Sahm Rule
MacroDefinition
A real-time recession signal: the 3-month average of US unemployment rate has risen 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low. Created by Fed economist Claudia Sahm. Has correctly flagged every US recession since 1960 in real time.
Triggered in August 2024, briefly raising fears of a 2024-2025 US recession that didn't materialize. The first false signal in 60+ years (or recession was averted by a soft landing — debate continues).
Triggered in August 2024, briefly raising fears of a 2024-2025 US recession that didn't materialize. The first false signal in 60+ years (or recession was averted by a soft landing — debate continues).
Related tool
Open the recession tool on Arsenal.finance →