FOMC dot plot
MacroDefinition
Quarterly Fed publication showing each FOMC participant's projection of where the federal funds rate will be at year-end of the current year, the next two years, and the long run.
The MEDIAN dot is treated as the Fed's "guidance" by markets. Dots have historically been wrong by 100+ bps over 2-year horizons. Markets often diverge meaningfully from the dots — leading to mispricings that mean-revert to one another.
The MEDIAN dot is treated as the Fed's "guidance" by markets. Dots have historically been wrong by 100+ bps over 2-year horizons. Markets often diverge meaningfully from the dots — leading to mispricings that mean-revert to one another.
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