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Equities
Real-time equity index prices and CAGR across major regions. Auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.
Global equities indexesLive
Index
Price
1D %
CAGR (price only)
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
United States
SPX S&P 500
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NDX Nasdaq 100
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DJI Dow Jones Industrial
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RUT Russell 2000 (small cap)
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Global
ACWI MSCI All-Country
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VT Vanguard Total World
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Europe
VGK FTSE Europe
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UKX UK FTSE 100
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DAX Germany DAX
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CAC France CAC 40
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Asia / Pacific
EWJ Japan Nikkei 225
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MCHI China MSCI
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EWY South Korea KOSPI
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EWH Hong Kong Hang Seng
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EWA Australia ASX 200
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Emerging Markets
EEM MSCI Emerging Markets
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INDA India Sensex (NIFTY 50)
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EWZ Brazil Bovespa
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EWT Taiwan TAIEX
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Fixed Income (Markets)
US Treasury benchmark, investment-grade and high-yield corporate spreads, emerging-market debt, and 13 sovereign 10Y yields with real-yield adjustments.
Bond market yieldsFRED
ICE BofA indices, effective yield
Class
Yield
Spread vs 10Y
UST 10Y US Treasury benchmark
-
-
TIPS 10Y real yield (inflation-adj)
-
real
AAA AAA corporate
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-
AA AA corporate
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A A corporate
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BBB BBB corporate
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BB BB high yield
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B B high yield
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-
CCC CCC & below (junk)
-
-
EM Emerging markets
-
-
Sovereign 10Y yieldsFRED
OECD long-term government bond rates
Country
10Y yield
Avg CPI (10Y)
Real yield
🇺🇸 US United States
-
-
-
🇩🇪 DE Germany
-
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🇬🇧 GB United Kingdom
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🇯🇵 JP Japan
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🇨🇦 CA Canada
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🇫🇷 FR France
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🇮🇹 IT Italy
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🇦🇺 AU Australia
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🇨🇭 CH Switzerland
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🇪🇸 ES Spain
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🇰🇷 KR South Korea
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🇨🇳 CN China
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🇮🇳 IN India
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Crypto
Live spot prices for the top digital assets by market capitalization. CAGR computed from earliest available price.
Top 10 by market capLive
Ticker
Price
1D %
CAGR
Market cap
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
BTC Bitcoin
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-
-
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-
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ETH Ethereum
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
SOL Solana
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
XRP XRP (Ripple)
-
-
-
-
-
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-
BNB BNB (Binance)
-
-
-
-
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ADA Cardano
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DOGE Dogecoin
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AVAX Avalanche
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-
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TRX TRON
-
-
-
-
-
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LINK Chainlink
-
-
-
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-
-
-
Commodities
Live spot prices for the most-traded commodities. CAGR over 1Y, 5Y, 10Y and max available history.
Top commoditiesLive
Ticker
Price
1D %
CAGR
Market cap
1Y
5Y
10Y
Max
XAU Gold (GLD)
-
-
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-
XAG Silver (SLV)
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PLAT Platinum (PPLT)
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PALL Palladium (PALL)
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-
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COPPER Copper (CPER)
-
-
-
-
-
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-
WTI WTI crude oil (USO)
-
-
-
-
-
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-
BRENT Brent crude oil (BNO)
-
-
-
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-
NATGAS Natural gas (UNG)
-
-
-
-
-
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URAN Uranium (URA)
-
-
-
-
-
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AGRI Agriculture basket (DBA)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
US Economy
Growth, inflation, employment, rates, government debt, trade balance, and deficit - live from FRED.
Macro health heatmapFRED
GDP
-
loading
CPI
-
loading
Unemployment
-
loading
Fed Funds
-
loading
US Treasuries yield curveLive
FOMC dot plot
US GDPFRED
-
Nominal GDP, current dollars, annualized (updated quarterly)
GDP growthFRED
-
Real GDP, QoQ annualized rate
InflationFRED
-
CPI YoY (all items) · Fed avg target ~2%
Core CPI -
Interest ratesFRED
-
Fed Funds -
10Y Treasury -
30Y Mortgage -
Trade balanceFRED
-
Net exports of goods and services, in $ billions (updated quarterly)
US populationFRED
-
Total US resident population, in millions (updated monthly)
Labor market - supply, demand & priceFRED
Unemployment rateSupply
-
% of labor force without a job
Job openings rateDemand
-
Open jobs as % of total employment
Hires rateDemand
-
Monthly hires as % of employment
Real wage growthPrice
-
Median weekly real earnings, year-over-year growth (updated quarterly)
Loan delinquency ratesFRED
Share of balances 30+ days past due at all US commercial banks, by loan type (updated quarterly). Rising delinquencies are an early sign of household stress.
Credit cards
-
Mortgages
-
All loans & leases
-
Money supply & liquidityFRED
Monetary base (M0)Narrowest
-
Currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed, in $ billions (updated monthly)
Monetary base (M0) growthYoY
-
M0 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Money supply (M2)Broader
-
M2 year-over-year growth (updated monthly)
Fed balance sheetQE / QT
-
Total Fed assets, in $ trillions (updated weekly)
Government financesFRED
Government spending growthYoY growth
-
Federal spending year-over-year growth, in % (updated quarterly)
Debt / GDPStock
-
Federal debt as % of GDP (updated quarterly)
Federal deficitGap
-
Surplus (+) or deficit (−), in $ billions (updated annually)
Federal spending by categoryLive
Sources: Live data from the US Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS). Figures rounded to the nearest billion. FYTD = fiscal-year-to-date; US fiscal year runs Oct 1 to Sep 30.
