), computed live from dividend-adjusted weekly prices of each strategy’s ETF proxies: the same series and method behind the Equities page and the ETF, stock and REIT pickers, so the same fund shows the same number everywhere. Multi-asset strategies are constant-mix baskets at their standard sleeve weights (rebalanced weekly) for the trailing windows, volatility, drawdown and Sharpe; YTD rebalances once a year, on Dec 31. Volatility, drawdown and Sharpe cover each strategy’s full available history, from its youngest sleeve’s launch. “--” means not enough history for that window. Sleeves: SPX = SPY, Buffett = 90 SPY / 10 SHY, 3-fund = equal thirds VTI / VXUS / BND, 60/40 = SPY / AGG, Golden Butterfly = 20 each SPY / IJS / TLT / SHY / GLD, All Weather = 30 SPY / 40 TLT / 15 IEF / 7.5 GLD / 7.5 DBC, Permanent = 25 each SPY / TLT / GLD / BIL, risk parity = RPAR, Dragon = 24 SPY / 18 TLT / 19 GLD / 18 KMLM / 21 TAIL, dividend growth = VIG, trend following = KMLM, cash = BIL; factor and sector rows are the single ETF named in the row. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Calendar-year heatmapAnnual
Calendar-year TOTAL returns (dividends included) for every strategy on the scoreboard, computed live from each one’s ETF proxies using dividend-adjusted month-end prices, rebalanced annually on Dec 31. Years before a proxy’s launch show as “--”. ETF proxies track each strategy’s intent closely but are approximations of the published portfolios.
About this site
Arsenal.finance is an open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Everything is meticulously built from scratch.
Why
To give retail investors institutional-grade tools without the institutional price tag, and help them make substantially smarter financial decisions in the process.
About me, Luis Nunez
Finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.
Investment philosophy
Most people should own the market and skip the stock picking, market timing, and price predictions. The data backs this up. Unless you work inside a company, you have no real insight into what's happening there. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good couple of years before ending up roughly where they started. Beating the market over a long horizon is rare enough to qualify as a statistical anomaly.
Rare is not impossible however. And picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms is genuinely fun, part of why we're here in the first place. So I advocate for a hybrid approach: split your portfolio disproportionately in two. A core portfolio that holds the majority of your money and lets you sleep at night, and a betting portfolio that lets you age without the regret of missing the trade you were sure about.
Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous country, it shouldn't be a surprise that I'm more a fan of Smith, Friedman and Hayek than Keynes. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.
I also believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually nothing. That's prosperity at scale.
Support
I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.
Contact
Collaborate, hire, or argue about cap rates.
My portfolio
55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. That mix is 80% of my portfolio; the other 20% is my own tactical calls. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.