Soft landing

When a central bank successfully cools an overheating economy (high inflation, hot labor market) without triggering a recession. Rare in modern US history — only 1965-66, 1984, 1995-96 are clearly cited as full soft landings. The 2022-2024 Fed cycle is being assessed as a possible fourth.

Mechanism: rate hikes slow demand enough to bring inflation down, but not so much that unemployment spikes meaningfully. Requires luck, immigration tailwinds, or a productivity boom to offset demand-destroying tightening.