Private capital dry powderTop 5 public PEas of Q1 2026
Uncalled committed capital at the largest publicly-traded private-equity managers - the closest free proxy for total US PE dry powder. Sum of these five firms represents ~50-60% of the industry.
BX · Blackstone
$200B
vs Q4: +16%
KKR
$115B
vs Q4: +6%
APO · Apollo
$73B
vs Q4: +9%
BAM · Brookfield
$111B
vs Q4: +1%
ARES · Ares
$156B
vs Q4: +64%
Top 5 combined
$655B
~50-60% of total US private-market dry powder (Bain estimates the industry total at ~$2.5T including all PE/VC/infrastructure)
Source: each firm's most recent quarterly disclosures (uncalled commitments / "available capital"); figures approximate and definitions vary slightly by firm (e.g. Ares' "available capital" spans its credit franchises). Updated quarterly. Industry context: Bain & Co Global Private Equity Report.
Global Economy
GDP share by country and global economic indicators. (FX pairs moved to the dedicated Foreign Exchange page.)
GDP by countryFRED + IMF
Nominal GDP in current US dollars, with each country's share of the ~$110T world total.
World GDPFRED + IMF WEO
-
Global GDP, in $ trillions. Historical actuals: World Bank via FRED (~12-month lag). Current year + forecasts: IMF World Economic Outlook (tagged "IMF est.").
Energy dashboard - nuclear, solar, wind, petroleumIEA / EIA 2024
Global primary energy by category2024
Energy consumption by country2024
Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024; EIA International Energy Statistics; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Figures rounded; updated annually.
US Real Estate Tracker
Home prices, housing activity, and mortgage rates from FRED. CRE cap rates from industry estimates.
Case-Shiller
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loading
Median price
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loading
30Y rate
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loading
Starts
-
loading
Permits
-
loading
Supply
-
loading
Home price indexFRED
-
Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted)
30Y mortgage rateFRED
-
Weekly average, 30-year fixed
Housing starts & permitsFRED
-
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Permits (gold) lead starts (blue) by 1–2 months - when gold turns down before blue, construction is rolling over.
Months of supplyFRED
-
How long inventory would last at current sales pace.
Seller's mkt <4 moBalanced 4–6 moBuyer's mkt >6 mo
Median days on marketVelocity
-
Median days a listing sits before going under contract. Lower = faster market.
CRE cap ratesCBRE
Source: CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey, H2 2025 · Updated 2026-01
Sector
Cap rate
10Y Avg
Spread vs 10Y Tsy
Indus Industrial
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Multi Multifamily
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Office Office
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Retail Retail
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Hotel Hospitality
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-
Portfolio Backtester
Pick any stocks or ETFs, set weights, pick a time horizon (preset or custom years), and backtest against the S&P 500. Toggle dividend reinvestment on or off.
Portfolio builder
ON
Allocation
Growth of $10,000
PortfolioS&P 500
Drawdown
PortfolioS&P 500
Risk & performance
US Economic Regime Detector
Growth × inflation framework inspired by Ray Dalio's macro regime model. Classifies the current US environment from live FRED data and shows which asset classes historically perform best.
Framework: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Current regimeLive
Detecting...
Analyzing GDP growth and CPI inflation trends from FRED data.
GDP growth -
CPI inflation -
Regime classification & what to hold
Regime
Conditions
Winners
Losers
Goldilocks
growth+ · inflation−
Equities, credit, growth stocks
Gold, commodities, cash
Reflation
growth+ · inflation+
Commodities, value, TIPS, EM
Long-duration bonds
Deflation
growth− · inflation−
Treasuries, cash, quality bonds
Equities, commodities, credit
Stagflation
growth− · inflation+
Gold, TIPS, commodities, cash
Equities, long bonds, credit
+ scoring methodology
Growth axis
Input: GDP YoY (GDPC1)
Rule: > 2% → growth+ · ≤ 2% → growth−
Score:tanh((GDP − 2) / 4)
Inflation axis
Input: CPI YoY (CPIAUCSL)
Rule: > 2.5% → inflation+ · ≤ 2.5% → inflation−
Score:tanh((CPI − 2.5) / 3)
Regime history (1970–present)FRED
GoldilocksReflationDeflationStagflation
Regime rotation backtestLive
Regime rotation- applies the live detector. Rebalances quarterly using last quarter's regime call, mirroring what an investor could have actually done in real time.
Perfect foresight- cheats. Rebalances using next quarter's regime call as if you already knew it (impossible in practice - shown as the theoretical ceiling the detector could reach).
S&P 500 buy & hold- the passive benchmark. 100% S&P 500 through the full period, no decisions.
Asset mix per regime
Goldilocks
STOCKS 50%
BONDS 50%
Reflation
STOCKS 50%
COMMOD 50%
Deflation
BONDS 50%
CASH 50%
Stagflation
COMMOD 50%
CASH 50%
-
Growth vs inflation signalsFRED
-
Recession Dodge StrategyAlternative
An alternative regime detector that swaps the lagging GDP / CPI threshold rules for forward-looking market signals. Same 4-quadrant framework, same asset rotation playbook, but the growth and inflation axes come from different inputs.
