Sequence-of-returns risk
InvestingDefinition
The risk that a poor return sequence (especially early in retirement when you're withdrawing) permanently damages portfolio sustainability. The same average return over 30 years can produce dramatically different end-of-life balances depending on the order of good and bad years.
Bear markets in years 1-5 of retirement are catastrophic; bear markets in years 25-30 barely matter. Mitigation: bond ladders, dynamic withdrawal rules (e.g., 4% rule with floors and ceilings), reducing equity exposure into and immediately after retirement.
Bear markets in years 1-5 of retirement are catastrophic; bear markets in years 25-30 barely matter. Mitigation: bond ladders, dynamic withdrawal rules (e.g., 4% rule with floors and ceilings), reducing equity exposure into and immediately after retirement.