Why "recession dodge". NFCI is loose (≤ 0) about 71% of the time historically, so this detector lands in Goldilocks ~54% of quarters and only flips out during real credit-market stress (2008, brief 2020, brief 2022). In practice it behaves more like "hold 50/50 stocks/bonds; switch to bonds/cash when conditions tighten" than a 4-quadrant rotator. The backtest gets a higher Sharpe than the classic GDP+CPI detector, but the regime mix tells you that edge comes from picking the right side of recessions, not from rotating across all four corners.
Current Recession Dodge call
Detecting…
Computing NFCI + breakeven/commodity blend from latest FRED data.
Series: NFCI · T5YIE · WTI (DCOILWTICO) · copper (PCOPPUSDM) · broad dollar (DTWEXBGS). Backtest window starts when NFCI begins (≈ 1971); inflation composite degrades pre-2003 (no T5YIE). Same asset playbook (Goldilocks/Reflation/Deflation/Stagflation) as the main classification card.
US Economic Calendar
Every major US economic release - Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, PCE, FOMC, GDP, retail sales, ISM, jobless claims and more - with release times in ET, impact ratings, and the previous print from FRED. Dates are recurring estimates; exact dates and consensus are pinned per release as data lands.
Impact: High Medium LowET
Building calendar…
Schedule: hand-curated recurring rules. Previous prints: FRED (live on the deployed site). Consensus/estimates: maintained per release. Times in ET.
Recession Risk Calculator
Probability of a US economic recession (GDP contraction + rising unemployment, the kind the NBER officially declares) over the next 12 months. Weighted blend of 7 macro leading indicators - hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For market-drawdown risk (stock prices falling, not the economy contracting) see the separate Crash Risk tool.
US economic recession probability
-
loading
LowModerateHigh
Indicator scorecardFRED · LIVE
Yield curve inversion historyFRED
Shaded red regions show when the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread went negative (inverted). Every one of those windows since 1969 preceded a recession, except the 2022-24 period which has so far only produced slowing growth.
Crash Risk Calculator
Probability of a major US stock-market drawdown (20%+) ahead. Weighted blend of 6 strictly-leading indicators - each one moves BEFORE drawdowns, never with or after them. Three short-lead stress signals (HY credit spread, 10Y−2Y yield curve, NFCI financial conditions) and three long-lead valuation signals (CAPE, EY spread, dividend yield). Hit rate shown next to each so you can see which ones have actually worked. For US economic-recession risk (GDP / unemployment) see the separate Recession Risk tool.
US drawdown probability
-
loading
CheapFairBubble
Reading live valuation metrics against their 30-year history…
Indicator scorecardShiller · FRED · LIVE
Composite probability historyLive
-
Composite drawdown probability over time, recomputed each month from the same threshold table the live gauge uses. Spikes above 60% lined up with 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007–08, and 2022; dips below 25% lined up with 1982 and 2009.
Compound Interest
Change any value and the rest adjust automatically. Edit the final balance to solve backwards for the initial investment.
The most-watched stock traders in the US Senate and House - current holdings and most recent trades per member, color-coded by party, with links to each official congressional website.
Most-watched congressional traders
Live tracker of current holdings and most recent trades for each profiled US Senator and Representative. Click any ticker for its chart.
Earnings & IPO Calendar
The week ahead for US equities - which companies report earnings (with the consensus EPS estimate) and which new names are about to go public. A quick way to spot volatility events before they hit your holdings.
Upcoming earningsNext 14 days
Date
Symbol
When
EPS est.
Revenue est.
Upcoming IPOsNext 30 days
Date
Symbol
Company
Exchange
Price
Shares
Data from Finnhub (earnings consensus and the IPO schedule). Estimates and IPO terms are revised often and can be withdrawn - confirm against the company's filings before trading. "When" is Pre-mkt (before the open), After close, or Midday.
Rental Property Analyzer
Institutional-style underwriting for a single rental: cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, IRR - with a full value-add story (renovation period, stabilization period, exit cap, interior + exterior capex) and a year-by-year cash flow projection.
Cap rate
0%
Cash-on-cash
0%
Monthly cash flow
$0
IRR (hold period)
0%
Core property assumptionsSteady-state
FinancingDebt & equity
Value-add assumptionsRenovation & capex
The renovation/stabilization ramp and capital spend. Leave at defaults (or set current = renovated = stabilized rent and capex to 0) for a straightforward buy-and-hold.
Cash flow & equity over timePer year
Year-by-year projection
Year
Rent
Op. exp.
NOI
Debt svc
Cash flow
Property value
Loan balance
Equity
IRR uses the exit-cap assumption to mark the property at sale (NOI at exit ÷ exit cap), net of selling costs and remaining loan balance. Renovation period = months with no rent and full capex burn; stabilization period = months with current-rent inflow ramping toward stabilized rent. Excludes income taxes, depreciation recapture and 1031 exchanges.
Mortgage Calculator
Compare loan terms, see amortization schedules, and calculate savings from extra payments.
Monthly debt service
$0
Total interest
$0
Total paid
$0
all payments + down
Loan-to-value
0%
Loan inputs
$
%
Down: $80,000 | Loan: $320,000
%
$
%/yr
Amortization chart
15-year vs 30-year comparison
15-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
30-year term
Loan amount$0
Monthly payment$0
Total principal$0
Total interest$0
Total paid$0
Interest savings with 15-year: $0
Amortization schedule
Year
Month
Payment
Principal
Interest
Balance
Home equity
Home value
Unreal. appr.
Total equity
Buy vs Rent Property Calculator
Should you buy a home or rent the same place and invest the difference? Plug in real numbers for one specific property and see who comes out ahead, year by year.
▸How this works
Use the same property for both sides - the home's listing price on the buy side, its asking rent on the rent side. Sally buys the home; Jack rents the very same place. Both start with the same savings and earn the same monthly income, so it's a true apples-to-apples comparison.
Sally deploys her down payment plus closing costs into the home and keeps the rest invested. She pays mortgage P&I plus property taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance every month. Jack invests his entire starting savings and pays the asking rent each month.
Each month both characters take their identical income, pay their housing cost, and invest the leftover at your chosen return rate (e.g. S&P 500 ~8% long-run). End-of-horizon net worth = invested portfolio (both) + home equity (Sally only).
Breakeven year
-
When buying beats renting
Sally's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Jack's net worth
$0
At end of time horizon
Advantage
-
At end of time horizon
Personal assumptionsSame for both Sally and Jack
$
$/mo
yrs
%
Sally's home purchase
$
%
%
yrs
%
$/mo
$/mo
$/mo
%/yr
%
%
%/yr
$0
Jack's rental life
$
%
Net worth over time
Monthly cost comparison
Year-by-year comparison
Year
Sally cost/yr
Jack cost/yr
Sally's loan equity
Sally's appreciation
Sally's investments
Sally total NW
Jack total NW
Who wins
Buy vs Lease Car Calculator
Donald pays cash, Frank finances, Nancy rolls leases - all on identical income, savings, and hold period. Each one invests whatever income is left over after their own car payments and expenses every month; ending net worth = portfolio + car equity.
Donald (buy cash)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Frank (finance)
$0
Portfolio + car equity
Nancy (lease)
$0
Invested portfolio only
Best scenario
-
Who wins, by how much
Donald total / mo
$0
insurance + maintenance only (paid cash)
Frank total / mo
$0
loan + insurance + maintenance
Nancy total / mo
$0
lease + insurance + fees
Personal assumptionsSame for Donald, Frank, and Nancy
$
$/mo
yrs
%
%
%
24%
VehicleSame car for both scenarios
$
%
mi
$/mo
%/yr
$0
Tax incentives & business use
%
Pick an EV status or LLC category to see tax savings applied to the winner.
Donald buys (cash)
$/yr
$0
Frank finances
%
%
mo
$/yr
$0/mo
Nancy leases
$/mo
mo
$
$
$
/yr
$/mi
$700/mo
Net worth over time
Cumulative out-of-pocket cost
Year-by-year breakdown
Year
Donald net worth
Frank net worth
Nancy net worth
Donald spent
Frank spent
Nancy spent
FIRE & Retirement Calculator
When can you reach financial independence? Enter what you have, what you save, and what you'll spend in retirement - see the year your portfolio can fund your life on the 4% rule, plus your Coast FIRE number. Everything is in today's dollars (use a real, after-inflation return).
FIRE = Financial Independence, Retire Early. The goal is a portfolio big enough that it can cover your living costs indefinitely, so paid work becomes optional. The 4% rule is the rule of thumb for how big "big enough" is: withdraw 4% of the portfolio in your first retirement year and adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year after, and historically a stock/bond mix had a high chance of lasting about 30 years. Turned around, 4% means your target is 25× your annual spending (1 ÷ 0.04 = 25). The tabs below pressure-test that target - a Monte Carlo fan of outcomes, a backtest of the 4% rule through every market since 1928, and a dividend-reinvestment projection.
Your FI number
$0
Years to FI
-
FI age
-
Coast FIRE number
$0
FIRE style
yrs
$
$
$
%
%
Path to financial independenceFI number
Contributions Total balance (green above blue = growth) FI number (target)
Year-by-year projection
Age
Year
Contributed (yr)
Growth (yr)
Balance
% to FI
All figures are in today's dollars, so use a real (after-inflation) return - the long-run real return of a 100% stock portfolio has been ~7%, a 60/40 ~5%. The 4% rule (25× spending) comes from the Trinity study and assumes a ~30-year retirement; longer retirements or early retirement argue for 3.25–3.5%. Coast FIRE assumes a target retirement age of 65 and no further contributions. Excludes Social Security, pensions and taxes on withdrawals.
Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
A single average return hides the risk. This runs 1,000 randomized market paths through your accumulation and retirement years - so instead of one tidy number you see the full fan of outcomes and the real probability your money lasts. Everything is in today's dollars (use a real return).
Chance money lasts
-
Median at retirement
$0
Median at end
$0
Unlucky case (10th %)
$0
$
$
yrs
$
yrs
%
%
1,000 paths, drawn from a normal return each year.
Fan of outcomestoday's dollars
10th–90th percentile 25th–75th percentile Median path
Each of 1,000 paths draws an independent annual return from a normal distribution with your mean and volatility, compounding the balance while adding contributions before retirement and subtracting spending after. "Chance money lasts" is the fraction of paths that never hit zero during retirement. Real markets have fat tails, autocorrelation and sequence risk that a normal distribution understates, so treat this as a guide, not a guarantee. Results are seeded so they're stable as you adjust inputs.
Safe Withdrawal Rate - The 4% Rule, Backtested
Would your retirement have survived the Depression, the 1970s stagflation, the dot-com bust and 2008? This runs your withdrawal plan through every historical starting year since 1928 using real S&P 500 and Treasury returns adjusted for actual inflation - the same rolling-period test behind the famous 4% rule.
Historical success rate
-
Periods tested
0
Median ending (real)
$0
Worst case
$0
$
%
yrs
Try
Every historical retirement, overlaidtoday's dollars
Survived Ran out of money Median path - each line is one starting year's inflation-adjusted balance.
Uses annual S&P 500 total returns and 10-year US Treasury returns (Damodaran/NYU Stern) deflated by actual CPI inflation (BLS), 1928–2025. Each rolling period withdraws an inflation-adjusted amount from a portfolio rebalanced annually to your stock/bond mix; a period "fails" if the balance hits zero before the end. The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study; it held up across nearly all historical 30-year windows but is not guaranteed - future returns, longer retirements and a 2025-style starting valuation can differ. Ignores fees, taxes and Social Security.
Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) Calculator
See the power of reinvesting dividends versus taking the cash - the income snowball that compounds share count over decades. Toggle the tax drag to see how much a taxable account loses to dividend taxes each year versus an IRA or 401(k).
Value (reinvested)
$0
Total dividends
$0
Reinvesting adds
$0
Lost to tax drag
$0
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
Reinvest vs take the cash
Dividends reinvested Dividends taken as cash
Annual dividend income
The income snowball: dividends paid each year as your reinvested share count grows.
Models a starting price of $100/share scaled to your investment. Each year, dividends are paid on shares held (growing at the dividend-growth rate), taxed if the account is taxable, and the after-tax amount buys more shares at the year-end price. The cash path holds shares constant and accumulates after-tax dividends without reinvesting. Tax drag is the value a taxable account loses versus the same holding in a tax-advantaged account. Excludes share-price volatility, fees and dividend cuts; assumes dividends stay qualified.
House Affordability Calculator
How much house can you actually afford? Lenders cap your housing payment at ~28% of gross income (front-end) and your total debt at ~36% (back-end). Enter your income and debts and we'll solve for the max home price - the inverse of a mortgage calculator.
Max home price
$0
Loan amount
$0
Monthly payment
$0
Down payment
0%
Lending standard
$
$
$
%
yrs
%
%
$/mo
Monthly payment breakdown
Affordable price vs mortgage rate
How your max home price shrinks as rates rise - the dot marks your current rate.
Front-end ratio caps housing cost (principal, interest, tax, insurance, HOA, PMI) at a share of gross income; back-end ratio caps housing plus all other debt. The binding constraint sets your price. PMI of 0.5%/yr is added automatically when the down payment is under 20%. This estimates borrowing capacity, not a recommendation - many buyers choose to spend well below the max. Excludes maintenance, utilities and closing costs.
Debt Payoff: Snowball vs Avalanche
List your debts and an extra monthly payment. The avalanche method attacks the highest interest rate first (mathematically cheapest); the snowball attacks the smallest balance first (psychologically easier). See which clears your debt faster and how much interest each saves - both keep your total monthly payment constant and roll each cleared debt's payment into the next.
Total debt
$0
Debt-free in
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Interest (avalanche)
$0
Avalanche saves
$0
Your debts
Debt nameBalanceAPR %Min /mo
$
Method comparison
Balance over time
Avalanche Snowball
Your payoff plan - what to pay, and when
Each month, every debt accrues interest at APR÷12, minimum payments are made on all active debts, and all remaining money (extra payment plus the minimums freed up by already-paid debts) is thrown at the target debt - highest APR for avalanche, smallest balance for snowball. Avalanche always pays the least total interest. Snowball can feel better because you clear individual debts sooner. If a debt's minimum doesn't cover its monthly interest, it will never amortize - raise the minimum or extra payment.
Roth vs Traditional IRA / 401(k)
Pay tax now or later? Roth contributions are taxed today and grow tax-free; Traditional contributions are deducted today and taxed when you withdraw. This puts the same dollars into each and shows what you actually keep at the end of retirement, after tax - plus what each costs you in take-home pay today.
2025 contribution limits.IRA: $7,000/yr ($8,000 if 50+) combined across Roth + Traditional. The Roth IRA phases out at higher income (~$150k single / $236k married); a Traditional IRA is always allowed, but its deduction phases out if you (or a spouse) have a workplace plan. 401(k): $23,500/yr ($31,000 if 50+) - both Roth and Traditional versions, with no income limit.
What you can hold. An IRA can hold almost anything a brokerage can - stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, bonds, CDs (and, through a self-directed custodian, even real estate or crypto) - but not life insurance or collectibles (art, gems, most coins). A 401(k) is limited to the plan's menu, usually a short list of index and target-date funds, unless it offers a self-directed brokerage window.
Roth (after tax)
$0
Traditional (after tax)
$0
Winner
-
Total contributed
$0
$
yrs
yrs
%
%
%
After-tax value in retirement
Roth advantage vs your retirement tax rate
The higher your retirement tax rate, the more Roth's tax-free withdrawals are worth versus Traditional - the dot marks your assumption.
Both paths contribute the same dollar amount each year from your current age to your retirement age. Roth is funded with after-tax dollars and withdrawn tax-free; Traditional is contributed pre-tax (so it costs less take-home today), grows tax-deferred, and is taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal. We show the actual after-tax balance each leaves you at retirement - no hypothetical side account. Ignores income limits, employer match, required minimum distributions, state taxes and future tax-law changes. An employer match (free money) makes capturing the 401(k) match worth it regardless of which type you choose.
Net Worth Tracker
Add up what you own and subtract what you owe - add custom items like jewelry, art or crypto - then see how your net worth ranks against US households (Fed Survey of Consumer Finances) and against every adult on Earth (UBS Global Wealth Report), overall and for your age group.
Net worth
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Total assets
$0
Total liabilities
$0
US percentile
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Assets - what you own$0
Liabilities - what you owe$0
Asset composition
Where you stand
US household net worth percentiles and age-group medians from the Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (released October 2023; figures via DQYDJ). Net worth = assets minus liabilities. Percentile is interpolated from the published distribution and is an estimate. Median US household net worth in 2022 was about $192,000; the top 10% started near $1.9M and the top 1% near $13.7M. Global figures: UBS Global Wealth Report 2023 (per adult, year-end 2022): global median wealth ~$8,654, top 10% from ~$137,000, top 1% from ~$1.08M. US net worth is per household and global per adult, so the two aren't strictly comparable.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Estimator
Selling a loser to bank a capital loss saves tax now - but it also lowers your cost basis, so most of that saving is deferred, not erased. This estimates the real, honest value: the up-front saving you can reinvest, minus the tax you'll eventually owe, plus the rate arbitrage on the $3,000 ordinary-income offset.
Tax saved this year
$0
Loss carried forward
$0
Net benefit (today's $)
$0
Value kept per $ loss
0%
$
$
%
%
%
yrs
%
The economics, in today's dollars
Net benefit vs how long you defer
The longer until you sell, the more the deferred tax shrinks in present value - the dot marks your horizon.
Tax-loss harvesting is mostly tax deferral, not free money. Selling at a loss and rebuying a similar (not substantially identical - beware the 30-day wash-sale rule) asset lowers your basis, so you'll owe tax on a larger gain later. The real value is (1) the time value of investing the up-front saving, and (2) rate arbitrage - offsetting ordinary income at a high rate now versus paying the lower cap-gains rate later. This is an estimate; it ignores AMT, net investment income tax, the long-term/short-term distinction within gains, and assumes the replacement recovers. Not tax advice.
Lump Sum vs Dollar-Cost Averaging
Got a windfall - a bonus, an inheritance, a 401(k) rollover? Conventional wisdom says ease in slowly. But because markets rise more often than they fall, investing it all at once has historically beaten spreading it out most of the time. Here's the backtest across every starting point since 1928.
Lump sum won
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Avg lump advantage
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DCA won
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DCA's best win
-
$
S&P 500 (total return), each tranche at the start of the year
Lump sum vs DCA, by starting year
Lump sum ended ahead DCA ended ahead - each bar is how much lump sum beat (or trailed) DCA for that start year.
Backtest uses annual S&P 500 total returns (Damodaran/NYU), 1928–2025. "Lump sum" invests the whole amount at the start of year one; "DCA" invests an equal slice at the start of each year over the spread, with uninvested cash assumed to earn nothing. Both are valued at the end of the spread. Because stocks rise in about two-thirds of years, lump sum usually wins - dollar-cost averaging mainly helps when you'd have bought right before a crash, and its real value is behavioral (it's easier to stomach). The classic Vanguard study finds lump sum wins ~68% of rolling 12-month periods; spreading over more years widens the lump-sum edge.
Yield Curve History
The US Treasury yield curve, animated from 1976 to today. Watch it twist from the towering double-digit rates of the Volcker era through every inversion - when short rates rise above long rates, a signal that has preceded every modern recession. Press play, or scrub through history.
Showing
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2s10s spread
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10y–3m spread
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Shape
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Drag to scrub · 1976 → today
The curve on this date
2s10s spread through history
Below zero (shaded red) = inverted. The marker tracks the date shown at left.
Monthly constant-maturity US Treasury yields from FRED (TB3MS, GS1, GS2, GS5, GS10, GS30), 1976–present. The 30-year series has a gap from 2002–2006 when the bond was discontinued. An inverted curve (2s10s or 10y–3m below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–18 months, though timing varies. Yields are nominal.
Foreign Exchange
Live currency conversion, historical charts for major pairs, and cross rates.
ConverterLive rates
Result
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Fetching rates...
USD/EUR1 year
Dollar index (DXY)FRED
Spot
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YTD
--
1Y
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Basket composition
Currency
Weight
EUR · Euro
57.6%
JPY · Japanese yen
13.6%
GBP · British pound
11.9%
CAD · Canadian dollar
9.1%
SEK · Swedish krona
4.2%
CHF · Swiss franc
3.6%
A weaker dollar tends to lift gold, EM equities, commodities, and US large-cap earnings from foreign sales. A stronger dollar does the opposite.
EUR / USDFRED
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US dollars per 1 euro (updated daily)
USD / JPYFRED
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Japanese yen per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
GBP / USDFRED
-
US dollars per 1 British pound (updated daily)
USD / CNYFRED
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Chinese yuan per 1 US dollar (updated daily)
Top 10 weekly appreciating vs USDWeekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
Currency
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
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Top 10 weekly depreciating vs USDWeekly
Sorted by 1-week % change. Columns show the same currency's move against USD over longer windows.
Currency
1W
1M
3M
6M
1Y
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Cross rates vs USD
Currency
Rate (per 1 USD)
Inverse (USD per 1)
Stock Screener
Filter the largest US stocks by valuation, profitability, growth, dividend, leverage, and risk. Click any column header to sort.
Filters
Style presets
Famous investors
Results
Top Stocks
Compare the top 25 US stocks (by total return since inception, across major sectors) on risk and return metrics.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Stock Analyzer
Type any US stock ticker for a full equity research report: DCF, comps, ratio analysis, management, risks, and a conviction price target. Stocks only - not for ETFs, mutual funds, or closed-end funds (use the Portfolio Backtester for those).
Compare the top 25 fixed-income products (by total return since inception, within each category) on yields, risk metrics, and tax efficiency across treasuries, munis, corporates, REITs, and dividend equities.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universeLive
Yields refreshed live. Risk metrics from Morningstar/PortfoliosLab.
Top REITs
Compare the top 25 REITs and REIT ETFs (by total return since inception) on risk and return.
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
Top ETFs
Compare the top ETFs across 10 categories - ranked by long-run CAGR (net of fees), with filters for size, age, and expense ratio.
FactorLoading…
Risk-return frontier
Y:
X:
Regression anchored at Rf=4.3% (3-mo T-bill).
Investment universe
No ETFs match this sub-category.
Great Investors
The 28 most influential investors in history - what each believed and what they’d likely do in today’s market. Each card links to the closest backtestable portfolio in the Killer Portfolios library.
The legends
Sort
28 investors
Each card: the core philosophy, what they’d likely be doing right now, and a link to the closest matching portfolio.
What active managers are doing nowSnapshot
The publicly-known posture and most-recent notable moves of today’s biggest active investors - curated from their filings, shareholder letters and interviews. A snapshot for context, not live 13F data, and it changes.
Asset Correlations Updated yearly
Normal-period averages (~2010–2025) vs crash periods (GFC, COVID, 2022 bear). Plus longest-term matrix using maximum overlapping data.
Normal periods
Crash periods
−1.0 (inverse)+1.0 (correlated)
Longest-term correlation matrix
Each cell uses the maximum overlapping data window for that pair. Years shown below each value.
50+ yrs30–49 yrs10–29 yrs<10 yrs
Data availability by asset
Database sources+ expand
The AI Race
Country and company scorecards on the eight metrics that define the AI race: compute, models, training flops, investment, chips, patents, talent, and data-center power.
Country scorecard - share of globalStanford HAI · WIPO · Synergy
Each country's share of the global total on six measurable AI-race metrics. Darker bar = bigger share.
Country
Private $
Models
Talent
Patents
DC capacity
DC power
Data-center power capacitySynergy '24
Top countries by total data-center capacity (GW). Compute = power; these are the physical plants where AI gets built.
Data-center electricity useIEA '24
Annual TWh consumed by data centers. 2026 projections shown as lighter bars.
Private AI investment (cumulative 2013–2024)Stanford HAI '25
Notable AI models released (2024)Epoch AI '25
Top AI labs by training computeEpoch AI '25
Flagship-model training compute, log scale. Bigger = more compute thrown at the largest public model.
Lab
Country
Flagship model
Training FLOPs
Log10(FLOPs)
Notable AI models released per year, globalEpoch AI '25
Top-tier AI talent concentrationMacroPolo '23
AI patent share (WIPO 2024)WIPO '24
Data sources+ expand
Metric
Series
Provider
Private $
Cumulative private AI investment (2013–2024)
Stanford HAI - AI Index Report 2025
Models
Notable Models database (model counts + training compute)
Epoch AI
DC power
National electricity consumption by data centers (2024 estimate)
IEA - Electricity 2024 (Data Centres chapter)
DC capacity
Hyperscale data-center capacity (quarterly)
Synergy Research Group
Patents
Global AI patent filings by country (2024)
WIPO
Talent
Top-tier researcher distribution (Global AI Talent Tracker, 2023)
MacroPolo
Training FLOPs
Frontier-model training compute (Epoch credible estimates)
Epoch AI
Caveats: compute and chip figures are estimates - labs and chipmakers rarely disclose exact numbers. All values are static snapshots, not live. Update cadence is roughly annual; next refresh expected with AI Index Report 2026 (April 2026).
Killer Portfolios
A library of famous, backtested portfolio strategies anyone can copy with a few ETFs. All data is approximate and based on historical returns - past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Portfolios
0
Highest CAGR
-
Best Sharpe
-
Shallowest DD
-
Comparison table
Portfolio
CAGR
Max drawdown
Sharpe
Best year
Worst year
Stocks %
Card stats are full-history reference values (US data, 1972–2025, annual rebalancing) sourced from Portfolio Charts / Portfolio Visualizer, refreshed annually; click any card to recompute live from its ETFs over their actual overlap. Sharpe ratios assume Rf ≈ 3-month T-bill (~4% long-run avg); ±0.05 vs source is normal due to differing Rf and rebalance assumptions. Excludes taxes and transaction costs.
Articles
Original research and analysis by Luis Nunez. Also available on Substack for email delivery.
Gold as a Crisis Asset
War, inflation, Fed cycles - since 1971.
Article12 min
Full interactive articleWartime data, inflation onset, Fed cycles, CAGR, charts
Asset Class Returns by Decade Updated yearly
Annualized total returns (geometric mean) for every major asset class, 1930s through 2020s. Includes dividends and reinvestment where applicable.
negativestrong positive
Total returns heatmap
Decade
Stocks
Cash
Gov Bonds
Corp Bonds
Housing
REITs
Gold
Inflation
Data sources+ expand
Asset
Series
Provider
Stocks
S&P 500 total return (incl. dividends)
NYU Stern / Damodaran
Cash
3-Month US Treasury Bills
NYU Stern / FRED
Gov Bonds
10-Year US Treasury total return
NYU Stern / Damodaran
Corp Bonds
Moody's BAA Corporate Bond total return
Damodaran / Barclays
Housing
Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (price only)
Robert Shiller / FRED
REITs
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs total return (since 1972)
NAREIT
Gold
Year-end spot price per troy oz
Kitco / World Gold Council
Inflation
CPI-U annual average
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Annualized geometric means for the full decade (Jan 1 of start year to Dec 31 of end year). 2020s covers 2020–2024. Real estate reflects home-price appreciation only - total return including rental income would be higher. "N/A" indicates data not available for that period.
Finance Dictionary
Search any finance term and get a clear, visual definition. Click any cross-referenced term inside a definition to jump straight to it.
No terms match your search.
Equity Drivers
What is actually driving stock prices right now - decomposed into earnings vs multiple, Mag-7 vs the rest of the S&P 493, buybacks, liquidity, fiscal, and valuation gravity. Updated daily.
The rally is mostly multiple expansion + Mag-7 earnings, with a drag from real rates and the dollar.
The six forces in play
Mag-7 contribution to SPX returnYTD
Decomposition is approximate, hand-curated quarterly from public S&P, FactSet and Fed H.4.1 data. Not a real-time feed.
Capital Flows
Where the world’s money is moving right now - by asset class, country, US sector, and alts (crypto, VC, private credit). YTD aggregate, refreshed monthly.
Total ETF net flows YTD
-
all asset classes
Where it’s going
-
largest inflow
Where it’s leaving
-
largest outflow
Fastest mover
-
biggest momentum shift
Asset class flows · YTD net$B
US sector flows · YTDSPDR sectors
The Examples column lists representative funds for each destination - the money is flowing into the asset class, not only those tickers. The two tables are different lenses, so they can diverge: "Real estate" shows net inflows at the asset-class level (all listed REITs, e.g. VNQ) while the S&P 500 real-estate sector (XLRE) can be flat or outflowing - it only covers the ~31 real-estate names inside the S&P 500.
Country / region drilldownEquity flows
Alt flows · crypto, VC, private creditYTD aggregate
Free sources where available (ICI weekly, TIC monthly, public ETF data). Some flow data is hand-curated monthly.
Sector rotation - total return by windowLive
All 11 GICS sectors across time windows, color-coded so leadership and laggards jump out. Click a column header to sort; green = outperforming, red = underperforming. Returns are price-based from the SPDR sector ETFs.
Live data from the SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLY, XLP, XLI, XLB, XLU, XLRE, XLC) versus SPY for the S&P 500. Returns are price-only (excluding dividends) over trailing trading-day windows and year-to-date, from one year of daily closes. Sectors beating SPY are gaining leadership; markets data may be delayed, so refresh to re-pull.
Strategy Tracker
Side-by-side performance of the most-discussed long-term portfolio strategies. Same period, same fee assumption, same rebalance cadence - so the numbers are actually comparable.
10Y winner
-
highest CAGR
Best Sharpe
-
risk-adjusted leader
Smallest drawdown
-
most defensive
YTD leader
-
current momentum
Strategy scoreboardHover a name for what it is · click any column to sort
Strategy
YTD
1Y
3Y CAGR
5Y CAGR
10Y CAGR
Vol
Max DD
Sharpe
Calendar-year heatmap10Y · annual
Strategy returns approximated from their underlying ETF baskets (Yahoo prices), monthly rebalancing, net of 0.05% blended fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
// About this site
Arsenal.finance is an open collection of financial tools, live market data, and original research. Everything is meticulously built from scratch.
// Why
To give retail investors institutional-grade tools without the institutional price tag, and help them make substantially smarter financial decisions in the process.
// About me, Luis Nunez
Finance and data enthusiast based in Miami, originally from Venezuela. Contrarian by nature. I build financial tools, research macro trends, and obsess over portfolio construction, market cycles, and economic history. I love placing bets and taking risks. Perhaps a bit too much.
// Investment philosophy
Most people should own the market and skip the stock picking, market timing, and price predictions. The data backs this up. Unless you work inside a company, you have no real insight into what's happening there. The only traders I've seen make money consistently are insiders. Everyone else might have a good couple of years before ending up roughly where they started. Beating the market over a long horizon is rare enough to qualify as a statistical anomaly.
Rare is not impossible however. And picking stocks, trading events, calling tops and bottoms is genuinely fun, part of why we're here in the first place. So I advocate for a hybrid approach: split your portfolio disproportionately in two. A core portfolio that holds the majority of your money and lets you sleep at night, and a betting portfolio that lets you age without the regret of missing the trade you were sure about.
Having witnessed firsthand the decline of Venezuela, once a rich and prosperous country, it shouldn't be a surprise that I'm more a fan of Smith, Friedman and Hayek than Keynes. Free markets allocate capital better than central planners ever could. Monetary policy matters more than fiscal stimulus. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Government intervention usually creates more distortions than it solves.
I also believe index funds are one of the greatest creators of prosperity in the world. They democratized wealth building. Before Vanguard launched the first index fund in 1976, investing was a game rigged for Wall Street insiders with high fees and information advantages. Today, anyone with $100 can own a slice of the 500 largest companies on earth for virtually nothing. That's prosperity at scale.
// Support
I do this because I enjoy it, at no cost to you, but I do incur moderate software and data costs. If you find my work useful, tips of any amount are appreciated.
55% Nasdaq, 25% Tesla, 10% gold, 10% bitcoin. No regrets. Started in May 2020 (actually started earlier but let's call that period my learning curve and hit delete). You can do the math and see how I've done in the portfolio backtester.